10 Bets to Watch (Including 4 NFL Futures) + HR Derby Odds and Big 12 Preview

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Checking in on MLB futures

• Top 10 Bets: The Lynx allow just 75.2 points per game

• Game of the Day: A look at tonight’s Home Run Derby

• College Football: Previewing the unpredictable Big 12

• Overtime: NFL 2nd round draft picks still aren’t signing with their teams

The halfway point of the MLB season is here, with the Home Run Derby tonight and All Star Game tomorrow in Atlanta. This is one of the quietest sports weeks of the year (yet the WNBA inexplicably is only airing its two games tonight on local TV), so it’s a good opportunity to look ahead.

You’ll see our first college football preview later in the newsletter — the Big 12 should be ultra-competitive again this year — but we’re starting you off with a look at where MLB stands betting-wise right now (via FanDuel):

• AL East Winner: Yankees (-120), Blue Jays (+165), Red Sox (+650)

• AL West Winner: Astros (-600), Mariners (+490)

• AL Central Winner: Currently off the board with Tigers up 11.5 games

• NL East Winner: Phillies (-145), Mets (+100)

• NL Central Winner: Cubs (-320), Brewers (+260)

• NL West Winner: Dodgers (-1400), Padres (+1500)

• AL Winner: Tigers (+260), Yankees (+340), Astros (+380), Blue Jays (+850), Mariners (+1000), Red Sox (+1100)

• NL Winner: Dodgers (+120), Phillies (+500), Mets and Cubs (+600), Brewers (+1300), Padres (+1500)

• World Series Champion: Dodgers (+220), Tigers (+700), Yankees (+800), Phillies (+850), Astros (+1000), Cubs (+1200)

  —Abe Rakov

With a First-Year Starting QB and a Difficult Division, 10 Wins Could be Tough for the Vikings

By Chris Farley

Sky +10.5 (-105 at BetMGM and BetOnline)
The Sky haven't had much to celebrate this season, but they were at their best on Saturday. Winners of four out of their past seven games, they dominated the Lynx at home, ahead at the end of every quarter and holding the line to a victory over one of the W's best programs. Angel Reese was magnificent (19 points, 11 rebounds) and as a team they shot 46% from the field. Their defense had one of its best performances of the season, too, holding the Lynx to under 40% from the field and just 81 points. Oddsmakers might think it's a good spot for Minnesota to respond, but that kind of performance only builds momentum, momentum that Chicago desperately needs and wants to hold onto before the break. It doesn't hurt that they're at home, again.

Lynx vs. Sky under 161.5 points (-110 consensus)
Chicago's defense was its stalwart unit last season, anchored by physical play in the paint and a terrific new rebounder in Angel Reese. This year hasn't resulted in the same brand, but they've looked a lot like that 2024 defense over their past five games, ranking 2nd in opponent field goal percentage, 3rd in opponent three-point percentage, and permitting just 79.6 points per game. Their tempo has increased a tiny bit (95.32 over their past five) but not enough to suggest a high output. The Lynx won't be happy after their shocking loss on Saturday, and despite their exceptional offense (1st overall this season), their defense remains their most consistent group (also 1st this season), allowing just 75.2 points per game. This is a great regression spot for an under.

Angel Reese under 14.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
Statistically we have no reason to doubt Reese in Monday's marquee matchup. The former LSU Tiger is averaging 13.6 points per game but she's eclipsed 14.5 points in her past seven starts. She's been a huge part of Chicago's turnaround, and Reese shot over 50% in the same span. Our issue with expecting yet another over is her opponent. Again, we think the spread is far too large, but Chicago's climb is more than the second-year star, with other starters routinely putting up 20+ a game. Reese has looked great in two former meetings with Minnesota, but we believe in Minnesota's ability to gameplan better than any WNBA defense, and Napheesa Collier, who can stymie Reese, won't shy away from another physical matchup.

Mercury +2.5 (-110 at Bovada)
As a brand new team, this is only the third time Golden State has been a favorite this season. The reason is obvious: The Mercury will be without three of their stars on Monday, most notably Satou Sabally, who's been one of the best players in the WNBA the first half of the season (19.1 points, 7.7 rebounds per game). But Phoenix has performed in this role before, winning their last two games in impressive fashion against Dallas and Minnesota without the same star players. Golden State has been showing it's newbie flaws, outside of a strange beatdown on the Fever, but they're a bad matchup for Phoenix, an outfit that loves to run the floor and outscore opponents. We see more value in the short road dog.

