A Surprisingly Favorable Pitching Matchup in Anaheim + First Look at NBA Game 7 Odds and More

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Against all odds, we will have an NBA Finals Game 7

• Top 10 Bets: Yankees Fried has given up 4 earned runs over 3 starts (20 IP)

• Public Betting: Bettors are split on tonight’s Mets-Phillies matchup

• Player Profile: Cal Raleigh is MLB’s unlikely home run leader

• Overtime: Shedeur Sanders has been cited twice this month for speeding

Against all odds — literally — we will have a Game 7 in the NBA Finals.

Once again, as they have the entire series, sportsbooks are backing Oklahoma City to get it done, with FanDuel setting the Thunder at -8.5 with a -350 moneyline. Indiana’s moneyline is +280.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still the Finals MVP favorite (-250), but Pascal Siakam isn’t far behind (+360). Tipoff is Sunday at 8pm ET on ABC.

Here’s what to watch for in Game 7.

—Patrick Dorsey

Gore Allowed Just 5 Earned Runs in Past 31 Innings (1.45 ERA), But Nats Have Lost 11 of 12

By Jack Dougherty

Yankees -1.5 (-111 at FanDuel)
Facing off against ace lefty Max Fried is difficult enough, but the Orioles will do so after arriving in New York City early in the morning following a 10:45pm finish to their series finale in Tampa. Remember, the Yankees’ tailspin began when they arrived in Boston early in the morning after wrapping a series in Kansas City the night before. We’re not suggesting the same is in store for Baltimore, but they’ll have their work cut out for them Friday evening. 

Orioles under 3.5 runs (-111 at FanDuel)
The Baltimore Orioles enter play with a .598 OPS against left-handed pitching, and they’re going up against Fried, who could be en route to earning the start in the upcoming All-Star game. He’s given up a total of four earned runs across his past three starts (20 IP), and we expect him to keep a struggling and sleep deprived Orioles lineup off balance in this spot.

Max Fried under 1.5 walks allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
We touched on Fried’s recent form, which includes a 1.80 ERA and .186 opponent’s average. The numbers and metrics have been stellar all season, but this play is about more than just his statistical production. The Yankees are in the midst of a serious offensive drought, creating a pseudo “stopper” spot for Fried. Baltimore enters with a middling 8% walk rate versus lefties, and Fried has limited opponents to one walk or fewer in three of his past five starts.

Angels +1.5 first 7 innings (-154 at DraftKings)
We’re looking at Yusei Kikuchi in this spot, and his favorable home splits. He’s only surrendered four earned runs and two homers across 34.1 innings at home. That stingy home run rate will be key in this spot. Current Astros have a .205 batting average and .289 on-base percentage against Kikuchi, but they have four home runs and a .466 slugging percentage. If he can avoid the long ball, he’ll have a good chance of holding the Astros down enough to cover the runline.

Phillies moneyline (-210 at bet365)
Not only do the Mets arrive in Philadelphia with unfavorable road splits, but they’re in the midst of a serious rut. They have the unenviable task of facing off against Zack Wheeler. Wheeler was touched up by the Braves on May 29, but he’s only allowed two earned runs over 12 innings since. He’s also had recent success against the Mets, entering the start with a 2.77 ERA over his past two turns against the Mets (13 IP).

Mets under 3.5 runs (-128 at FanDuel)
It’s been a rough go for the Mets, who have dropped their past six. Now they’re off to Philadelphia with a sub-.500 road mark, and a date with a perennial Cy Young candidate in Wheeler. They have a .271 wOBA and are averaging 2.3 runs over their six-game skid. They’ll get back on track at some point, but we’re anticipating it getting worse — for at least one more game — before it gets better. 

Zack Wheeler to record a win (+125 at DraftKings)
Wheeler has pitched well in recent outings against the Mets, and he’s only allowed more than two earned runs once over his past 10 starts. He’s recorded six wins over those 10 turns, and he’ll have a great chance to add another one to his tally considering the Mets are turning to Blade Tidwell, who has 3.2 innings and six earned runs under his big-league belt.

MacKenzie Gore over 17.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings)
We like lefty Gore in this spot, even against a tough Dodgers lineup. Gore has allowed only five earned runs across his past 31 innings (1.45 ERA). He gets better after his first time through a batting order, so if he can avoid serious trouble over his first three innings, we like him to be able to work deep enough to hit the over tonight.

