Soto Batting .311 Since June 1, Phillies Have +29 Run Differential at Home, Glasnow Owns the Brewers

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Who do sportsbooks see going No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft?

• Top 10 Bets: Phillies are 30-16 at home with a +29 run differential

• Game of the Day: Red Sox put their 10-game winning streak on the line at Wrigley

• Matchups: Tyler Glasnow has been lights-out vs. the Brewers

• Overtime: Is Damian Lillard’s return to Portland a good move?

ESPN on Thursday profiled the 14 players who could go No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft. But what do the betting odds say?

At DraftKings, Texas QB Arch Manning (+225) is the favorite, despite not being the most likely top pick in ESPN’s roundup. Penn State signal caller Drew Allar is close behind (+275).

The next four also are quarterbacks: LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier (+425), South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers (+800), Clemson’s Cade Klubnik (+1200) and Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt (+2500).

Clemson edge T.J. Parker and Ohio State safety Caleb Downs are the top non-QBs, both also coming in at +2500. Controversial UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is +4000.

—Patrick Dorsey

After Slow Start with the Mets, Soto is Batting .311 Since June 1st

By Craig Williams

Lucas Giolito over 17.5 outs recorded (-120 at DraftKings)
Lucas Giolito has been on a roll, rattling off six straight starts with at least 18 outs recorded, and averaging 19.3 outs recorded across that span. He also produced a 0.70 ERA and still-tidy 2.62 FIP over those 38.2 innings while only surrendering two home runs. The Cubs enter the second half with slightly unfavorable offensive splits at home, but take a minute to check the weather before finalizing a wager — Wrigley Field can play incredibly hitter friendly if the wind is blowing out. And vice-versa.

Red Sox vs. Cubs under 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-180 at DraftKings)
We mentioned Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito’s hot streak, but Colin Rea has a nice run going as well, albeit a little shorter — he’s produced a 1.93 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP over his past 18.2 innings. We’re not necessarily bullish on Rea, but we’re considering what four days off will do for the Red Sox’s offensive rhythm. It won’t be a surprise to see some teams take a turn or two through the order before firing on all cylinders to open the break.

Juan Soto to record a hit (-160 at FanDuel)
Soto has looked like himself for several weeks now, batting .311 since June 1. Bettors and observers can look at the All-Star Break from a couple of angles, specifically under the context of Soto. We’re betting that Soto will avoid struggling from a rust perspective. We are, however, keeping our finger on the pulse of the “snub” narrative — anything that adds a chip to Soto’s shoulder is bad news for opponents. But we’re mostly just confident in Soto remaining locked in to open the second half.

Reds +0.5 first 5 innings (-113 at FanDuel)
There are two leading factors backing this position. For starters, the Mets struggle against left-handers, entering tonight’s contest with a modest .672 OPS and .297 wOBA against them. Secondly, Sean Manaea is making his 2025 debut tonight, and it’s only reasonable to expect him to need a start or two to get into Major League rhythm.

Jesus Luzardo over 6.5 strikeouts (-125 at ESPNBET)
Based on Luzardo’s recent form and the Angels' lack of success against left-handers, the stage appears to be set for a healthy dose of punchouts. The Angels enter with a league-worst 28.2% strikeout rate against southpaws. Meanwhile, Luzardo will complement the Angels’ struggles with a 29.3% strikeout rate over his past 31.2 frames, and he’s gone over 6.5 punchouts in four of his past six. 

Phillies -1.5 (+104 at FanDuel)
The Phillies enter with a significant platoon advantage behind lefty Jesus Luzardo, but they also have a theoretical advantage in the home/road department as well. The Phillies own a 30-16 record at “The Bank” with a +29 run differential; conversely, the Angels are 23-26 with a -35 run differential on the road. We’re banking on the Angels struggling at the dish and the Phillies getting the second half off to a strong start in a matchup that favors them on paper. 

Spencer Strider under 8.5 strikeouts (-140 at Fanatics)
When Strider is right, he’s about as electric as Major League Baseball has to offer, but he hasn’t quite been himself since his breakthrough 2023 season. He still misses plenty of bats, but his 10.8 K/9 is a lot less dominant than his 13.5 K/9 from 2023. The Yankees’ 19.3% strikeout rate ranks as the sixth stingiest in the league, so we expect Strider to need to work for his strikeouts in this spot. His 3.4 BB/9 also suggests the possibility of his pitch count climbing due to walks and/or deep counts.

Yankees vs. Braves under 8.5 runs (-115 at FanDuel)
First things first: we’re making this play under the assumption Max Fried or Carlos Rodon start tonight’s second-half opener. The Braves have a .676 OPS against left-handers, and Fried and Rodon have looked like two of the game’s best — for stretches at least in Rodon’s case. The Yankees, meanwhile, have to face off against Spencer Strider, and while he hasn’t been quite as dominant this season, he’s still a dynamic power pitcher who can miss bats. And like most teams, the Yankees fare worse against power pitchers compared to finesse and “hybrid” types according to Baseball Reference.

