In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: We crushed it in October

2. NFL Bets to Watch: The Texans offensive is trending in the right direction

3. Soccer: Manchester City faces the Premier League upstarts

4. Public Money: 6 NFL plays where the handle and bets are aligned in a big way

5. Overtime: One of the most improbable World Series games ever

1. Leading Off

The numbers are in: We gave our paid subscribers 145 NFL bets in October — won 83 and lost 62 for an incredible 57.24% win rate. I say incredible because nobody should expect us, or anyone else, to keep that up every month. But we’ll take it. Our betting insights resulted in a net of 10.64 units for the month.

Thank you for subscribing to our free newsletter. We're glad you're with us, but you're missing out on our experts' takes on 10 bets a day — 20 on NFL Sundays. Now that you see the proof that we're a steal at $2.99/month (our Friday writer Todd ran the table and went 10-0 a couple of days ago), we hope you upgrade to our paid subscription so you get our full research, analysis and stats 7 days a week. We'll give you your first month free. You can upgrade at this link: 

Now on to football: The NFL's best rivalry of the 2020s is back this afternoon: Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs travel to Buffalo to face Josh Allen and the Bills. Both teams sit in the middle of their divisions, as Kansas City is 5-3 while Buffalo is 5-2. This one is big for momentum and playoff seeding.

The Bills have won four straight regular season games against the Chiefs, but Kansas City has won all four playoff matchups in that span, including last year's AFC Championship. This might be the Chiefs' last trip to Highmark Stadium before Buffalo opens a new home next season.

Today’s NFL slate also includes:

• Jonathan Taylor and the 7-1 Colts visit Pittsburgh: The league's best record meets a tough Steelers squad in an early afternoon showdown.

• Green Bay has a chance to confirm it belongs in the Super Bowl conversation: The Packers face a scrappy Panthers team that could expose whether they're contenders or pretenders.

• Jayden Daniels returns for Washington's Sunday night game against Seattle: The quarterback is set to start and try to and save the Commanders season against a 5-2 Seahawks team fighting for playoff position.

—Abe Rakov

P.S. Remember, we were up over 10 units in October so $2.99 for the month is a steal. Get your first month free: sportmoney.com/upgrade. Or go all in and sign up for a year — we’ll give you 25% off our normal price, so it’s just $22.50.

2. NFL Bets to Watch

Gibbs Faces Minnesota Rush Defense That Gives Up 130.4 Yards per Game

By Chris Farley

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs over 71.5 rushing yards (-118 at BetMGM)
It's not talked about very often, but the Vikings are not very good against the run. The brand of coordinator Brian Flores is that he's an "aggressive" play-caller, the kind opposing offenses should fear. Against quarterbacks that's somewhat true; Minnesota is once again one of the best pass-rushing teams in the NFL, earning a sack on 8.82% of plays (5th). But against the run…

3. Soccer

Can Surprising Bournemouth Hold Off Manchester City at the Etihad?

By Sam Farley

Newcastle to win vs. West Ham (-160 at BetMGM)

• West Ham haven’t experienced a change in fortunes since Nuno Espirito Santo took over as manager and have now lost three straight games in the Premier League — with the worst defense in the league whilst doing so.

• Newcastle are finding form after a slow start and have two wins in their past three. They also have four clean sheets in their past six games in all competitions, and the best defensive record in the bottom half of the table.

Manchester City vs. Bournemouth: Draw or Bournemouth at Half Time Double Chance (-125 at Bet365)

• Bournemouth are performing exceptionally, second in the Premier League table with just one defeat all season. They’ll fancy their chances even against a strong Man City team.

• Bournemouth have been excellent in the first half of games with the best record in the Premier League, losing at halftime just once, scoring eight and allowing just two goals.

4. Public Money

Bettors are Significantly Behind Chargers, Colts, and Chiefs vs. Bills Over

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Didn’t stay up for the Dodgers’ come-from-behind, completely improbable World Series win? Here’s what you missed as Los Angeles became the first MLB team to repeat as champions in 25 years.

• The Eagles added cornerback Jaire Alexander in a trade with the Ravens to fortify Philadelphia’s defensive backfield. The Eagles’ passing defense is middle of the pack, giving up 215.9 yards through the air a game (18th).

• After falling at SMU, Miami coach Mario Cristobal has now lost six games when his team was a double-digit favorite — the most in college football since 2022. The 6-2 Hurricanes are now very unlikely to find their way into the College Football Playoff, while No. 20 Texas’s win over No. 9 Vanderbilt gives the finding-his-stride Arch Manning and the Longhorns new life as a trip to Georgia looms in two weeks.

• After directing another easy win for No. 1 Ohio State with 316 yards and four touchdowns, Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin is now the favorite to win the Heisman. Earlier in the day on College GameDay, Nick Saban made fun of himself for sitting Sayin when he coached the quarterback at Alabama.

• The Grizzlies suspended Ja Morant for one game because of “conduct detrimental to the team.” As ESPN reported, Morant told “reporters to ‘go ask the coaching staff’ while responding to questions about his performance without explaining further. He is averaging a career-low 28.5 minutes through six games.”

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 9am: West Ham vs. Newcastle on USA (followed by Manchester City vs. AFC Bournemouth at 11:30am)

• 1pm: Panthers vs. Packers on FOX (or Colts vs. Steelers on CBS)

• 4:25pm: Chiefs vs. Bills on CBS

• 8:20pm: Seahawks vs. Commanders on NBC

• 8:45pm: Austin FC vs. LAFC (1-0) on FS1