Valkyries vs. Mercury over 158.5 points (-105 at Bovada)
The Valkyries have lost three of their past four games, but their ratings have remained impressive. It makes it even more impressive that they've had a really tough schedule lately. Against the Storm, Lynx, Dream, Fever, and Aces, the Valkyries rank 3rd offensively and 6th defensively, putting up a healthy 83.6 points per game and allowing only 39.8% field goal rate. That sounds like a very formidable statistic, and it is, but this is also a weird point of the season. Right before the All-Star break, we've seen potent offenses like Minnesota and Indiana play without the same energy, but we have not seen that drop in form from Phoenix, who continues to display the WNBA's best offense (1st over the past five games). We like their output and tempo (also 1st over the past five) to boost this total over.

Alyssa Thomas over 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-106 at FanDuel)
Arguably one of the most underrated players in the WNBA, Alyssa Thomas has always been an enigmatic hybrid, able to affect a basketball game in any way she pleases. Whether it's stout defense or an offensive display, the 33-year-old veteran has seen no shortage of playing time, especially with the Mercury's three other stars sidelined. In the past three games, Thomas has been extremely active, averaging 17.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 10 assists per game. Those are insane numbers but not unusual for Thomas, who was a key part of Connecticut's success for so many seasons before making the switch to Phoenix this summer. Golden State's defense is very good, but the Mercury will need Thomas to lead and she's very comfortable in that role.

NFL Futures

Dallas Cowboys to win NFC East (+550 at FanDuel)
Unbelievably, the NFC East hasn’t seen repeat champions since 2004. Over the past four seasons it's been a back and forth flip-flop with Dallas and Philadelphia, although few are giving Dallas a chance this year. If anything, the Commanders are the hottest new commodity, fresh off a shockingly entertaining campaign that made it all the way to the NFC Conference Championship. But Dak is back, and in his last stint as a full-season starter (2023) he led the NFL in passing touchdowns. We also love the George Pickens pickup, creating a wicked tandem at wide-receiver, and that Matt Eberflus' next gig is Dallas' defensive coordinator, a spot where he should thrive and exact revenge with a talented roster. Lastly, the Eagles lost a ton after their Super Bowl win, particularly on defense, and play-calling is in Nick Sirianni’s hands again after Kellen Moore's exit. Historically, that hasn't gone well. In short it's tough to repeat in the East, and Dallas is better than you think.

New Orleans Saints under 5.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings)
NFL handicappers and betting prognosticators use many methods to compute power ratings, but no one can deny the influence of a quarterback. The dude behind center is hands-down the most important figure on any roster. He leads, calls the plays, changes assignments before the snap, and needs to hit a target with pinpoint accuracy while 280 pound monsters attempt to murder him. It's not an easy gig, and the Saints are relying on Tyler Shough, an unproven, seven-year college thrower who never stood out until his mid-20s, to step in and get it done. Making matters even more challenging, the Saints have an unproven new coach in Kellen Moore, with a defense that's aging and underperformed last season. We just don't see where their success is coming from, especially in an NFC South that's only getting better.

San Francisco 49ers over 10.5 wins (-102 at BetMGM)
The 49ers had a very poor showing in 2024, but almost every NFL bettor saw it coming. Bets piled in on San Francisco's under (11.5) before last season, and it came to be with ease. Ongoing injuries to star players, a hellacious schedule and pure back luck following another Super Bowl loss, 2024 was a year Kyle Shanahan and his boys would prefer to forget. But things look brighter this season. Christian McCaffrey is back and reportedly turning heads at camp, they gave their enigmatic tight end a historic extension, and Brock Purdy is back at the helm and motivated to bring the Bay Area back to prominence. It doesn't hurt that they have the consensus easiest schedule in the NFL, a welcome change that provides a direct path to the playoffs.