Charlie Morton under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-117 at Caesars)
Morton got off to a rocky start for the Orioles, and even earned himself a demotion to bullpen, but he’s been sharp of late. He finished with a 2.30 ERA and 2.50 FIP across his final 27.1 innings entering the break. And he’s allowed fewer than three runs in four of his past five starts. The Rays rank bottom-10 in ISO and wOBA since July 1, and it remains to be seen if rising star Junior Caminero experiences any lingering effects from his impressive showing at the Home Run Derby.

Orioles moneyline first 5 innings (-104 at FanDuel)
We’re doubling down on Charlie Morton here, but also considering the inconsistent form of his counterpart, Taj Bradley, who owns a 4.95 ERA over his past 40 frames. Bradley’s 3.43 FIP indicates that he’s pitched better than his ERA suggests. He struggled his last time against the O’s though, surrendering five earned runs in 5.1 innings, and he has routinely put himself in harm’s way with baserunners (1.30 WHIP since June 1). The O’s and Rays both limped into the break, but we like Morton to lead the way for the visiting side — at least early in the contest.

Red Sox (+1.5) Take 10-Game Winning Streak to Wrigley Field

MLB is back today, and one of the marquee matchups features the suddenly relevant Red Sox (53-45) taking on the first-place Cubs (57-39) at Wrigley Field. Boston has stormed into third in the AL East with a 10-game winning streak, just 3 games behind leader Toronto.

Red Sox vs. Cubs
2:20pm ET
MLBN

• Starting Pitchers

  • BOS: Lucas Giolito (6-1), 3.36 ERA, 72.1 IP, 27 ER, 64 K, 21 BB, 1.23 WHIP

  • CHC: Colin Rea (7-3), 3.91 ERA, 92.0 IP, 40 ER, 65 K, 23 BB, 1.26 WHIP

• Spread: Cubs -1.5 (+155), Red Sox +1.5 (-184)

  • 53% of the money is with Chicago, but 55% of the bets are with Boston

• Moneyline: Cubs -134, Red Sox +114

• Total (8.5): Over +100, Under -122

Head to Head

• Current Cubs hitters have 34 at-bats against Lucas Giolito, notching 8 hits (.235 average), including 2 home runs and 8 Ks. Kyle Tucker is 5-18 with 1 2B, 5 RBI and 2 Ks.

• Colin Rea has allowed 5 hits in 20 at-bats vs. current Red Sox hitters. Trevor Story is 2-3 with a HR and 3 RBI.

Tyler Glasnow Has Been Lights-Out vs. Current Brewers Hitters (.093 Avg, .333 OPS Against)

Batters to Watch

• Rafael Devers (Giants) vs. Chris Bassitt (Blue Jays): 8-17, 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 4 K

• Nathaniel Lowe (Nationals) vs. Dylan Cease (Padres): 5-11, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 5 BB

• Matt Vierling (Tigers) vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 8-18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 K

• Steven Kwan (Guardians) vs. JP Sears (Athletics): 6-12, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

• Ryan O’Hearn (Orioles) vs. Taj Bradley (Rays): 5-12, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB

• George Springer (Blue Jays) vs. Justin Verlander (Giants): 6-16, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K

Pitchers to Watch

• Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers) has been lights-out vs. present-day Brewers hitters, allowing 4 hits in 43 at-bats (.093 average), with 18 Ks and a .333 OPS against.

• Angels hitters have a .194 average (7-36) vs. Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, who has struck out 15 of those 36 batters.

• Bailey Falter (Pirates) has only allowed 1 hit in 17 at-bats vs. current White Sox, striking out 5 and posting a minuscule .276 OPS against.

• Lowe aside, Cease has been strong vs. current Nationals hitters, allowing a .186 average (13-70) and a .605 OPS against with 19 Ks.

• Sean Manaea (Mets) has handled current Reds hitters well, giving up 9 hits in 52 at-bats (.173 average) with 14 strikeouts.

• Slade Cecconi (Guardians) hasn’t allowed an extra-base hit in 32 at-bats vs. Athletics hitters, giving up 7 singles (.219 average and slugging percentage).

• Luis Castillo (Mariners) has held current Astros hitters in check, allowing a .495 OPS against with 33 strikeouts in 102 at-bats.

• Charlie Morton (Orioles) has been strong in 48 at-bats vs. members of the Rays, striking out 18 and allowing a .208/.283/.271 slash line.

In the News 

• Is Damian Lillard’s return to Portland a good move?

• The embattled NFLPA head is out after a scandal sent shockwaves through the league.

• What T.J. Watt’s historic deal might mean for a certain other star NFL defensive player due a big payday.

• Caitlin Clark will not participate in WNBA All-Star activities.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Spain vs. Switzerland in the Women’s Euro quarterfinals on FOX

• 7pm: Detroit City FC vs. Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the USL Championship on ESPN2

• 9pm: Pacers vs. Pelicans in Las Vegas Summer League on ESPN

• 9pm: Utah Archers vs. Carolina Chaos in PLL on ESPN2/ESPN+

Photo of the Day