5 NFL Bets to Watch in Black Friday Matchup + College Football Insights

We also look at where bettors have money in 14 games today

In today’s newsletter…

1. Leading Off: How ‘bout them Cowboys

2. Bets to Watch: Bears struggles vs. the slot could mean big WR numbers

3. Game of the Day: Eagles try to shake off last week’s meltdown

4. By the Numbers: College football rivalry games with huge CFP implications

5. Overtime: The NFL quarterback injury that could change the playoff race

1. Leading Off

In the span of five days, the Cowboys beat both participants in last year’s Super Bowl and have transformed themselves into potential playoff contenders. After losing to Arizona on November 3rd to fall to 3-5-1, Dallas looked headed for a second straight season without a postseason appearance. But the Cowboys have won three straight games since and have moved up to ninth in the NFC.

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott held his own in matchups against Super Bowl champions Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, throwing for more yards in those two games than he has against every opponent this season except the Giants in Week 2 (which went to overtime). The Chiefs defense gives up under 200 passing yards per game, and Prescott torched them for 320 yards yesterday. After calling himself out for drops last week, wide receiver CeeDee Lamb had seven catches for 112 yards and a touchdown. And while the Dallas defense bent to Mahomes, it didn’t break — holding Kansas City without a point in the second and third quarters.

Dallas has a huge matchup on Thursday Night Football against Detroit next week (the Lions are currently 3.5-point favorites despite their home loss to the Packers yesterday). A win would put the Cowboys on the cusp of a Wild Card spot, and they’ll almost certainly be favored in three of their final four games. Sportsbooks still don’t believe, though, as 15 teams currently have better odds than Dallas (+225 at FanDuel) to make the 14-team playoff field.

The Packers also made a big statement yesterday, and their win over the Lions moved them up to a tie with the Seahawks for the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +1100. The Rams (+430), Eagles (+600) and Colts (+1000) currently lead the field.

— Abe Rakov

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2. Bets to Watch

Bears Gave Up 3rd-Most Yards Per Game Against Slot Receivers Over Past 5 Weeks

Our 10 Bets to Watch are for our paid subscribers. Head to Sportmoney.com to upgrade today.

3. Game of the Day

Eagles Trying to Right Ship After Meltdown, Bears Looking to Prove They’re Contenders

Nobody expected the Bears to be atop the NFC North at this point of the season, but their record has a lot to do with the schedule — they hadn’t won a marquee game until beating the Steelers last week. Chicago will be seen as a real contender if it can upset Philadelphia on the road today. The Eagles are favored by a touchdown and are coming off a meltdown loss to the rival Cowboys, so all signs point to the team being prepared for this one.

Bears (8-3, 4-2 Away) vs. Eagles (8-3, 4-1 Home)
3pm on Prime Video

The Odds

• Spread: Bears (+7, -110), Eagles (-7, -110)

  • 60% of the money is with Philadelphia but 58% of the bets are with Chicago

  • ATS — CHI (road): 4-2, PHI (home): 3-2

• Moneyline: Bears +290, Eagles -360

• Total (44.5): Over -105, Under -115

  • CHI: 5-6, PHI: 5-6

Head-to-Head

Players to Watch

• Eagles QB Jalen Hurts

  • Passing Yards: 211.5 (289, 135, 183), Passing TDs: 1.5 (1, 0, 1), Rushing Yards: 31.5 (33, 31, 27), Anytime TD: -110 (2, 1, 0)

• Bears QB Caleb Williams

  • Passing Yards: 206.5 (239, 193, 220), Rushing Yards: 20.5 (21, 26, 63)

• Bears WR Rome Odunze

  • Receiving Yards: 49.5 (53, 41, 86)

• Bears WR D.J. Moore

  • Receiving Yards: 35.5 (64, 18, 0)

• Eagles RB Saquon Barkley

  • Rushing Yards: 76.5 (22, 83, 60), Receiving Yards: 19.5 (52, 7, 41), Anytime TD: -130 (0, 0, 0)

• Bears RB D’Andre Swift

  • Rushing Yards: 40.5 (15, 90, 80)

*Stats listed are past 3 games, most recent to least recent

4. By the Numbers

Texas A&M Plays Texas in Austin for First Time Since 2010 With SEC Championship Game on Line

CFB

• No. 13 Utah (-10.5, -110) vs. Kansas (+10.5, -110): 84% of the money and 76% of the bets are with the Utes. ATS — UTA: 8-3, KU: 4-7

• No. 7 Ole Miss (-7.5, +100) vs. Mississippi State (+7.5, -122): 64% of the money and 74% of the bets are with the Rebels. ATS — MIS: 6-5, MST: 8-3

• No. 4 Georgia (-14.5, -102) vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech (+14.5, -120): 75% of the money and 61% of the bets are with the Bulldogs. ATS — UGA: 5-6, GT: 6-5

• No. 3 Texas A&M (-2.5, -110) vs. No. 16 Texas (+2.5, -110): 69% of the money and 75% of the bets are with the Aggies. ATS — A&M: 5-6, UT: 3-8

• No. 2 Indiana (-28.5, -105) vs. Purdue (+28.5, -115): 83% of the money and 78% of the bets are with the Hoosiers. ATS — IND: 6-5, PUR: 5-6

• No. 25 Arizona (-1.5, -110) vs. No. 20 Arizona State (-1.5, -110): 59% of the money and 60% of the bets are with the Sun Devils. ATS — UA: 7-4, ASU: 6-5

