Big 12 Football Preview: Parity, New Faces, and a Wide-Open Title Race

By Abe Rakov

The Big 12 football season arrives with more intrigue and uncertainty than usual — even for the generally unpredictable conference. The league’s expansion to 16 teams created a dynamic, coast-to-coast conference where new rivalries are quickly forming and traditional hierarchies are being challenged. Last year’s surprise champion, Arizona State, proved that in the modern Big 12 nearly any team can win any week. This year, the conference landscape is even more volatile, with no clear favorite and as many as eight teams with legitimate hopes of reaching the title game in Arlington.

Like in most conferences in this new era of college football, the offseason was marked by a flurry of transfer activity, coaching changes, and high-profile player departures — most notably at quarterback for several programs. Coaching changes could also have an outsized impact: The return of Rich Rodriguez to West Virginia and Scott Frost to UCF brings could revitalize the schools, though just about every facet of being a head coach is different from when they left.

Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Kansas State are the most stable programs coming into the season, while Oklahoma State, Arizona and UCF are likely in rebuilding mode. Overall, the gap between the top and bottom of the Big 12 continues to shrink.

That’s why the Big 12’s depth will likely be its defining feature in 2025. Even traditional lower-tier teams have upgraded through the portal and are capable of upsets. Defenses are getting faster and more aggressive to try and catch up to the league’s high-powered offenses, while the offenses continue to innovate.

With all that in mind, the race to the Big 12 Championship Game will almost certainly go down to the last couple of weeks. The conference has turned into college football’s most compelling as other league’s have a wider gap between the top and the bottom.

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona enters 2025 in a full rebuild after a tumultuous offseason that saw the departure of star receiver Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL and an influx of 53 new players, including 25 transfers. Second-year head coach Brent Brennan faces a big challenge in finding chemistry and cohesion with such a dramatically overhauled roster. Quarterback Noah Fifita returns, providing valuable experience under center, but he’ll be working with a largely unproven supporting cast. The Wildcats’ offense will rely heavily on Ismail Mahdi, a dynamic Sun Belt transfer running back expected to be the focal point of the ground game. Arizona’s defense, which struggled with consistency last year, will need immediate contributions from several transfers to avoid being a liability. With expectations tempered — ESPN’s FPI projects fewer than five wins — the Wildcats are likely to spend the season developing young talent and building for the future rather than contending in a deep conference.

Odds to Win Big 12: +5500 (15/16)

Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils are the consensus favorite to repeat as Big 12 champions, returning 17 starters — more than any other Power Four program — and nearly every key contributor from last year’s stunning College Football Playoff run. Quarterback Sam Leavitt, who impressed with his playmaking ability in 2024, leads an offense that must replace running back Cam Skattebo but still boasts plenty of firepower. Arizona State’s defense, anchored by a veteran secondary and a deep linebacker corps, is expected to be one of the league’s best. With a favorable schedule and a roster built for both physicality and speed, the Sun Devils have a legitimate shot not just at the Big 12 title, but another playoff appearance. The biggest question is whether they can handle the pressure of being a target after last year’s underdog story.

Odds to Win Big 12: +650 (3/16)

Baylor Bears

Baylor enters 2025 as one of the league’s most intriguing teams, riding the momentum of a six-game win streak to close last year’s regular season. Head coach Dave Aranda has revitalized the program, and the Bears return quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who threw for over 3,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in a breakout campaign. Running back Bryson Washington provides balance to an offense that can attack both through the air and on the ground. The Bears’ defense, long a calling card under Aranda, is expected to take a step forward with several key returners and a handful of impact transfers. Baylor’s ceiling will depend on whether the defense can consistently generate stops against the Big 12’s high-powered offenses. With a veteran-laden roster and renewed confidence, Baylor is a trendy pick to make a serious run at the conference championship.

Odds to Win Big 12: +650 (3/16)

BYU Cougars

BYU enters 2025 with uncertainty at quarterback after Jake Retzlaff’s departure, turning to either redshirt sophomore Ryder Burton or transfer Kadin Semonza — both talented but unproven at the FBS level. The Cougars still boast a strong supporting cast, led by running back LJ Martin and receiver Chase Roberts, and three returning starters on the offensive line should help steady the offense. Defensively, BYU must replace standout lineman Tyler Batty but returns key leaders like Ben Bywater and Micah Harper. For BYU to reach bowl eligibility, the new quarterback must develop quickly and avoid costly mistakes, while the defense needs to generate more turnovers and pressure.