Dodgers moneyline (-185 at ESPNBET)
Even though we have a degree of faith in MacKenzie Gore, we’re bearish on the Nationals overall. They’re another team mired in a serious slump — 1-11 over their past 12, including a series loss to the Colorado Rockies — and they’re 15-20 on the road. They struggle against left-handed pitching, and while we’re not ready to proclaim that Clayton Kershaw is back to his “vintage” self, he has limited his past two opponents to one run across 12 innings.

Soccer

Jamaica wins (-190 at DraftKings)
On paper, this is a match from which the “Reggae Boyz” should be able to collect three points. They rank sixth in CONCACAF’s rankings while Guadeloupe would rank 13th — they’re not actually a member of FIFA, so they don't receive official rankings. Jamaica will likely enter play with a degree of urgency after dropping their opener to Guatemala, leaving them third in their group ahead of tonight’s match. Guadeloupe allowed five goals to Panama in their opener, so we like Jamaica’s opportunity to net a few tonight and get in the win column. 

28-Year-Old, Zero-Time All-Star Cal Raleigh is Leading the Majors in Home Runs (27)

Name: Cal Raleigh
Team: Mariners (37-36)
Position: Catcher
Today’s Matchup: at Cubs (45-29)
2025 Stats: .266 AVG, 14 2B, 27 HR, 60 RBI, 42 BB, .373 OBP, .622 SLG, .994 OPS

Past 5 Games

• vs. Red Sox: 1-4, 2B, K

• vs. Red Sox: 3-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, 6 RBI

• vs. Red Sox: 0-4, 2 K

• vs. Guardians: 1-4, K

• vs. Guardians: 1-3, 2B, RBI, BB

Head-to-Head

• Raleigh has never faced Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd (6-3, 2.79 ERA, 73 K in 80.2 IP).

Potential Bets

• Raleigh 2+ total bases (-115 at DraftKings), Raleigh over 0.5 RBIs (+115 at DraftKings), Raleigh under 0.5 runs (-120 at DraftKings), Raleigh to hit a home run (+215 at DraftKings).

Bettors Are Narrowly Backing Phillies (-1.5) in Big NL East Battle vs. Mets

WNBA

• Storm (-2.5, +100) at Aces (+2.5, -115): 55% of the money is with Las Vegas, but 67% of the bets are with Seattle

MLB

• Mariners at Cubs (-1.5, +158): 76% of the money and 56% of the bets are with Chicago

• Rangers (-1.5, -113) at Pirates: 72% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Texas

• Orioles at Yankees (-1.5, -110): 96% of the money and 81% of the bets are with New York

• Tigers at Rays (+1.5, -176): 62% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Tampa Bay

• White Sox at Blue Jays (-1.5, -110): 78% of the money and 78% of the bets are with Toronto

• Braves (-1.5, +116) at Marlins: 69% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Miami

• Reds (+1.5, -182) at Cardinals: 71% of the money and 74% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Mets at Phillies (-1.5, -110): 63% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Brewers (+1.5, -160) at Twins: 64% of the money and 64% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Astros (-1.5, -105) at Angels (+1.5, -114): 51% of the money is with Houston, but 58% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Royals at Padres (-1.5, +116): 80% of the money and 53% of the bets are with San Diego

• Guardians (-1.5, +120) at Athletics (+1.5, -144): 79% of the money is with Cleveland, but 51% of the bets are with the Athletics

• Nationals at Dodgers (-1.5, +100): 92% of the money and 81% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Red Sox (+1.5, -200) at Giants: 70% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Boston

In the News 

• Shedeur Sanders has actually been cited twice this month for speeding.

• Former star NFL running back Adrian Peterson was seen on video getting into a fist fight over a poker game.

• A Pirates reliever was caught on camera in the bullpen throwing a punch at a fan.

• Kobe Bryant’s nephew is headed to Oregon — to play football.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: Women’s PGA Championship on Golf Channel/NBC/Peacock

• 2pm: Flamengo vs. Chelsea in the Club World Cup on TNT/truTV/DAZN

• 7:15pm: Mets vs. Phillies on Apple TV+

• 9pm: Bayern Munich vs. Boca Juniors in the Club World Cup on TBS/DAZN

• 9:40pm: Royals vs. Padres on Apple TV+

Photo of the Day