Top 10 Bets of the Day + NBA Playoffs Odds and a Look at Yankees vs. Diamondbacks

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Checking in on NBA futures

• Top 10 Bets: OKC has won and covered ATS in 10 straight

• Game of the Day: MLB’s top two teams at getting on base face off in New York

• Betting Trends: The over hit in 11 of the past 12 Mavericks games

• Player to Watch: MacKinnon had 19 points in 14 March games for Avalanche

• Overtime: At least 16 NFL teams want to ban the tush push

There’s still a lot to play for in the NBA regular season, but the playoffs are only a couple of weeks away — they start on April 19th.

In the East, the playoff field is just about set: The Celtics and Cavs have both clinched their divisions, and the Knicks, Pacers, Pistons, Bucks, Magic, Hawks, Heat and Bulls are in.

In the West, the Thunder are the only team that has secured a spot in the playoffs, as OKC has already earned the No. 1 seed. The Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers, Warriors, Grizzlies, Timberwolves and Clippers know they’re in the postseason, but still haven’t officially avoided a play-in spot.

Here’s where FanDuel has the playoffs now:

• Eastern Conference Champions: Celtics (-145), Cavaliers (+175), Knicks (+1200), Pacers (+3400)

• Western Conference Champions: Thunder (-150), Nuggets (+650), Lakers (+700), Warriors (+1000), Clippers (+1700), Timberwolves (+1900)

• NBA Champions: Thunder (+175), Celtics (+185), Cavaliers (+500), Nuggets (+1800), Lakers (+1900), Warriors (+2300)

In today’s newsletter, Chris has the top 10 bets to watch across the NBA, MLB and tennis. We also give you a stats comparison for Diamondbacks vs. Yankees, betting trends from all of the day’s NBA games, and a look at the Avalanche’s Nathan MacKinnon vs. Chicago.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. NFL players are apparently excited about the chance to play flag football in the LA Olympics in 2028. Read ESPN’s story.

Boston is 2-5 ATS as Double-Digit Favorites Since the All Star Break

By Chris Farley

Kings vs. Wizards over 231.5 points (-110 consensus)
Over the last few seasons, a battle between the Kings and Wizards typically meant a ton of points; two high-paced programs who can score in drones, even if it didn't always amount to wins. Lately, neither team has the data to support a proficient offense, both ranking in the bottom-six units over their past five games. But their tempos remain above-average (WAS: 4th, SAC: 14th), and last time they battled the shooting was awful and they still totaled 223 points. Washington shot 36% from the field and 28% beyond the arc, and Sacramento wasn't spectacular, either (48% from the field, 30.8% from three). Washington is playing no defense, and Sacramento's offense is due to regress; we expect a typical Kings vs. Wizards output on Wednesday.

Hornets +14.5 (-110 consensus)
It's tough to anticipate regression for any team, let alone a squad as pathetic as the Charlotte Hornets. Was that mean? Let's face it, for as long as we can remember, the Hornets have been bottom-dwellers, but the market may be underestimating them a tiny bit here (scary, I know). The Pacers will be in the playoffs, and over their past five games they've been exceptional (5th in net rating). Overall they don't get enough credit for sneakily hanging around as an Eastern Conference contender, but they also haven't been very consistent, evidenced in their 12th overall net rating this season. Charlotte hasn't covered much lately, but they're playing hard and getting unlucky at the end of games. This is also a very sleepy (aka forgettable) spot for the Pacers.

Knicks +10.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
There was nothing pretty about the Knicks' win over the Sixers one night ago, a contest where neither team seemed that particularly interested. On no rest, the market is understandably underwhelmed by New York's chances on Wednesday, especially with their continual injuries (Jalen Brunson returns April 6th). Karl-Anthony Towns will play after a one-game hiatus, and he's been a big part of New York winning five of their past six. The Cavaliers are the class of the East and no one here is questioning their prowess, but they rank out of the top-10 in net rating and dropped to 18th on defense over their past seven games. Understandably, Cleveland should care less about this game, too. 

Heat +11 (-108 at Bookmaker) 
If the Heat are blown out tonight, they make for a very interesting investment tomorrow, but we'll get to that tomorrow. The Boston Celtics haven't been a good team against the spread as big favorites for a long time now. For some reason, whenever they're double-digit-chalk, Boston is just 2-5 against the spread since the All-Star break. The Heat, meanwhile, are rated the NBA's best team since they battled the Warriors a week ago, resulting in four straight wins. It was against mostly poor competition otherwise, but their feisty defense and clutch shooting recently, under a coach we highly respect like Erik Spoelstra, suggest they'll keep this close against a Boston squad that struggles with motivation. 

