Phillies' Sanchez Cleared Today's K Line in 12 of 16 Starts + Bets to Watch and Batter vs. Pitcher Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at WNBA odds for the rest of the season

• Top 10 Bets: Sanchez cleared today’s strikeout line in 9 of last 11 starts

• Matchups: Gunnar Henderson is batting .875 vs. today’s starter

• Public Betting: Bettors are split on Yankees vs. Blue Jays

• Overtime: Star halftime performer Red Panda had a scary fall Tuesday

With the Commissioner’s Cup and All-Star starters being decided, it’s a good time to check in on WNBA odds for the rest of the season.

The defending-champion Liberty (+145) are favored by FanDuel to repeat despite their tepid 11-5 start, with the 14-2 Lynx (+240) their nearest competitor. The Fever are third (+500), despite Caitlin Clark’s ongoing injury issues and their 8-8 record. The 12-5 Mercury are +750.

Napheesa Collier (-300) is in the driver’s seat for MVP, with only Clark (+360) within shouting distance. Paige Bueckers (-1200) is the overwhelming favorite to win Rookie of the Year. And the surprising expansion Valkyries, who sit at 9-7, are -188 to make the playoffs.

Elsewhere in the league, Indiana’s Sophie Cunningham created quite the controversy with her comments about two of the WNBA’s upcoming expansion cities.

—Patrick Dorsey

Cubs Games Ended Up Under Today’s Runs Total in 7 of Imanaga’s 9 Starts this Season

By Jack Dougherty

Cristopher Sanchez over 4.5 strikeouts (-152 at FanDuel)
Sanchez is too good of a strikeout artist for his prop to be this low. The Phillies left-hander ranks in the 79th percentile in whiff rate and chase rate this season, plus he’s cleared this line in 12 of his 16 starts and nine of his last 11. This number is only 4.5 because the Padres have the third-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this year (19.5%), but this lineup has a 29.5% K rate against Sanchez in 44 plate appearances. 

Astros first 5 innings over 3.5 runs (-110 at DraftKings)
This is a dream matchup for Houston’s offense. The Astros have the fourth-highest OPS (.785) and wRC (124) against left-handed pitching since the start of June, and they should be able to jump all over Austin Gomber early. In 9.2 innings of work at Coors Field this season, Gomber has given up 16 hits, 10 earned runs and three homers. Astros hitters are also batting .400 with a .487 xSLG and a .363 xwOBA against Gomber in 78 plate appearances. 

Cubs vs. Guardians under 8 runs (-105 at FanDuel)
If you’ve been blindly betting the under when Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the Cubs this season, you’re having a pretty good year. Chicago games have gone under this line in seven of Imanaga’s nine starts this season with an average total of 7.1 runs per game. Imanaga should be able to handle a Cleveland lineup that ranks 28th in OPS (.589) and 27th in wRC+ (67) over the last month. On the other side, Tanner Bibee has held Cubs hitters to a .118 batting average and a .222 xwOBA in his career.

Mick Abel over 14.5 outs recorded (-175 at DraftKings)
The Phillies haven’t asked Abel to stretch out his starts much this season, but he’s still gone over this line in three of his five starts. This situation is a bit different, as Philadelphia is scheduled to play a doubleheader against the Padres on Wednesday. Manager Rob Thomson should rely on Abel to go at least 5.0 innings in Game 1 to save the bullpen as much as possible. The Padres also rank 28th in batting average (.159), OPS (.522) and wRC+ (49) against right-handed pitching over the last week.

Aaron Judge 3+ hits + runs + RBIs (+110 at DraftKings)
Judge has gone hitless in three of his last five games, but this is the perfect time to jump back on him in a familiar matchup. In 45 career plate appearances against Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios, Judge is batting .378 with five home runs and two doubles. Judge averages 2.98 hits + runs + RBIs per game this season, so this prop shouldn’t be priced at plus money in a matchup he’s dominated throughout his career.

Golf: John Deere Classic

Ben Griffin top-20 finish (-105 at DraftKings)
There’s a lot to like about Griffin this week. For one, the American is playing near-flawless golf with six straight top-15 finishes and two wins since April 27, and a majority of those finishes came in loaded fields with superstars at the top of the odds board. Those players aren’t teeing it up at TPC Deere Run, so Griffin is the betting favorite to win this week. In his first career start at the John Deere Classic last year, he finished T5 and was fourth in the field in true strokes gained from putting. 

Kevin Yu top-20 finish (+190 at DraftKings)
Yu is a hard player to trust because he can easily putt himself out of tournaments, but he’s actually gained strokes on the green in four of his last five starts, which has led to two top-five finishes in that span. TPC Deere Run seems to be a comfortable course for Yu on the greens, too, as he’s gained strokes from putting in each of his two career starts here and finished T6 and T20. Yu bombs it off the tee and is a consistently strong iron player, so another solid putting week could put him in contention at TPC Deere Run. 