Odds to Win Big 12: +1900 (9/16)

Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati faces a pivotal season under third-year head coach Scott Satterfield, who is under pressure after missing bowl games in three of his last five years as a head coach. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby returns to lead an offense that will look to be more explosive, but the Bearcats must find a way to replace the production of now-49ers rookie running back Corey Kiner. On defense, tackle Dontay Corleone is a bona fide star and will anchor a unit that needs to be more consistent against the run. Cincinnati brought in 15 transfers to address depth concerns, particularly in the secondary and at receiver. The Bearcats’ schedule offers opportunities for early wins, but the team’s success will hinge on how quickly the new faces can mesh and whether the offense can avoid the scoring droughts that plagued them last season. A bowl appearance is within reach, but anything less could put Satterfield’s job security in serious jeopardy.

Odds to Win Big 12: +3000 (11/16)

Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado embarks on its 2025 campaign without the star power of Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, both now in the NFL, leaving head coach Deion Sanders with a major rebuilding project (which is why so many people were surprised he stayed put). The Buffaloes landed the Big 12’s No. 2 transfer class, highlighted by Columbia transfer receiver Bryson Canty, but the quarterback position remains unsettled between former Liberty standout Kaidon Salter and highly touted freshman Julian Lewis. The offensive line, a major weakness since Deion Sanders has been at the school, has been overhauled with transfers, but chemistry remains a concern. Defensively, Colorado will rely on a mix of returning starters and new additions to improve a unit that struggled mightily in 2024. With a tough schedule and so many unknowns, expectations are muted, and its hard to see them not stepping back from last season’s surprising nine-win campaign. The focus will be on player development and establishing a new identity post-Hunter and Shedeur Sanders.

Odds to Win Big 12: +3100 (12/16)

Houston Cougars

Houston is a team on the rise, finishing last season with signs of growth under head coach Willie Fritz despite a 4-8 record. The addition of former Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman brings hope for a more dynamic passing attack … if he can recapture his five-star recruit form. The Cougars return 18 starters, giving them one of the league’s most experienced rosters, but they also underwent significant coaching staff changes, which could impact continuity. Houston’s schedule is among the more manageable in the Big 12, and ESPN’s FPI gives them a decent shot at reaching bowl eligibility. The defense, which struggled to generate turnovers last year, will need to be more opportunistic. If Weigman settles in quickly and the defense improves, Houston could surprise the league and climb up the middle tier of the conference standings.

Odds to Win Big 12: +2900 (10/16)

Iowa State Cyclones

Coming off the first double-digit win season in program history (11-3), Iowa State brings back a good roster but won’t surprise anyone this season. Quarterback Rocco Becht returns after leading the Cyclones to the Big 12 title game, and he’ll have help from incoming transfer receivers Chase Sowell and Xavier Townsend, who are expected to provide immediate impact. The run game, which was inconsistent at times last year, will be a point of emphasis as the Cyclones look to take pressure off Becht and control the clock. Defensively, Iowa State brings back 14 players that had significant time last year and should again be one of the league’s stingiest units, particularly against the pass. Head coach Matt Campbell has elevated expectations in Ames, and anything less than another title challenge would be a disappointment. The Cyclones’ depth and experience make them a legitimate threat to win the conference, especially if the offense takes another step forward.

Odds to Win Big 12: +1100 (7/16)

Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas is led by the return of sixth-year quarterback Jalon Daniels, whose dual-threat ability gives the Jayhawks an edge against Big 12 defenses. After narrowly missing a bowl game last season (and winning three straight against ranked opponents), Kansas retooled its offense with new co-coordinators Jim Zebrowski and Matt Lubick, aiming for a more balanced and explosive attack. The Jayhawks also added several key transfers to bolster both sides of the ball, particularly at receiver and in the secondary. The defense, which was inconsistent last year, should benefit from increased depth and experience. Kansas faces a manageable schedule, and with Daniels healthy, the Jayhawks are a popular dark horse pick to contend for a spot in the upper half of the Big 12.

Odds to Win Big 12: +1600 (8/16)

Kansas State Wildcats

Kansas State is widely viewed the preseason favorite to win the conference, thanks to the return of dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Coming off an up-and-down first full campaign, Johnson is expected to make a leap and will be supported by a strong running game led by Dylan Edwards. Head coach Chris Klieman has built a culture of consistency, guiding the Wildcats to four straight eight-win seasons, and the team’s physical style of play is a hallmark. The defense, while needing to replace a few key starters, remains deep and experienced, especially in the front seven. Kansas State’s schedule is challenging, but the Wildcats have the talent and coaching to navigate the gauntlet. If Johnson develops as expected and the defense holds up, Kansas State could find itself not only in the Big 12 title game but in the College Football Playoff conversation.

