Our NFL Preseason Coverage is Starting Tomorrow + Today's Top 10 Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: About our NFL preseason coverage

• Top 10 Bets: Day 1 at Wimbledon

• NFL: 5 trends to get you ready to bet this season

• Player to Watch: Wheeler has 8 Ks in 3 straight starts

• Overtime: How every NBA team can win their offseason

A programming note for you as we head into July: Starting tomorrow, we’ll have fantasy previews for all 32 NFL teams leading up to the start of the regular season. This extra coverage will be available to all Sportmoney Daily subscribers, who are currently getting our Top 10 Bets seven days per week.

To help get you ready for the NFL season, if you subscribe to Sportmoney Daily this week we’ll give you July and August for free — and it’s just $2.99/month after that. So subscribe today if you want our in-depth NFL coverage leading into the regular season.

And we’re kicking off our NFL coverage today with five overall betting trends to watch this season.

—Abe Rakov

Day 1 at Wimbledon Features Osaka, Olympic Champion and British No. 1

By Chris Farley

Zheng Qinwen 2-1 (+290 at FanDuel)
By now our readers know that Zheng is among the best tennis players in the world, rightfully 6th in WTA rankings. The Chinese star is coming off an unsuccessful run at the French Open after winning gold in Paris a year ago, but she still got to the quarterfinals. And for what it's worth, almost no one has beaten Aryna Sabalenka this year. In any event, Zheng's grass prowess is underwhelming, just 2-1 this year and an ugly 45% win-rate in her career, although her two wins were impressive (she beat the upstart McCartney Kessler and grass-court phenom Emma Raducanu in straight sets). The 22-year-old will face Katerina Siniakova in round one, who owns a 57.75% win-rate on grass and is a formidable 6-3 this year.

Naomi Osaka 2-0 (-200 at DraftKings)
Osaka's quest to become the elite Grand Slam winner she once was is losing steam. In moments she's shown the same refined, powerful strokes that once had her zooming past the world's best, but this year she's only 18-9 overall, winning just $563,000 in prize money more than halfway through the season. Wimbledon is her least successful Grand Slam, having only made it as far as the third round (2017, 2018). Fortunately, the World #53 has a nice matchup in her opener, taking on 21-year-old Talia Gibson, a player who has even less experience on grass (10-10 in her career) and hasn't looked good any time she competed on the WTA tour (2-5). This is a great chance for Osaka to gain early momentum, and we think she takes advantage.

Krueger vs. Stojsavljevic over 19.5 games (+100 at BetOnline)
Ashlyn Krueger is one of tennis' rising stars. She's been very active in 2025 (21-18) and has scored some big wins over names like Siniakova, Fernandez, and Rybakina. It's too early in her career to tell if she'll excel long-term on grass, but so far she's accrued a respectable 16-12 record over four seasons on the surface. In round one she'll battle 16-year-old Mika Stojsavljevic, who was last year's U.S. Open juniors champion. Officially becoming a part of the WTA as a professional player this Spring, we'd be foolish to doubt the Brit's potential on this surface, where she's spent most of her training — and she'll have the home crowd behind her. Krueger likely wins; we doubt it's easy.

Amanda Anismova 2-1 (+280 at FanDuel)
Anisimova has been showing signs of a future Grand Slam champion lately, particularly on grass. Now ranked 13th, she started the year at 36th and it's been a steady climb all season — so far more successful on grass (6-2) than any other surface. That's true in her career, too, where she's won 63.64% of all grass-court games. This might suggest that Anisimova will mow over early round competition, but she didn't get an easy draw at Wimbledon. Yulia Putintseva is never a simple out, although she's only won 50% on grass (28-28) in her career. In 2024 she was a sterling 8-1 on the surface but just hasn't found her form this year. Still the Russian has a way of stepping up in big clashes, and we like her to extend this match against the climbing American.

