A Look at MLB Division Favorites, Luzardo Strikeouts, Astros vs. Dodgers and More

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Checking in on MLB division, league favorites

• Top 10 Bets: Luzardo has 28 strikeouts in last 22.2 innings (and 2.78 ERA)

• Matchups: The Cubs have done well vs. today’s starter

• Game of the Day: The heated Astros vs. Dodgers series kicks off today

• Player to Watch: Chestnut goes for 17th hot dog eating contest win

• Overtime: Becky Hammon went OFF after the Aces’ latest embarrassing loss

The Blue Jays are in first! After a four-game sweep of the Yankees, Toronto (49-38) sits one game ahead of New York and Tampa Bay (both 48-39).

However, the Yankees are still the favorites for their division. Here’s how all the odds presently stack up (via FanDuel):

• AL East: Yankees -150, Blue Jays +240, Rays +340, Red Sox +3100, Orioles +20000

• AL Central: Tigers -4500, Guardians +3500, Twins +3700, Royals +10000, White Sox off the board

• AL West: Astros -650, Mariners +650, Rangers +1700, Angels +8500, Athletics +30000

• NL East: Phillies -240, Mets +185, Braves +3200, Nationals +30000, Marlins +30000

• NL Central: Cubs -340, Brewers +470, Cardinals +900, Reds +2100, Pirates +30000

• NL West: Dodgers -6000, Giants +4100, Padres +4200, Diamondbacks +15000, Rockies off the board

The Tigers (+280), Yankees (+300) and Astros (+380) lead the way in the American League winner odds, while the Dodgers (+115) are ahead of the Phillies (+450), Cubs (+650) and Mets (+700) in the NL. The Dodgers are +210 to win the World Series; no other team is better than +750.

Here’s a running list of Home Run Derby participants — who is the player to beat?

—Patrick Dorsey

Strider Forced 38 Strikeouts Across Last 30 Innings and Produced 2.70 ERA

By Craig Williams

Mets moneyline (-115 at ESPNBET)
The Yankees are back to reeling again, losing three in a row and ceding first place in the AL East to the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mets aren’t doing much better, losing seven of their past 10. But they have the luxury of facing off against Marcus Stroman and his 8.16 ERA — albeit in only 14.1 innings. The Mets have struggled offensively as much as they have in the pitching department during their skid, but they do have favorable batting splits at Citi Field, something that should help them in a winnable spot.

Mets over 4.5 runs (-105 at ESPNBET)
Marcus Stroman’s struggles can’t simply be summed up in his 8.16 ERA — though it gets you off to a good start. He’s given up 15 hits, 13 earned runs, three homers, and nine walks over 14.1 innings (with only eight strikeouts). And this is on the heels of falling down the Yankees pecking order in 2024. And finally, he’s also dealt with injuries which present their own set of complications. Even in the midst of the Mets’ struggles, this is a spot in which they should consistently put pressure on the cross-town Yankees.

Phillies moneyline (-156 at FanDuel)
We still like the Phillies at home, where they’re 28-15 compared to the Reds’ 21-23 mark on the road. The Phillies do not have stark platoon splits, but they do hit much better at Citizens Bank Park. They have a date with left-hander Andrew Abbott, who enters with a 1.01 ERA over his past four starts, but a less impressive 3.62 FIP over that span. We’re banking on the Phillies doing enough offensively and pitching-wise to finish with a W.

Reds under 3.5 runs (-108 at FanDuel)
Southpaw Jesus Luzardo has been sharp over his past four starts, producing a 2.78 ERA/2.25 FIP over that span (22.2 innings) with 28 punchouts. He allowed two or fewer runs in three of those turns. The Reds, meanwhile, enter with a .219/.296/.354 slash line against left-handed pitching, leading us to bank on a quiet offensive showing from the guests.

Lucas Giolito over 17.5 outs recorded (-140 at DraftKings)
Giolito has been stellar of late, limiting opponents to two earned runs across his previous 25 frames. He’s gone at least six innings in each of his past four starts, and we’re looking for another deep outing today against Washington. The Nats have a .299 wOBA since June 1 plus they’re bottom 10 in both walk rate and strikeout rate. On paper, that suggests they won’t test Giolito with too many deep counts, nor will they knock him out of the game with their offensive production.

Parlay: Red Sox moneyline + game under 5.5 runs first five innings (+178 at DraftKings)
We like Giolito to pitch well against a a modest-hitting Nationals team, and we’re also looking at Michael Soroka’s recent form for the Nats. Soroka has an 0.82 WHIP and 3.49 ERA over his past five starts (28.1 innings). The Red Sox are favored in this spot, but they’re 18-25 on the road compared to 25-20 at home, so even if they win, we’re not expecting them to do so in dominant, high-scoring fashion — especially with Soroka dealing as well as he has in recent starts. 

Braves moneyline (-174 at FanDuel)
We like Spencer Strider against former teammate Charlie Morton in Atlanta. He’s been dominant across his past 30 innings, producing a 2.70 ERA and even tidier 1.76 FIP to go with 38 strikeouts and zero homers allowed. The Orioles are putrid against power pitchers, entering play with a .186/.254/.299 against them in addition to a .654 OPS on the road. The Braves’ overall struggles mask the success they’ve enjoyed at home, and the Orioles enter play with an 18-27 road mark.