Mavericks -4.5 (-110 consensus)
It would be easy to stop trusting the Mavericks. They've been through incredible change in a short amount of time, and yet they're finding a way to stick around in the Western Conference playoff race. Anthony Davis and company underperformed two nights ago, losing outright at home to a lowly Nets' team, and in general they're winning ugly, net-rated a mediocre 16th over their past six games. Still, the market has taken a strong position on Dallas over an Atlanta offense that ranks second in offense over the same span. We know why. Davis is overdue a breakout game, and Atlanta's defense is infamously bad under the rim (23rd in opponent paint points). At home and following an embarrassing loss, we side with the chalk.

Anthony Davis over 22.5 points (+110 at Bovada)
One of the most skilled big men in the world, Davis is averaging 25 points per game this season and has never had a month averaging under what today's total presents. Since joining the Mavericks, his production has gone down, failing to reach 20 points in his past four starts and averaging just 14.3 points per game. But the market sees the opportunity we have today. Against Brooklyn, a team far out of the playoff race, he only played 28 minutes and took 10 shots. Dallas may be trying to conserve the big-man, but the play-in tournament is far from a guarantee and Davis will face a bottom-12 defense, with even worse marks in opponent shooting percentage (48.2%, 29th). This is an A+ opportunity for "the brow."

Thunder -13 (-110 at BetOnline)
It's not hard to say positive things about the Oklahoma City Thunder. In truth, one wonders why we even talk about this team anymore. There is nothing to question. They've won and covered against the spread in 10 straight games, and as double-digit favorites they're covered in seven of their past 10 since the All-Star break. Next week feels like the right time to slow down and preserve some energy before the playoffs, since they've long wrapped up the West's #1 seed. Still, anticipating when that'll happen feels fruitless. Plus, Detroit has covered in just three of their past nine, and they very rarely beat good teams not-named the Cavs (just look back at their wins, will ya?). We'll keep rolling with OKC.

MLB

Pirates vs. Rays first five innings under 3.5 runs (-109 at Bookmaker)
It hasn't been easy sledding early for the Pittsburgh Pirates, although few expected anything different. In his first start, Paul Skenes shut down the Marlins in Miami until the fifth inning, when the home team let loose and put two runs on the board. The famed 2024 NL Rookie of the Year has been fantastic since he turned pro last year, earning a 1.96 ERA in 133 innings on the mound. The Rays, who have scored 19 runs in three games, are due regression after abusing a few poor throwers, too. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot gets the nod after a sterling beginning to his season, striking out 12 against Colorado last weekend. A slow start here is predictable, which we won't fade just to fade. 

Dodgers -1.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Right now everything is going the Dodgers' way. Dustin May made his anticipated return last night, resulting in another dominant win last night against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Braves are in struggle-city, battling through competition without their star, Ronald Acuna Jr., and so far putting up only nine runs and a poor 4.88 team ERA. Of course things could rapidly turn around, we're only 6-7 games in for any given team, but there's little evidence that it'll take place tonight. The Dodgers never-ending roster of talent calls upon Blake Snell on Wednesday, a guy who's kept his ERA in threes, his left-on-base rate over 70%, and his home-run allowance run under one per nine innings for four straight seasons.

Tennis: WTA Charleston

Kudermetova vs. Shnaider over 20.5 games (+105 at Bovada)
It's been a rough go for Diana Shnaider this season. Since the Australian Open, she's just 3-5 overall, typically booted out of events immediately, and she's just not bringing the same crisp, relentless form that we saw in 2024. Last year she won the Paris and Canadian Open, and she had formidable finishes in major tournaments. Now ranked 14th, she's in danger of falling even lower in the WTA, and her matchup on Wednesday is no cake-walk. Polina Kudermetova is a feisty 21-year old Russian who's climbed to 59th in the world following more than a few respectable outings the past few months, including wins over names like Alexandrova, Kalinina, Kasatkina, and Krueger. While Shnaider finds her form, we expect a prolonged battle.