Marketa Vondrousova vs. McCartney Kessler over 21.5 games (-110 at BetOnline)
Vondrousova is starting to look like the same killer who took the tennis world by surprise in 2023, where she won Wimbledon, her first Grand Slam title. Perhaps more than any other player, Vondrousova is entering London with a tremendous amount of momentum, beating five elites, including World #1 Aryna Sabalenka, on her way to a tournament win in Berlin. Of course, we could say the same thing for Kessler, who's coming off a win at the Nottingham Open, although the competition wasn't quite as top-heavy. In any case, this should make for an interesting battle and Kessler has shown tremendous resolve since the French Open, 6-1 overall and her only loss went to three sets against Zheng Qinwen. We expect a barnburner!

Elise Mertens 2-1 (+300 at DraftKings)
Linda Fruhvirtova leads the head-to-head series with Mertens, but it's really tough to bet against the Belgian in early rounds. Her first round loss to Lois Boisson at Roland Garros was a rare outlier for Mertens, who routinely gets beyond lower-ranked women in Grand Slam events. Meanwhile, Fruhvirtova lives in first-round failure, as she hasn't made it beyond the opening match since 2023 (at the Australian Open). The Czech’s powerful style gives her an advantage against Mertens, who thrives at defending and avoiding mistakes, a recipe that has won her many battles against elites. Ultimately we like Mertens to return to her pattern of early success, although we also like a confident Fruhvirtova to fit well as a very formidable opponent.

Emma Raducanu 2-0 (-210 at FanDuel)
It's hard to know how preliminary tournaments affect players leading into a Grand Slam. Raducanu was hoping to have more momentum, surely, but instead has succumbed to early exits in her last two events. A loss to Zheng Qinwen in London wasn't completely shameful, Zheng is a top-10 player, but in Eastbourne she fell to Maya Joint, an up and comer in the WTA but someone Raducanu should have discarded with ease on grass. Fortunately, the British player will take on another local, Mingge Xu, but the 17-year-old hasn't shown much this year and has never been sturdy on her home surface (a career 41% win-rate on the greens). This sets up well for Raducanu to dominate.

Gabriel Diallo -5.5 (+110 at BetOnline)
Daniel Altmaier is no stranger to playing David against Goliath and coming out on top, just look back at his dynamic first-round win at the French Open against Taylor Fritz, beating the World #5 in just four sets. He rode that momentum into the fourth round before losing to Francis Tiafoe. His style is far less potent on grass, though, where his savvy maneuvers and stout defense cripples on the bouncy surface. The German is just 1-2 this season and wins at a lowly 39.29% clip on grass in his career. Gabriel Diallo is having a fantastic year, winning his first ever ATP title recently in Libema. He's also winning first-service games at a ridiculous 84% clip this season. We expect him to overwhelm Altmaier.

Jacob Fearnley moneyline (+185 at Bovada)
Joao Fonseca is an 18-year-old from Brazil that has achieved a World #54 ranking after starting the year in the mid-100s. Breaking out during clay-court season, the kid has a style that mirrors Carlos Alcaraz and many of the world's best, able to seemingly return any shot on the court with all-world athleticism and supreme racket-skill. His meteoric rise has slowed down a bit during grass season, though, just 1-2 on the surface, and in four seasons he's just 7-8 overall. Jacob Fearnley is in the opposite position. From Worcester, England, the 23-year-old is just as savvy as his younger opponent and impressed in his last two events, beating out Corentin Moutet and 24th-ranked Flavio Cobolli in Eastbourne. He should be favored.

Alexander Zverev vs. Arthur Rinderknech over 36.5 games (-110 at BetOnline)
Zverev continues his quest for a Grand Slam title in London, but Wimbledon has never been his bread and butter. He's made the finals in all three of the other Slams, but has failed to make it beyond the third round on grass's biggest stage. Still, he remains a high seed and has been given an inferior opponent that he should beat, but Rinderknech is no easy out. The Frenchman has a massive serve that utilizes the bouncy surface to his advantage and he's been thriving on green, beating names like Denis Shapovalov and Ben Shelton in recent events, making a quarterfinals appearance at the Queen's Club Championships. Zverez likely finds a way, but his defense won't be as sturdy in this venue, which is where Rinderknech can do real damage. 

