In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: Yesterday’s NFL slate showed the league has remarkable parity

2. Bets to Watch: 8 Monday Night Football plays + an NBA insight and MLB future

3. Top 10: The men’s college basketball teams that can compete for the title

4. Public Money: NBA teams that bettors are tracking today

5. Overtime: Movement up and down the college football Top 25 poll

1. Leading Off

First the Bills gave up a first down on 4th and 17 to start the fourth quarter. The drive eventually led to the Chiefs cutting the lead to 28-21 after a touchdown and two-point conversion. Then Buffalo kicker Matt Prater missed a 52-yard field goal that would have sealed the win with 27 seconds left — he was 12-13 on the season before then. It really looked like another Bills struggle and Chiefs miracle was in the works. But after an 18-yard completion to start the ensuing drive, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes couldn’t pull off a miracle and Buffalo held on for their fifth-straight regular season win over Kansas City.

The Chiefs haven’t shown the level of play we’re used to seeing from them this season, but because uncertainty and inconsistency from every other team in the NFL, the sportsbooks are sticking with who they know. Not only was Kansas City a road favorite in that game, even after the loss — in which Mahomes had his first-ever start where he completed under 50% of his passes (he was 15-34) — the Chiefs remained the Super Bowl favorites at +550 at FanDuel. Buffalo is now second at +650, with Philadelphia (+800), Detroit (+900), the Rams (+1000) and Green Bay (+1100) following.

Here’s what else we learned so far in Week 9 in the NFL:

• The Packers aren’t ready for prime time: Yes the Panthers are one of the surprise teams of the season so far, but if you want to compete for a Super Bowl, you can’t lose to them at home. You also can’t score just 13 points. Green Bay (5-2-1) isn’t done, but the team now has a lot to prove.

• Indianapolis has been a product of their schedule: The Colts have been a great story this year, but that could be because they have had one of the easier schedules in the NFL. Indianapolis lost 27-20 at Pittsburgh yesterday, a respectable showing, but now has the 6th-toughest remaining schedule. At 7-2, the Colts probably banked enough early wins to contend for a playoff spot, but it’s looking like that should be the primary goal this year.

• The Broncos keep finding ways to win: It was a struggle, but Denver had another fourth-quarter comeback against a mediocre team to get a victory. After outscoring the Texans 11-0 in the final frame to win 18-15, the Broncos are now 7-2 and have won six in a row, tied with the resurgent Patriots for the longest current streak in the league.

—Abe Rakov

P.S. After we told you about our NFL success yesterday (over 57% hit rate in October), we had a record number of people upgrade to a paid subscription. You can join them and get one month free: sportmoney.com/upgrade. It’s just $2.99/month after that — a great deal considering we were up over 10 units last month.

2. Bets to Watch

Cowboys Are Averaging 34.4 Points Per Game Over Past 5 Matchups (2-2-1)

By Craig Williams

Cowboys moneyline (-168 at FanDuel)
The Cardinals have dropped five straight and they’re 5-15 on the road since 2023. We won’t paint the Cowboys as an…

3. Top 10

Purdue Starts Season No. 1, But It Could Be Houston’s Time to Win the National Title

The race for the 2026 national championship is wide open as the men’s college basketball season tips off today. Over a dozen schools have built rosters that could realistically win it all. Here's who has the best shot at cutting down the nets in Indianapolis this April:

1. Purdue: The Boilermakers start the season ranked No. 1 in the AP poll for the first time in school history. They return their core from last season's Sweet 16 run, including point guard Braden Smith, who won Big Ten Player of the Year and had the nation's second-best assist rate. Forward Trey Kaufman-Renn averaged over 20 points per game last season and shot nearly 60% from the field. South Dakota State transfer Oscar Cluff gives them a double-double machine in the paint.

2. Houston: The Cougars came within seconds of winning their first national championship last season, losing 65-63 to Florida in the title game. Coach Kelvin Sampson brought in the nation's No. 2 recruiting class with three top-25 prospects. Point guard Milos Uzan returns along with Emanuel Sharp, who was second on the team with 12.6 points per game. They've been a No. 1 seed for three straight years.

3. Duke: Coach Jon Scheyer replaced five NBA draft picks with another top recruiting class. Freshman Cameron Boozer, son of former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, put up 33 points and 12 rebounds in his first exhibition game. The Blue Devils return Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster, who each played 36+ games and averaged about 14 minutes.

