In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Formula 1 is finally competitive again

2. NFL Bets to Watch: Allen’s ground attack, the 49ers and Texans defense, and more

3. Soccer: Manchester City reclaimed momentum with 4 wins in 5 games

4. Public Money: Two NFL games where the handle and bets are split

5. Overtime: Quarterback injury updates

1. Leading Off

After McLaren's dominant performance at the Dutch Grand Prix in late August, the Formula 1 season appeared all but decided. Zak Brown's team held a commanding lead in the Constructors' Championship and was all but assured back-to-back titles, while the drivers' crown looked set to be a two-way battle between teammates Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris.

McLaren wrapped up the team championship in early October with six races still remaining, but the drivers' title has proven far more dramatic. Four-time defending champion Max Verstappen has surged back into contention, capturing three of the last four races, with Mercedes' George Russell taking the other victory. What was once a comfortable margin for Piastri has evaporated: he now leads Norris by just 14 points, while Norris sits 26 points ahead of the resurgent Verstappen with five races remaining. With seven points separating first and second place finishes in each race, plus two sprint race weekends still to come, the championship battle remains wide open.

Norris, the preseason favorite, earned his first pole in since July with one of the best laps of the season in yesterday’s Mexico City Grand Prix qualifying. He’s now the heavy favorite (-230) to win the race and inch closer to the top of the standings. Ferrari continued its improvement yesterday, as Charles Leclerc (+410) is starting second and Lewis Hamilton (+1900) will begin the race from the third spot. Verstappen’s momentum could be slowed, as he qualified 5th and is +750 to win, while Piastri’s slump continued: He’s starting 7th (+4500) in today’s race, which starts at 4pm ET on ABC.

After three of the past five seasons were dominated by runaway champions and dozens of uninteresting races, which undermined the momentum Formula 1 had built in the United States through Netflix's Drive to Survive, the sport desperately needs this kind of down-to-the-wire championship fight — especially as it prepares to transition its broadcast rights to Apple TV next year.

—Abe Rakov

2. NFL Bets to Watch

Mayfield is Going Up Against Saints Defense that Gives Up 7.5 Yards Per Pass (23rd in NFL)

By Chris Farley

Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield over 243.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Last week was a true outlier performance by Tampa Bay. In a very tough spot at Detroit, the Bucs only mustered 251 total yards, with the majority coming…

3. Soccer

Man City’s Haaland Scored 11 Goals in 8 Premier League Games

By Sam Farley

Manchester City to win vs. Aston Villa (-118 at BetMGM)

• After a slow start to the season we’ve seen Man City hit form with four wins in their past five games.

• Aston Villa rank in the bottom-half of the table in goals scored, averaging just one goal per game, while City are averaging over two per game.

Manchester City F Erling Haaland to score (-110 at DraftKings)

• Haaland is leading the Premier League scoring charts with 11 goals in eight games.

• He’s now scored in 12 straight games for club and country, bagging 22 goals in that span.

4. Public Money

A Look at Where Bettors Have Money in All 11 of Today’s NFL Games

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Takeaways from Game 2 of the World Series, a Dodgers win behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s second straight complete game.

• The Falcons are likely to start quarterback Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix Jr. banged up, while Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson will miss his third straight game (Baltimore is 1-5 and plays the 4-2 Bears). Jets quarterback Justin Fields is keeping his starting role, as backup Tyrod Taylor has been ruled out due to injury.

• The NFL is investigating the Ravens for potentially being purposely misleading about Lamar Jackson’s practice status.

• Texas coach Steve Sarkisian called a report that he’d consider moving to the NFL “absolutely ridiculous.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 10am: Aston Villa vs. Manchester City on USA (followed by Everton vs. Tottenham at 12:30pm)

• 11:15am: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona on ESPN2

• 1pm: Bills vs. Panthers on FOX (or Giants vs. Eagles)

• 4pm: Mexico City Grand Prix on ABC

• 4:25pm: Cowboys vs. Broncos on CBS

• 8:20pm: Packers vs. Steelers on NBC