Five Tips to Consider as You Start Preparing for NFL Betting

We’re kicking off our NFL coverage tomorrow with our first fantasy preview, but today we wanted to give you five things to look for as you’re starting to think about your bets for the season.

1. Early-Season Unders: Totals Market Still Lags

Scoring across the league dipped in the first month of 2024 (down 8.7% YoY through Week 4), and early totals lines were slow to adjust. Look for a repeat in 2025 as new offensive coordinators and young QBs work through growing pains.

• In 2024: Week 1–4 unders hit at 62.5%

• Why: Limited preseason reps and complex schemes bog down timing

• Best Value: Look for matchups with new OC/QB pairings, especially in outdoor games or low-total divisional battles

2. Division Home Underdogs: Still the Sportsbooks’ Blind Spot

Home underdogs in division matchups have quietly been one of the most profitable ATS bets over the past three seasons.

• In 2024: Home underdogs between +2.5 and +5.5 in divisional games covered 57.3% ATS

• Why: Familiarity reduces talent gaps, and public money leans too heavily on favorites

• Best value: Early-season games (Weeks 1–6), especially when the underdog is coming off a loss

  • Trend to watch: Favorites off a prime-time win vs. a divisional home underdog is sharp fade spot

3. Rookies & Young QBs: Prop and Totals are Worth Watching

Expect a decent number of rookie or second-year quarterbacks starting in 2025, making the QB market highly exploitable.

• Angle #1: Team Totals & Game Unders

  • Rookie-led teams averaged just 17.8 PPG in 2024

    • Trend to watch: Look for first-half unders, especially in low-total games where both QBs are under 25 years old

• Angle #2: QB Rushing Props

  • Sportsbooks underpriced mobile QB rushing lines all last season

4. Prime-Time Overreaction: Fades Still Pay

Prime-time games skew perception—and betting lines. Casual bettors overreact to both breakout performances and blowouts.

• Favorites off a big prime-time win went just 38.9% ATS the following week in 2024

• Underdogs off embarrassing losses had a 59.1% ATS bounce-back rate in next game

• Check Week 2–11 lines early Monday, before sportsbooks shift for Monday Night Football biases

5. Late-Season Line Movement: Injuries & Motivation Matter

December and January games are where sharp bettors clean up—if they watch team motivation.

• Trend: Teams eliminated from playoff contention after Week 13 went just 33.7% ATS in their final three games over the past 5 seasons

• Why: Backup QBs, coaching uncertainty, and player rest impact consistency

• Watch: Injury news and rest reports swing lines as much as 3 points in Weeks 16–18, so track movement and act early

Wheeler Holds Padres Batters to a .163 Lifetime Average with 18 Strikeouts in 92 At Bats

Name: Zack Wheeler
Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Position: Starting Pitcher
Today’s Matchup: vs. San Diego Padres (6:35pm on MLB Network)
2025 Stats: 7-3, 16 starts, 99.0 innings, 2.45 ERA, 126 Ks, 0.92 WHIP

Past 5 Games

• June 25 at Astros: 6.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 0 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 8 K, 100 pitches

• June 20 vs. Mets: 5.0 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 0 HR, 3 BB, 8 K, 98 pitches

• June 15 vs. Blue Jays: 6.0 innings, 4 hits, 2 runs, 1 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 9 K, 94 pitches

• June 9 vs. Cubs: 6.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 7 K, 103 pitches

• May 29 vs. Braves: 5.1 innings, 4 hits, 6 runs, 6 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 6 K, 107 pitches

Matchup

• Wheeler has held current Padres batters to a .163 average and .181 OBP in his career.

  • 92 at bats: 15 hits, 4 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 18K

In the News 

• A look at how each team in the NBA can have a great offseason.

• Angel Reese set a WNBA record by grabbing 15 or more rebounds in four straight games.

• The youngest player on the PGA Tour got his first win yesterday.

• Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal struck out eight batters across three innings, and 13 overall.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Inter vs. Fluminense

• 6:35pm: Padres vs. Phillies on MLB Network

• 9pm: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal on TBS

• 9:40pm: Giants vs. Diamondbacks on FS1

Photo of the Day