Early Top-2 Hitting Teams in Baseball Face Off After Scoring 12 in Game 1 of the Series

Diamondbacks (3-2, 1-0 Away) vs. Yankees (3-1, 3-1 Home)
7:05pm on Prime

• Spread: Yankees -1.5 (+164), Diamondbacks +1.5 (-200)

• Moneyline: Yankees -126, Diamondbacks +108

• Total (8): Over/Under -110

NBA: LaVine’s P+R+A vs. Mediocre Defenses, Nesmith’s First Quarter Points

Knicks (48-27, 22-15 Away) vs. Cavaliers (60-15, 32-5 Home)

• Evan Mobley has gone over 26.5 points + rebounds in 7 straight home games (31.6 average)

• Sam Merrill had at least 4 rebounds + assists in 7 straight games (5.9 average)

Hornets (19-56, 7-30 Away) vs. Pacers (44-31, 25-10 Home)

• Aaron Nesmith scored 3+ first quarter points in 8 of his past 9 games (4.4 average)

• Josh Green has at least 1 steal in 6 straight road games (1.7 average)

Kings (36-39, 17-20 Away) vs. Wizards (16-59, 7-30 Home)

• DeMar DeRozan scored 20+ points in 8 straight road games (25.6 average)

• Zach LaVine has gone over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists in 17 of his past 18 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (35.3 average)

Heat (34-41, 15-22 Away) vs. Celtics (56-19, 24-12 Home)

• Derrick White grabbed at least 10 rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (13.4 average)

• Jayson Tatum had over 35 points + rebounds in 6 of his past 7 home games (43.6 average)

Jazz (16-60, 7-30 Away) vs. Rockets (49-27, 27-11 Home)

• Jalen Green has 4+ assists in 5 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (6.6 average)

• Fred VanVleet has gone over 2.5 rebounds in 5 straight home games (5.0 average)

Hawks (36-39, 17-20 Away) vs. Mavericks (37-39, 20-17 Home)

• The over hit in 11 of the past 12 Mavericks games

• Daniel Gafford has 10+ points in 16 of his past 18 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for points allowed (14.7 average)

Spurs (31-44, 11-24 Away) vs. Nuggets (47-29, 25-13 Home)

• Stephon Castle grabbed 4+ rebounds in 4 of his past 5 road games road (6.6 average)

• Chris Paul combined for over 8.5 rebounds + assists in 8 of his past 9 games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (11.6 average)

Pistons (42-33, 21-17 Away) vs. Thunder (63-12, 33-5 Home)

• Jalen Williams had at least 24 points + assists in 11 of his past 12 games (28.6 average)

• Jalen Duren has gone over 0.5 first quarter assists in 10 of his past 11 road games (1.2 average)

Pelicans (21-54, 7-30 Away) vs. Clippers (43-32, 25-11 Home)

• James Harden has gone over 7.5 assists in 15 of his past 18 home games (10.2 average)

• Kawhi Leonard combined for at least 26 points + assists in 8 of his past 9 games (29.9 average)

MacKinnon Leads NHL in Points, Has 1 Goal and 2 Assists in 3 Games Against Chicago This Season

Name: Nathan MacKinnon
Team: Colorado Avalanche
Position: Center
Today’s Matchup: @ Chicago Blackhawks
Season Stats: 30 goals, 80 assists, 299 shots, +27

Past 5 Games

• vs Calgary: 1 assist, 3 shots

• vs. St. Louis: 1 goal, 4 shots

• vs. Los Angeles: 1 assist, 2 shots

• vs. Detroit: 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 shot

• @ Montreal: 6 shots

Potential Bets

• 0.5 goals: Over -105, Under -140

• 3.5 shots: Over -140, Under +108

• 1.5 points: Over +108, Under -138

In the News 

• The tush push lives to fight on another day after 16 teams supported banning it and the issue was postponed until the next owners’ meeting.

• Maryland lured Buzz Williams away from Texas A&M to be its next head basketball coach.

• The NFL voted to change its rulebook, and now Tom Brady no longer has the most champions on his own — he’s tied with Otto Graham.

• The takeaways from the women’s Elite 8.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Liverpool vs. Everton on Peacock

• 7pm: Knicks vs. Cavaliers on ESPN (followed by Pistons vs. Thunder at 9:30pm)

• 7:05pm: Diamondbacks vs. Yankees on Prime

• 9:30pm: Avalanche vs. Blackhawks on TNT

Photo of the Day