10 Bets to Watch Today + Wimbledon Semifinal Preview and a Look at a NBA Summer League Debut

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Cooper Flagg had a rough Summer League ope

• Top 10 Bets: Yankees are averaging 6.2 runs per home game over last 9

• Matchups: Jannik Sinner is 5-4 head-to-head vs. Novak Djokovic

• Player to Watch: Ace Bailey is set for his Las Vegas Summer League debut

• Overtime: Najee Harris was injured in a fireworks accident

Cooper Flagg’s Summer League debut did not go exactly as planned, with the No. 1 overall pick shooting 5 for 21 from the field, including 0 for 5 from 3, scoring just 10 points. He did stuff the stat sheet a bit, though, adding 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals and a block.

Before we call him a bust, though, let’s remember that not every top pick tore it up in their first Summer League outing. Victor Wembanyama went just 2 for 13 the first time he played in a Spurs uniform, finishing with 9 points and similarly filling out the box score (8 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 blocks). Cade Cunningham went 5 for 17 for 12 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals and 2 blocks, committing 5 turnovers.

Flagg is still -180 at FanDuel to win Rookie of the Year. He’s -115 to record a triple-double in any 2025-26 regular-season game, and +175 to record 15+ double-doubles in the regular season.

—Patrick Dorsey

Suarez Hasn’t Allowed Over 3 Runs in 11 Straight Starts, Opponents Are Hitting .202 Since June 1

By Craig Wiliams

Royals moneyline (+116 at FanDuel)
The Mets are coming off of a double-header — two losses — and traveled to Kansas City the same night. They already struggle on the road (20-27), and now they’ll be facing a Royals team that has won four in a row and seven of 10. We’re particularly concerned with the Mets ability to score runs — they’re averaging 2.8 runs per game over their past 12 road games (2-10).

Royals vs. Mets under 2.5 runs first 3 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
Kodai Senga is making his return tonight from a hamstring injury. He only made one rehab start, in which he tossed 68 pitches. He threw a bullpen session on Wednesday, so we’re less concerned about his effectiveness as we are his stamina. And when it comes to effectiveness, Senga was dominant with a 1.47 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. We’re banking on him doing his part over the first three innings, and for the Mets hitters to be a bit sluggish out of the gate.

Cubs +1.5 (-121 at DraftKings)
The Cubs take care of business to a respectable degree on the road based on their 25-22 mark away from Wrigley Field and their favorable offensive road splits, including a .791 OPS. They have also been relatively balanced against both lefties and righties. Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodon is in the midst of a rough patch, producing a 4.62 ERA and 4.91 FIP since June 1, a span of seven starts that resulted in a 2-5 record for the Yankees. 

Yankees over 4.5 runs (-146 at FanDuel)
The Cubs are going with an opener, meaning they’ll lean on a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA since June 1. Still, as YES broadcaster Paul O’Neil frequently points out, deploying an opener strategy requires a number of guys to be sharp, and that always presents the risk that one or two guys simply don’t have it. More tangibly, the Yankees are 7-2 over their past nine home games while averaging 6.2 runs per contest.

Red Sox +1.5 (-172 at FanDuel)
The Rays have the edge on paper in the pitching matchup between Drew Rasmussen and Hunter Dobbins, but we like the form the Red Sox are in right now. They’ve won seven straight and nine of 10. They’re also tough at home with a 29-20 record at Fenway Park. The Rays, meanwhile, are 3-7 over their past 10. Even if the Red Sox can’t extend their streak, we expect them to keep the final tally close.

Rays vs. Red Sox under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-105 at DraftKings)
We touched on Drew Rasmussen, and we like him to pitch well in a tough spot — current Red Sox hitters have a .579 OPS against him. Even if the Red Sox chip their way to 5-6 runs in the game, we expect Rasmussen to keep them contained enough throughout the early portion of tonight’s contest. The Red Sox’s Hunter Dobbins hasn’t been as good as Rasmussen in 2025, but we think he can take enough advantage of the Rays’ modest bats — .311 wOBA over their past 10 games — to help land the under.

Braves under 4.5 runs (-162 at Caesars)
Our eyes widen when we see a left-hander facing off against the Braves. Their struggles against lefties (.658 OPS) have been on display in recent matchups. Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore appears to be back on track after a rough three-start stretch. He’s limiting opponents to a .209 batting average and .264 wOBA over his past four starts. The Braves’ .685 road OPS works against them on paper in this spot as well.

Cardinals +1.5 (-180 at ESPNBET)
We discussed the theoretical challenge the Braves will have against Cardinals left-hander Matthew Liberatore, and if the Braves’ trends against left-handers continue, it’s reasonable to expect a low-scoring contest. Also consider that the Braves will be traveling from Sacramento upon the conclusion of their series finale against the Athletics. The Cardinals score more per game at home and enter play with favorable home offensive splits, suggesting they can keep the Braves close to cover.