Minnesota Vikings under 9.5 wins (-120 at DraftKings)
This one hurts our hearts, but that's betting! The Vikings' Kevin O'Connell has been one of the league's elite head coaches, a transformational leader that's brought out the best in his program and catapulted the franchise to the playoffs twice in three seasons. Brian Flores' tenacious defense is another aspect we love, and the Vikings playmakers are elite and fun to watch. The bad news is that the NFC North isn't getting any easier. Add Chicago to the mix, too, who brought in more talent and the NFL's hottest young coach, Ben Johnson. Then you have Detroit and Green Bay, who need no introduction, and suddenly a bet on Minnesota getting to 10 wins, with J.J. McCarthy under center, feels very risky. O'Connell knows football better than we do, and he trusts McCarthy. We just can't get over the fact that very, very few quarterbacks thrive in their first season, even with complimentary surrounding parts. Ten wins is asking a lot in a crowded NFC, even for an exceptional administration. 

Raleigh Brings His MLB-Leading 38 Home Runs to the Derby in Atlanta

The Home Run Derby takes place tonight from Atlanta’s Truist Park beginning at 8pm ET on ESPN. Defending champion Teoscar Hernández isn’t defending his title, and three of the top-10 home run hitters this season are participating.

Here’s a rundown of tonight’s field, in order of most home runs to least:

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 38 home runs, .259 average, 5 HR in July

  • To win: +300; To make finals: +110; To make semifinals: -265

• James Wood (Nationals): 24 home runs, .278 average, 2 HR in July

  • To win: +400; To make finals: +205; To make semifinals: -168

• Junior Caminero (Rays): 23 home runs, .252 average, 2 HR in July

  • To win: +950; To make finals: +470; To make semifinals: +142

• Byron Buxton (Twins): 21 home runs, .289 average, 2 HR in July

  • To win: +850; To make finals: +340; To make semifinals: +108

• Brent Rooker (A’s): 20 home runs, .279 average, 3 HR in July

  • To win: +1000; To make finals: +470; To make semifinals: +138

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees): 17 home runs, .250 average, 3 HR in July

  • To win: +1400; To make finals: +650; To make semifinals: +172

• Matt Olson (Braves): 17 home runs, .262 average, 2 HR in July

  • To win: +900; To make finals: +340; To make semifinals: +106

• Oneil Cruz (Pirates): 16 home runs, .212 average, 1 HR in July

  • To win: +330; To make finals: +152; To make semifinals: -194

The total combined home runs line is set at 240.5 (Over/Under -113), and Cruz is favored to hit the longest home run (+185; Wood is second at +300 and Buxton is third at +420).

Big 12 Football Preview: Parity, New Faces and a Wide-Open Title Race

By Abe Rakov

The Big 12 football season arrives with more intrigue and uncertainty than usual — even for the generally unpredictable conference. The league’s expansion to 16 teams created a dynamic, coast-to-coast conference where new rivalries are quickly forming and traditional hierarchies are being challenged. Last year’s surprise champion, Arizona State, proved that in the modern Big 12 nearly any team can win any week. This year, the conference landscape is even more volatile, with no clear favorite and as many as eight teams with legitimate hopes of reaching the title game in Arlington.

Like in most conferences in this new era of college football, the offseason was marked by a flurry of transfer activity, coaching changes, and high-profile player departures — most notably at quarterback for several programs. Coaching changes could also have an outsized impact: The return of Rich Rodriguez to West Virginia and Scott Frost to UCF brings could revitalize the schools, though just about every facet of being a head coach is different from when they left.

Texas Tech, Arizona State, and Kansas State are the most stable programs coming into the season, while Oklahoma State, Arizona and UCF are likely in rebuilding mode. Overall, the gap between the top and bottom of the Big 12 continues to shrink.

Click here to read our full Big 12 team-by-team preview at Sportmoney.com.

In the News 

• There are still 30 unsigned 2nd round NFL Draft picks, and Chargers rookie Tre Harris became the first official holdout of the group.

• The Nationals made a surprise first pick in the MLB Draft, selecting the high school son of a former major leaguer.

• The sign-stealing former University of Michigan assistant claimed he knew nearly every signal opposing teams used in seven games.

• The Red Sox extended their longest winning streak since 2018.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 4:30pm: Hawks vs. Rockets (Summer League) on NBA TV

• 8pm: MLB’s Home Run Derby on ESPN

• 10:30pm: Clippers vs. Lakers (Summer League) on NBA TV

Photo of the Day