4. UConn: Last season was a rebuilding year for coach Dan Hurley after losing nearly everyone to the NBA and graduation after back-to-back championships. Even still, UConn went 24-11 and lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament to eventual champion Florida. Now they return five key rotation players including Alex Karaban and Solo Ball. Hurley has built one of the deepest rosters in the nation.

5. Florida: The defending national champions lost three guards to the NBA but return their frontcourt. After winning the school’s first championship since 2007, coach Todd Golden signed a six-year extension worth over $40 million. Star forward Alex Condon came back after testing the NBA waters, and the Gators added Princeton transfer Xaivian Lee and former Arkansas guard Boogie Fland to run the backcourt.

6. Kentucky: Coach Mark Pope’s Wildcats surprisingly didn’t take a step back in his first season with Lexington, as Kentucky won 24 games with a completely rebuilt roster. They had more wins than in each of John Calipari last two seasons at the school and made it to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019. Kentucky returns leading scorer Otega Oweh and big man Brandon Garrison, while Pope added Pitt transfer Jaland Lowe to run the point. Jayden Quaintance, an Arizona State transfer and projected lottery pick, gives the Wildcats elite frontcourt depth.

7. Louisville: In his first season at Louisville, coach Pat Kelsey led his team to 27 wins — more than the previous three seasons combined — and was named ACC Coach of the Year. The Cards return five scholarship players and added three top-25 transfers. Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely join a roster built for Kelsey's fast-paced system.

8. Texas Tech: The Red Raiders return one of the nation's best inside-outside duos. Forward JT Toppin is a leading candidate for National Player of the Year. Guard Christian Anderson complements him with elite playmaking and 37% three-point shooting. Coach Grant McCasland has Texas Tech positioned to compete for a Big 12 championship.

9. Arizona: Unlike most of his peers who relied on the transfer market, coach Tommy Lloyd is building around freshman talent this season. The Wildcats have one of the best recruiting classes in the country, bringing in two five stars, a four-star forward and LeBron James’s son Bryce (a three-star recruit). They open the season with a huge early test against Florida in Las Vegas tonight.

10. BYU: The Cougars return their leading scorer, Richie Saunders, from last season's 26-win Sweet 16 team and added five transfers and five-star recruit AJ Dybantsa, a projected top-3 NBA Lottery pick. Their schedule includes early tests against UConn and Villanova.

Next Up: UCLA, Illinois, Tennessee, Kansas and Alabama

4. Public Money

Six NBA Games Where 60%+ of Spread Bettors Are Backing a Team Tonight

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Jayden Daniels dislocated his elbow in the Commanders’ loss yesterday, according to ESPN. He’s schedule to have an MRI today to determine how long he will be out, which could be the entire remainder of what has become a nightmare sophomore season for the quarterback.

• A 68-yard field goal is now possible in the NFL, as Jaguars kicker Cam Little set a new record in the first half of Jacksonville’s 30-29 overtime win over the Raiders. The kick had room to spare and probably would have been good from 70+ yards.

• The Big 12 has two top-10 football teams for the first time in two years, but that will likely only last a week as No. 8 BYU faces No. 9 Texas Tech in Lubbock on Saturday. The top seven teams remained unchanged in this week’s AP Poll, but Notre Dame moved up to 10th. Oklahoma (11th) and Texas (13th) each shot up seven spots, and the ACC’s Georgia Tech (16th) and Miami (18th) both fell eight places.

• The SEC football firing spree continued, with Auburn letting go coach Hugh Freeze after just 2+ seasons and South Carolina dismissing offensive coordinator Mike Shula. Freeze was 15-19, 6-16 in the SEC, in his time at Auburn and is owed $15.8 million. Shula, the former Alabama head coach who was just nine games into his tenure at South Carolina, led the worst offense in the conference.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12pm: No. 7 Duke vs. No. 16 Baylor women’s college basketball on ESPN

• 7pm: Timberwolves vs. Nets on Peacock (or No. 3 Florida vs. No. 13 Arizona men’s college basketball on TNT)

• 7:30pm: Penguins vs. Maple Leafs on NHL Network

• 8:15pm: Cardinals vs. Cowboys at 8:15pm on ABC/ESPN 

• 9:30pm: Villanova vs. BYU men’s basketball on TNT

• 10pm: Lakers vs. Trail Blazers on NBA TV

• 10:45pm: Seattle Sounders vs. Minnesota United on FS1