Odds to Win Big 12: +500 (1/16)

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State faces a daunting rebuilding task after a winless conference season in 2024, the first such occurrence in 30 years for the program. Head coach Mike Gundy, known for his program’s stability, now must integrate more than 60 new players into the roster, making for one of the most dramatic overhauls in college football. The Cowboys’ quarterback situation is unsettled, and the offensive line remains a major question mark after last year’s struggles. On defense, Oklahoma State will rely on a mix of transfers and young players, with little proven depth. The preseason outlook is grim and Gundy’s job could be on the line if that matches up with reality. But the primary goal for 2025 is likely to establish a new foundation and develop young talent, with hopes of returning to competitiveness in the years to come.

Odds to Win Big 12: +5000 (14/16)

TCU Horned Frogs

TCU enters 2025 with optimism, buoyed by the emergence of quarterback Josh Hoover, who solidified the starting role late last season and spurned Tennessee to stay at the school. The Horned Frogs led the Big 12 in total offense in 2024 and return several key playmakers, including a deep group of receivers and a veteran offensive line. Defensively, TCU showed steady improvement down the stretch and brings back a strong core, particularly at linebacker and in the secondary. The schedule is challenging, but TCU has the talent and depth to compete for a spot in the conference title game if the defense continues its upward trajectory and Hoover avoids turnovers.

Odds to Win Big 12: +800 (6/16)

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech is all-in for 2025, having invested heavily in roster upgrades through NIL (the Red Raiders have $55 million committed this year across all sports, heavily skewed toward football) and landing the No. 2 transfer class in the country. The Red Raiders’ bold approach has transformed them from a perennial middle-of-the-pack team into a legitimate contender. The offense is loaded with playmakers, and the defense features elite pass rushers David Bailey and Romello Height, as well as offensive line anchor Howard Sampson. Head coach Joey McGuire has generated significant buzz in Lubbock, and expectations are sky-high for a run at the Big 12 championship. The Red Raiders’ biggest challenge will be integrating so many new faces and maintaining chemistry throughout a grueling schedule. Anything less than a championship game appearance would be a disappointment for a program that hasn’t won 10 games since the Mike Leach era.

Odds to Win Big 12: +650 (3/16)

UCF Knights

UCF welcomes back head coach Scott Frost, who returns to Orlando with the task of rebuilding a roster that struggled in a 4-8 season. Quarterback Tayven Jackson is expected to lead the offense, which will look to recapture some of the explosiveness that defined Frost’s last tenure (2016-2017). The Knights brought in several transfers to address depth issues, particularly on the offensive line and at receiver. Defensively, UCF must improve against the run and generate more pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The schedule is tough, so the focus in 2025 will be on player development and laying the groundwork for future success. Frost’s supporters in Orlando are hoping for more magic from the coach, and a longer tenure.

Odds to Win Big 12: +6000 (16/16)

Utah Utes

Utah has renewed optimism after a disappointing first season in the Big 12 (2-7, 5-7), thanks to a revamped offense led by new coordinator Jason Beck and dynamic dual-threat quarterback Devon Dampier — who both came from the University of New Mexico. Head coach Kyle Whittingham’s teams are known for physicality and discipline, and the Utes’ defense is expected to be among the league’s best once again. The offensive line returns several starters, providing stability for Dampier as he adjusts to the new system. If the new offense can find its rhythm, Utah could be a dark horse playoff contender; if not, the Utes still should finish over .500.

Odds to Win Big 12: +600 (2/16)

West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia is another Big 12 school turning to a familiar face to revitalize the program. Rich Rodriguez returns to Morgantown tasked with reviving a program in transition (his last season at the school was in 2007). The Mountaineers brought in the second-largest transfer haul among Power Four schools, aiming to quickly upgrade talent across the roster. Returning running back Jahiem White is expected to be the focal point of the offense, while the defense will look to improve under new coordinator Zac Alley. The quarterback situation remains unsettled, and the offensive line is a work in progress. The key will be how Rodriguez re-adjusts to major college football and how quickly the new pieces come together.

Odds to Win Big 12: +4200 (13/16)