NBA

• 76ers (-7.5, -110) vs. Nets (+7.5, -110): 53% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Philadelphia. ATS — PHI (road): 5-2, BKN (home): 4-4

  • Tyrese Maxey — Points: 31.5 (20, 27, 54), Reb: 3.5 (1, 3, 5), Ast: 7.5 (4, 6, 9)

  • Noah Clowney — Points: 16.5 (31, 22, 19)

• Bucks (+7.5, -106) vs. Knicks (-7.5, -114): 63% of the money and 52% of the bets are with New York. ATS — MIL (road): 2-6, NYK (home): 7-2

  • Ryan Rollins — Points: 18.5 (26, 10, 24), Reb: 3.5 (7, 5, 5), Ast: 6.5 (5, 7, 7)

  • Jalen Brunson — Points: 30.5 (33, 27, 33), Ast: 6.5 (3, 3, 11)

• Cavaliers (-5.5, -112) vs. Hawks (+5.5, -108): 71% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Cleveland. ATS — CLE (road): 5-3, ATL (home): 3-4

  • Donovan Mitchell — Points: 28.5 (17, 37, 32), Reb: 4.5 (1, 8, 9), Ast: 5.5 (8, 6, 5)

  • Jalen Johnson — Points: 20.5 (7, 28, 18), Reb: 9.5 (7, 8, 11)

• Kings (+1, -110) vs. Jazz (-1, -110): 66% of the money and 55% of the bets are with Utah. ATS — SAC (road): 5-5, UTA (home): 7-2

  • Lauri Markkanen — Points: 26.5 (17, 20, 19)

  • Zach LaVine — Points: 19.5 (13, 7, 15), Ast: 2.5 (2, 1, 3)

• Suns (+16, -110) vs. Thunder (-16, -110): 58% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Phoenix. ATS — PHX (road): 5-3, OKC (home): 4-5

  • Devin Booker — Points: 24.5 (19, 18, 24), Ast: 6.5 (6, 5, 7)

  • Chet Holmgren — Points: 17.5 (12, 5, 11), Reb: 7.5 (9, 9, 3)

• Spurs (+9, -112) vs. Nuggets (-9, -108): 79% of the money and 53% of the bets are with San Antonio. ATS — SA (road): 4-3, DEN (home): 5-3

  • De’Aaron Fox — Points: 24.5 (37, 26, 26), Ast: 6.5 (8, 3, 9)

  • Nikola Jokic — Points: 30.5 (17, 44, 34), Reb: 12.5 (10, 13, 10), Ast: 10.5 (16, 7, 9)

• Memphis (+6, -106) vs. Clippers (-6, -114): 56% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Los Angeles. ATS — MEM (road): 3-6, LAC (home): 5-3

  • James Harden — Points: 26.5 (29, 19, 55), Ast: 8.5 (9, 6, 7)

  • Zach Edey — Points: 12.5 (21, 2, 12), Reb: 10.5 (15, 1, 15)

• Mavericks (+11, -110) vs. Lakers (-11, -110): 61% of the money and 70% of the bets are with Los Angeles. ATS — DAL (road): 0-5, LAL (home): 7-0

  • Luka Doncic — Points: 33.5 (43, 33, 37), Ast: 8.5 (13, 8, 10)

  • Cooper Flagg — Points: 15.5 (12, 12, 29), Reb: 6.5 (7, 7, 7), Ast: 3.5 (3, 1, 5)

5. Overtime

In the News 

• Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has a fracture in his fibula but isn’t expected to miss playing time. He was a full participant in practice this week for 8-3 Indianapolis, which is one game up on Jacksonville in the AFC South and faces the best defense in the NFL in Houston this week before facing the Jaguars the week after.

• The defending champion Thunder, who are an NBA-best 18-1, are expected to get star guard Jalen Williams back tonight for the first time this season. Williams had wrist surgery in the offseason after averaging 21.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists for Oklahoma City during its title campaign.

• Legendary NFL running back Marshall Faulk, currently an assistant coach at Colorado, is expected to be named the head coach at Southern University, according to ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg. This was Faulk’s first season coaching college football, serving on Deion Sanders’ staff in Boulder.

• The University of Missouri locked up football coach Eliah Drinkwitz with a six-year contract extension that will average $10.75 million annually, ensuring the coach won’t become a part of what will be an active college football coaching carousel. Drinkwitz is dealing with quarterback injuries this season, but is still 7-4 after back-to-back 10+ win seasons.

Quotable

“J-Love's the ultimate competitor. There's not too many quarterbacks that fight like him, through everything he's going through — all the injuries. He just comes in and he works. It's starting to show off. The jump he's making this year is night and day.” — Packers defensive end Micah Parsons on Jordan Love after the quarterback threw two touchdowns on fourth down to lead his team to a win in Detroit.

What to Watch (times ET)

• 12pm: No. 7 Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State [CFB] on ABC

• 12:30pm: No. 5 UConn vs. No. 13 Illinois [MCBB] on FOX

• 2pm: Oklahoma vs. Marquette [MCBB] on NBC

• 3pm: Bears vs. Eagles on Prime Video

• 3:30pm: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech [CFB] on ABC

• 7:30pm: No. 3 Texas A&M vs. No. 16 Texas [CFB] on ABC (or Bucks vs. Knicks on Prime Video)

• 9pm: No. 25 Arizona vs. No. 20 Arizona State [CFB] on FOX

• 10pm: Mavericks vs. Lakers on Prime Video