Who’s Fading in the NFL, Insights for NBA Matchups + Players to Watch Tonight

We also look at the three NFL home underdogs bettors are backing this weekend

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: The NFL teams that are fading down the stretch

2. The Rundown: The top head coaching candidates for any upcoming NFL openings

3. Game of the Day: Steph is (likely) back as Warriors face Timberwolves

4. By the Numbers: Three NFL home underdogs bettors are backing in Week 15

5. Overtime: Things aren’t working out for Travis Kelce this year, at least on the football field

1. Leading Off

Atlanta’s walk-off field goal win over Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football was the Buccaneers’ fifth loss in six games. The team that started 5-1 in one of the weakest divisions in the NFL and looked destined for its fifth-straight postseason berth has completely fallen apart. The Buccaneers were up 14 with 10 minutes left, and the Falcons had nothing left to play for in a forgettable season. But Tampa inexplicably gave up two touchdowns and a field goal to end the game, somehow losing 29-28 in regulation despite stopping both two-point conversation attempts.

“As a coach, you can sit there until you're blue in the face,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said afterward. “Until they start holding each other accountable and doing the little things right, and that's not everybody, you know, we’re talking about a small, select few. But the small, select few is what's getting us beat. And until that happens, it's not going to get right.”

The Buccaneers are now a half-game behind upstart Panthers (7-6) in the NFC South. Carolina, which plays 3-10 New Orleans on Sunday, hasn’t finished with a winning record since 2017, the last time the team went to the playoffs. The Panthers last won the division in 2015, led by NFL MVP Cam Newton. What looked like a glitch in the schedule when it was released has turned into a feature, as Tampa Bay and Carolina play twice in the final three weeks of the season in a mini-playoff to decide the NFL South crown.

Tampa isn’t the only team fading down the stretch, though. The other teams we’re watching: The Ravens have lost two straight in the division after it looked like their comeback to take the AFC North was all-but certain. After a 7-1 start, the Colts are probably finished in the AFC South after losing three of four games and their starting quarterback. The Eagles won’t (shouldn’t) lose the NFC East, but that’s only because the division is so bad — they’ve lost three in a row, but three of their final four games are against teams already eliminated from the playoffs. And the Bears have won five of six, so they have no business being on this list, but their schedule is brutal after playing the Browns on Sunday, so we’re keeping an eye on them: vs. Green Bay, at San Francisco, vs. Detroit.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. In just a few days, Sportmoney turns into Sportspage. You’ll still get the insights, data, and analysis you’ve come to expect, plus even more. Sportmoney will become our premium sports betting product and will relaunch in 2026, so stay tuned. Starting next Monday, look for Sportspage in your inbox!

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2. The Rundown

As the NFL Season Draws Nearer to a Close, the Coaching Carousel Will Start to Spin

• Conor Orr of Sports Illustrated runs through the 43 best head coaching candidates for future NFL openings: From guys who have had the job before like Robert Saleh and Mike McCarthy to sought-after coordinators including Buffalo’s OC Joe Brady and Green Bay’s DC Jeff Hafley to Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman. Definitely bookmark this list because it’s worth going back to if your team’s coach ends up on the hot seat in the next year or two.

• With just two more wins, the Steelers would break the tie they’re currently in with the Cowboys for the most consecutive non-losing seasons in NFL history. The Steelers have home games against the Dolphins and Ravens and road matchups with the Lions and Browns. Pittsburgh’s streak began in 2004, while Dallas’s run went from 1965-1985. Both teams won two Super Bowls during the 21-season runs. The Patriots have the second-longest stretch, 19 seasons from 2001-2018, during which they won six championships.

• After another disappointing season, the Mets front office decided shake things up — and that means Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Díaz, and Pete Alonso won’t be in Queens next year. The moves struck a nerve with their fans, though, as they also happened to be three of the most popular players on the team. “I’m flabbergasted,” said Mets broadcaster and former pitcher, Ron Darling, on MLB Network.

• Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez was the first player to miss the cut for an invitation to the Heisman ceremony, finishing in fifth but not close enough to go to New York with the top four. Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith was sixth and Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton finished seventh. The remaining finalists were Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (8th), Buckeyes defensive back Caleb Downs (9th), and Georgia Tech QB Haynes King (10th).

• ESPN has a feature out noting that 44-year-old Philip Rivers wouldn’t be the first grandfather in professional sports if he ends up playing for the Colts on Sunday. As J.J. Post writes, Rivers’ eldest daughter is older than the quarterback Rivers might sub in for, rookie Riley Leonard. Brett Favre and Gordie Howe are two of the athletes mentioned in the article, which is worth your time.

3. Game of the Day

Curry is (Likely) Back and Edwards Broke Through Slump, So Warriors vs. Timberwolves Should See Points

Stephen Curry is expected to be back in the lineup for the Warriors after missing the past five games with a thigh contusion. That’s good news for Golden State, which went 2-3 without him. The Warriors take on the Timberwolves, who have the seventh-best offense in the NBA at 119.6 points a night. Minnesota star Anthony Edwards broke out of a mini-slump, scoring 40 points on over 71% shooting last time out after tallying 15 and 11 in the two games prior.