Pierceson Coody top-30 finish (+120 at DraftKings)
Coody has bounced back and forth between the PGA Tour and the Korn Ferry Tour this season, but he’s quietly playing some great golf right now. The 25-year-old has finished T7, solo third, T2, T12, T16, T25 and T25 in his last seven starts across both tours. In his last PGA Tour start at the Charles Schwab Challenge, Coody gained strokes in all four categories while going up against Scottie Scheffler, Tommy Fleetwood and other stars. He also finished T30 at the John Deere Classic last season when he was in much worse form. 

Tournament matchup: Luke Clanton > Si Woo Kim (+115 at FanDuel)
It’s surprising to see Clanton priced as this big of an underdog in this matchup. The 21-year-old hasn’t played his best golf since turning pro in June, but he’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last five PGA Tour starts. This should be a good bounce-back week for Clanton after he finished runner-up to Davis Thompson at the John Deere Classic last year. As for Kim, he’s finished 84th, WD and T42 in his last three starts, and his putter has been ice cold in that span.

Tournament matchup: Jacob Bridgeman > Stephan Jeager (-165 at DraftKings)
TPC John Deere isn’t the hardest course on the PGA Tour schedule, but it can be difficult to rack up birdies here if you can’t hit the fairway due to the thick rough. That will be a problem for Jaeger, who ranks 160th on the PGA Tour this season in driving accuracy and is coming off his worst driving accuracy week of the season at the Rocket Classic. Bridgeman is much better at keeping his ball in the short grass, and his tremendous putting can dig him out of tough spots in a way Jaeger can’t.  

Gunnar Henderson is 7-8 (.875) in His Career vs. Nathan Eovaldi

• Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers): 7-8, 1 2B, 1 RBI

• Cody Bellinger (Yankees) vs. Jose Berrios (Blue Jays): 4-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Jose Altuve (Astros) vs. Austin Gomber (Rockies): 4-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI

• Jake Meyers (Astros) vs. Austin Gomber (Rockies): 4-6, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 1 K

• Christian Yelich (Brewers) vs. Clay Holmes (Mets): 3-5, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB

• Isaac Paredes (Astros) vs. Austin Gomber (Rockies): 4-7, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Jose Iglesias (Padres) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies): 4-8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 K

• Drew Waters (Royals) vs. Logan Gilbert (Mariners): 3-6, 1 3B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) vs. Logan Gilbert (Mariners): 5-11, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Aaron Judge (Yankees) vs. Jose Berrios (Blue Jays): 14-37, 2 2B, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 6 BB, 7 K

• Christian Walker (Astros) vs. Austin Gomber (Rockies): 7-17, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 3 K

• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) vs. Dylan Cease (Padres): 3-7, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

• CJ Abrams (Nationals) vs. Jack Flaherty (Tigers): 3-7, 2 3B, 1 BB

• Salvador Perez (Royals) vs. Logan Gilbert (Mariners): 5-14, 1 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 2 BB, 6 K

• Bryce Harper (Phillies) vs. Nick Pivetta (Padres): 4-13, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K

The Money Is With the Yankees, But Toronto (+1.5) Has the Most Bets in Tonight’s Matchup

MLB

• Athletics at Rays (-1.5, +100): 78% of the money and 68% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• (Game 1) Tigers (-1.5, -104) at Nationals: 73% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Detroit

• (Game 1) Padres at Phillies (+1.5, -176): 72% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• (Game 1) Brewers (+1.5, -200) at Mets (-1.5, +164): 51% of the money is with New York, but 69% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• (Game 2) Padres (+1.5, -178) at Phillies (-1.5, +146): 70% of the money is with Philadelphia, but 60% of the bets are with San Diego

• Twins at Marlins (+1.5, -160): 67% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Miami

• (Game 2) Tigers at Nationals (+1.5, -184): 51% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Washington

• Yankees (-1.5, +126) at Blue Jays (+1.5, -152): 59% of the money is with New York, but 58% of the bets are with Toronto

• Angels (+1.5, -170) at Braves: 69% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Guardians at Cubs (-1.5, +126): 81% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Chicago

• Orioles at Rangers (-1.5, +130): 63% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Texas

• Astros (-1.5, -178) at Rockies: 93% of the money and 87% of the bets are with Houston

• Giants (+1.5, -178) at Diamondbacks: 64% of the money and 61% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Royals (+1.5, -137) at Mariners (-1.5, +114): 64% of the money is with Kansas City, but 57% of the bets are with Seattle

• White Sox at Dodgers (-1.5, -156): 96% of the money and 94% of the bets are with Los Angeles

In the News 

• Legendary halftime performer Red Panda had a scary fall Tuesday and left the floor in a wheelchair.

• A record-breaking number of top-10 players are out at Wimbledon already.

• One rival exec called the Bucks’ recent moves “reckless.”

• Grading the Dolphins’ acquisition of Darren Waller, who came out of retirement to join Miami.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: Wimbledon on ESPN/ESPN+

• 7pm: USMNT vs. Guatemala in the CONCACAF Gold Cup on FS1

• 7:07pm: Yankees vs. Blue Jays on Prime Video

• 7:30pm: USWNT vs. Canada on TNT/truTV/Max/Peacock

• 8pm: Guardians vs. Cubs on ESPN

• 10pm: Mexico vs. Honduras in the CONCACAF Gold Cup on FS1

Photo of the Day