Padres under 3.5 runs (-130 at ESPNBET)
Trends suggest the Padres are in for a tough matchup against left-hander Ranger Suarez. For starters, Suarez has been stellar since getting roughed up in his first start of the season. He’s made 11 straight starts without allowing an opponent to score more than three runs. He also enters tonight’s turn with a 1.06 ERA and 0.85 ERA WHIP on the road. The Padres have not been particularly productive against left-handers with a .662 OPS and .291 wOBA against them.

Ranger Suarez over 17.5 outs recorded (-155 at DraftKings)
We’re doubling down on Ranger Suarez here and betting on him to deliver another stellar start in a matchup that favors him on paper. He’s allowed seven earned runs total since June 1 (46.2 innings) and opponents hit .202 against him over that span. He’s completed at least seven innings in five of his past seven as well. We’re also looking for Suarez to continue his own trend of pitching well at Petco Park, where he owns a 1.76 ERA over 15.1 frames. 

Jannik Sinner Has a 5-4 Head-To-Head Lead Over Novak Djokovic

Batters to Watch

• Isiah Kiner-Falefa (Pirates) vs. Joe Ryan (Twins): 3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1 K

• Kyle Manzardo (Guardians) vs. Jonathan Cannon (White Sox): 3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI

• Jose Iglesias (Padres) vs. Ranger Suarez (Phillies): 6-10, 2 2B, 3 K

• Aaron Judge (Yankees) vs. Chris Flexen (Cubs): 3-6, 1 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Pete Alonso (Mets): vs. Michael Wacha (Royals): 3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI

• Steven Kwan (Guardians) vs. Jonathan Cannon (White Sox): 3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K

• TJ Friedl (Reds) vs. German Marquez (Rockies): 2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI

• Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks) vs. Tyler Anderson (Angels): 13-30, 6 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

• Mookie Betts (Dodgers) vs. Logan Webb (Giants): 15-38, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K

Pitchers to Watch

• Matthew Liberatore (Cardinals) has excelled against Atlanta hitters, allowing just 3 hits (one extra-base) in 28 at-bats (.107 average) with 9 strikeouts.

• Dustin May (Dodgers) has been effective vs. current Giants hitters, allowing 7 hits in 36 at-bats (.194) with just one extra-base hit. His OPS against is .506.

• Carlos Rodon (Yankees) has struck out current Cubs 28 times in 73 at-bats (with a .233 average against).

• Luis Castillo (Mariners) has allowed a .235 average and a .585 OPS with 27 strikeouts in 102 at-bats vs. current Tigers hitters.

Wimbledon

• No. 1 Jannik Sinner has a 5-4 lifetime record vs. No. 6 Novak Djokovic, with four straight victories over the 24-time Grand Slam winner. Djokovic has won both meetings at Wimbledon, including in the 2023 semifinals.

Ace Bailey Set For Vegas Summer League Debut After Rocky Draft Process

Name: Ace Bailey
Team: Utah Jazz
Position: Forward
Today’s Matchup: vs. Charlotte Hornets
2025 Stats (Salt Lake City Summer League): 13.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 37.0 FG%

Salt Lake City Summer League Games

• vs. Grizzlies: 18 points on 7-14 shooting, 7 rebounds, 3 assists

• vs. 76ers: 8 points on 3-13 shooting, 7 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 steal, 1 block

Matchup

• Bailey, the No. 5 overall pick this year after a rocky draft process, is going up against Kon Knueppel, who was selected one spot ahead of him. The Hornets did not participate in either of the pre-Las Vegas Summer Leagues.

Bets to Watch

• The Jazz are -6.5 (-110) in the game, with a -290 moneyline (Hornets are +225). The total is 180.5 (Over -112, Under -112).

In the News 

• Chargers RB Najee Harris was injured in a fireworks accident.

• Did Steph Curry accidentally leak the Warriors’ next free-agent signing?

• An LPGA player was forced to withdraw after collapsing on the tee box at this week’s major.

• Could the men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments finally be expanding?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 8am: Wimbledon on ESPN/ESPN+

• 3pm: Italy vs. Spain in the Women’s Euro on FOX

• 3pm: Portugal vs. Belgium in the Women’s Euro on FS1

• 4:30pm: Hawks vs. Heat in Las Vegas Summer League on ESPN2/ESPN+

• 7pm: Jazz vs. Hornets in Las Vegas Summer League on ESPN/ESPN+

• 9pm: Wizards vs. Suns in Las Vegas Summer League on ESPN/ESPN+

• 11pm: Trail Blazers vs. Warriors in Las Vegas Summer League on ESPN2/ESPN+

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