Timberwolves (15-9, 7-5 Away) vs. Warriors (13-12, 7-3 Home)
10pm on NBA TV

The Odds

• Spread: MIN (+2.5, -112), GS (-2.5, -108)

  • 57% of the money is with the Warriors but 57% of the bets are with the Timberwolves

  • ATS | MIN (road): 4-8, GS (home): 6-4

• Moneyline: MIN +136, GS -162

• Total (230.5): Over -114, Under -106

  • MIN: 12-12, GS: 13-12

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• GS F Jimmy Butler | Points: 18.5 (19.5 - 19, 6, 24), Reb: 6.5 (5.7 - 8, 3, 8), Ast: 05.50 (5.0 - 6, 1, 10)

• GS F Buddy Hield | Points: 8.5 (8.0 - 9, 13, 14), Reb: 2.5 (2.6 - 7, 7, 8)

• MIN F Julius Randle | Points: 21.5 (22.9 - 21, 24, 28), Reb: 7.5 (7.1 - 3, 3, 9), Ast: 5.5 (6.0 - 8, 6, 3)

• MIN G Anthony Edwards | Points: 27.5 (28.7 - 40, 15, 11), Reb: 5.5 (4.9 - 9, 6, 6), Ast: 4.5 (3.8 - 2, 4, 4)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 3 games, most recent to least recent.

4. By the Numbers

Mitchell Scored 28+ in 4 Straight for Cavs, Gets NBA’s Worst Defense in Wizards Tonight

NBA

• Hawks (14-11, 10-5 Away) vs. Pistons (19-5, 10-2 Home)

  • ATL (+7.5, -110), DET (-7.5, -110): 53% of the money is with Atlanta but 51% of the bets are with the Pistons

    • ATS | ATL (road): 10-5, DET (home): 6-6

  • Total (233.5) | ATL: 14-11, DET: 13-11

• Bulls (9-14, 3-9 Away) vs. Hornets (7-17, 5-7 Home)

  • CHI (-3.5, -108), CHA (+3.5, -112): 61% of the money and 62% of the bets are with the Bulls

    • ATS | CHI (road): 4-8, CHA (home): 7-5

  • Total (233.5) | CHI: 11-12, CHA: 8-16

• Jazz (8-15, 2-8 Away) vs. Grizzlies (11-13, 6-6 Home)

  • UTA (+7, -110), MEM (-7, -110): 70% of the money is with the Grizzlies but 53% of the bets are with the Jazz

    • ATS | UTA (road): 3-7, MEM (home): 6-6

  • Total (241.5) | UTA: 14-9, MEM: 8-16

NFL

We’re looking ahead at three home underdogs that bettors are currently backing in Week 15:

• Bills (-1.5, -105) vs. Patriots (+1.5, -115): 58% of the money and 54% of the bets are with New England

  • ATS | BUF: 5-8 (3-3 Away), NE: 9-4 (3-3-1 Home)

• Ravens (-2.5, -115) vs. Bengals (+2.5, -105): 72% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Cincinnati

  • ATS | BAL: 5-8 (2-3 Away), CIN: 6-7 (3-3 Home)

• Packers (-2.5, -110) vs. Broncos (+2.5, -110): 63% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Denver

  • ATS | GB: 6-7 (2-4 Away), DEN: 5-8 (3-3 Home)

Players to Watch

• Cavaliers G Donovan Mitchell (@ Wizards)

  • Points: 30.5 (30.5 - 29, 28, 33, 43, 18), Reb: 4.5 (4.8 - 4, 2, 5, 9, 7), Ast: 5.5 (5.5 - 3, 8, 5, 6, 8)

  • Opponent (WAS - L3) | Points: 128.3 (30th), Reb: 49.1 (30th), Ast: 30.0 (30th)

• Mavericks F Cooper Flagg (vs. Nets)

  • Points: 18.5 (17.3 - 19, 16, 22, 24, 35), Reb: 6.5 (6.3 - 5, 2, 6, 8, 8), Ast: 3.5 (3.3 - 3, 2, 2, 2, 2)

  • Opponent (BKN - W1) | Points: 117.2 (20th), Reb: 43.4 (15th), Ast: 28.5 (26th)

• Bulls G Josh Giddey (@ Hornets)

  • Points: 20.5 (20.3 - 18, 9, 28, 22, 17), Reb: 8.5 (9.5 - 3, 7, 11, 9, 11), Ast: 9.5 (8.9 - 5, 6, 11, 6, 7)

  • Opponent (CHA - L1) | 118.3 (23rd), Reb: 40.3 (3rd), Ast: 28.9 (27th)

*Stats listed in parentheses are season average followed by past 5 games, most recent to least recent.

5. Overtime

Quotable

“You put in all this f-ing work and hope that it pays off. And right now, it’s just for whatever f-ing reason, man, it’s little things. I feel like I’ve always had the answers in years past. And this year, I just can’t find them.” — Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce during the New Heights podcast he co-hosts with his brother Jason Kelce. The star tight end had back-to-back drops in the fourth quarter of the Chiefs’ 20-10 loss to the Texans on Sunday night that all-but ended Kansas City’s postseason hopes.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 7pm: Hawks vs. Pistons on NBA TV

• 8pm: Texas vs. No. 5 UConn [MCBB] on FOX

• 10pm: Timberwolves vs. Warriors on NBA TV