Rays moneyline (+100 at bet365)
It’s not just the Blue Jays racing up the AL East standings. The Rays went 17-10 in June and have the second-best wOBA with the most runs scored since June 1. The offense has made up for a spotty bullpen over this span — the starters own the league’s seventh-best ERA — and allowed the Rays to chew up ground on the once-leading Yankees. They’re 20-14 on the road and will take aim at Chris Paddack, who has given up 19 earned runs over his past 18.1 innings.

Marlins +1.5 (-176 at DraftKings)
The Marlins are 8-2 over their past 10 with Sandy Alcantara on the hill. Alcantara’s full-season numbers don’t look pretty, but he’s giving the Marlins a chance to win each time out — including his last start in which he still logged six innings in a Marlins win despite surrendering seven earned runs. They have the league’s seventh-best wOBA over their past 10 games, and they’ll face off against Quinn Priester, who enters today’s start with unfavorable road splits.

Sandy Alcantara over 17.5 outs recorded (-155 at DraftKings)
We’re doubling down on Alcantara, who seems to have found something over his past five starts. He’s tossed six innings in four of them and produced a quality start in three. Diving into the pitch-level data shows us that Alcantara is generating positive run value on his sinker since June 1. Meanwhile, the Brewers have generated the second-worst run value against sinkers over that same span of time. If Alcantara is able to lean on his bread-and-butter, he’ll be able to generate a lot of easy outs. 

Cubs Newcomers and Veterans Have Seen Success vs. Today’s Cardinals Pitcher

• Mookie Betts (Dodgers) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): 7-15, 2 2B, 1 RBI, 6 BB, 1 K

• Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals): 3-4, 1 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Austin Hays (Reds): vs. Jesus Luzardo (Phillies): 3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 K

• Lars Nootbar (Cardinals) vs. Colin Rea (Cubs): 3-5, 1 RBI, 2 BB

• Alec Bohm (Phillies) vs. Andrew Abbott (Reds): 2-3, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 1 BB

• Kyle Tucker (Cubs) vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals): 2-3, 1 2B, 1 RBI

• Junior Caminero (Rays) vs. Chris Paddack (Twins): 2-3, 1 2B

• Jorge Polanco (Mariners) vs. Bailey Falter (Pirates): 2-3, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 K

• Lane Thomas (Guardians) vs. Reese Olson (Tigers): 3-7, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Tyler Fitzgerald (Giants) vs. JP Sears (Athletics): 3-7, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

• Amed Rosario (Nationals) vs. Lucas Giolito (Red Sox): 7-17, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 2 K

• Josh Rojas (White Sox) vs. Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): 8-20, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Nico Hoerner (Cubs) vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals): 13-33, 3 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K

• Ian Happ (Cubs) vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals): 13-40, 5 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 11 K

• Juan Soto (Mets) vs. Marcus Stroman (Yankees): 3-10, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 2 K

Houston vs. LA Series Kicks Off Tonight at Dodger Stadium

It’s not a traditional rivalry, and the rosters have largely turned over, but there’s still a lot of animosity for the Astros among Dodgers fans for the 2017 World Series cheating scandal. Friday’s contest touches off a three-game series between first-place teams that will surely have some boos.

Astros vs. Dodgers
9:10pm ET

• Starting Pitchers

  • HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. (1-3), 6.61 ERA, 32.2 IP, 24 ER, 40 K, 20 BB, 1.62 WHIP

  • LAD: Ben Casparius (6-2), 3.97 ERA, 56.2 IP, 25 ER, 54 K, 12 BB, 1.13 WHIP

• Spread: Dodgers (-1.5, +112), Astros (+1.5, -134)

  • 79% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Moneyline: Dodgers -174, Astros +146

• Total (9): Over -120, Under -102

Head to Head

• Dodgers batters have 13 hits in 42 at-bats vs. Lance McCullers Jr. He has given up no home runs, striking out 11 (including Shohei Ohtani 7 times) and walking 14 (including Ohtani and Mookie Betts 6 times each). The Dodgers have a .482 OBP, .381 SLG and .863 OPS against McCullers Jr.

• No Astros player has faced Ben Casparius.

Chestnut is a Huge Favorite to Win His 17th Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Joey Chestnut missed last year’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest due a sponsorship dispute after Major League Eating banned him for his endorsement deal with Impossible Foods (the company produces plant-based substitutes for meat products). Patrick Bertoletti won in Chestnut’s absence, but ate just 58 hot dogs in 10 minutes.

The field — check out the contenders — is expected to be well behind Chestnut in his return. Chestnut’s record is 76 hot dogs, which he set in 2021, and he ate 63 in 2022 and 62 in 2023.

Bets to Watch

• Joey Chestnut — Total Hot Dogs Eaten (71.5): Over -102, Under -126

• Outright Winner: Chestnut -1800, Anyone Else +720

• Will a New Record be Set (over 76): Yes +280, No -430

In the News 

• Becky Hammon called the Aces’ performance “trash” after an embarrassing loss to the Fever.

• Just days after fighting Jake Paul, boxer Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. was arrested by ICE and faces deportation.

• The Kevin Durant trade will reportedly be expanded to include 7 teams.

• Is Bradley Beal finally going to leave Phoenix?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: Wimbledon on ESPN/ESPN+

• 12pm: Denmark vs. Sweden in the Women’s Euro on FS1

• 2:20pm: Cardinals vs. Cubs on Apple TV+

• 3pm: Fluminense vs. Al-Hilal in the Club World Cup quarterfinals on TNT/truTV/DAZN

• 3pm: Germany vs. Poland in the Women’s Euro on FOX

• 7:07pm: Angels vs. Blue Jays on Apple TV+

Photo of the Day