The Top 10 Bets to Watch Today + Women's Final Four Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NBA stars are scoring this week

• Top 10 Bets: Warriors are 4-8 to the under on zero days rest

• Game of the Day: A look at both women’s Final Four matchups

• Betting Trends: Zubac has 15+ points in 15 of his past 16 games

• Player to Watch: Imanaga has given up 1 run in first 11 innings

• Overtime: How the Braves can make history

The NBA is closing out its regular season with a lot of points. Last night, there were eight 30+ point scorers across the six games, and three of those came in losing efforts. The 30+ threshold was reached 18 times in the past three nights, including 61 points from Nikola Jokic (in a loss), 52 from Stephen Curry, 39 from Devin Booker (loss), 37 and 35 from Giannis Antetokounmpo, 36 from Shaedon Sharpe and 35 from Tyler Herro (loss).

In today’s newsletter, Jack gives you his top 10 bets of the day. We also have head-to-head stats for both women’s final four games, a betting trend in each of today’s 10 NBA matchups, and a look at Shota Imanaga’s start to the season as he gets ready to take on the 7-0 Padres.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. A programming note: Starting tomorrow, on weekdays Sportmoney will come out at 10am ET and the weekend editions will hit your inboxes at 11:30am ET (barring late line movement that causes a delay). Remember, to get the full edition of Sportmoney seven days per week you need to be a paid subscriber — it’s just $2.99/month, and we’ll give you your first month free.

Jokic Scored Over His Points Total in 7 Straight Games

By Craig Williams

Celtics over 118.5 points alternate (-175 at bet365)
On paper, the “motivation” theory suggests the Suns will — or should — enter the contest with urgency and playoff-level intensity. However, they’re seemingly battling with the No. 10 seed Sacramento Kings to avoid the play-in rounds. The Suns have lost four straight, and while they still have the opportunity to overtake the faltering Kings, they just can’t get locked in. Making matters worse is the absence of Kevin Durant. Outscoring opponents is the Suns' only path to victory at the moment given the league-worst defensive rating they’ve produced over their skid. The Celtics may have their playoff berth locked up, but we don’t anticipate the lifeless and undermanned Suns demonstrating the pride necessary to slow down the Celtics in Boston.

Devin Booker over 26.5 points (-130 at FanDuel)
Booker is a Phoenix Sun, through and through, and a two-time All-NBA selection. Thus, we expect him to continue delivering in spite of the dysfunction around him. Not only is Kevin Durant (ankle) out for the contest, but Bradley Beal is nursing a hamstring ailment as well. He’s listed as day-to-day, but has missed his past eight games. Booker attempted 32 shots in his last game, the second most of the season, and we expect another night of overwhelming volume for Booker against a Celtics squad that will likely give extra minutes to backups.

Nikola Jokic over 27.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
The Western Conference race remains tight, and both the Warriors and Nuggets are fighting to stay out of the play-in rounds. We especially like Jokic, who is coming off of a 60-point triple-double, and who has dominated the Warriors in recent seasons. Size is not a strength of the Warriors, and Jokic frequently punishes them for it. He’s gone way over in seven straight games, averaging 37.7 points over that span.

Warriors under 116.5 points (-115 at ESPNBET)
The Warriors are coming off of a taxing road tilt in Los Angeles against the playoff-bound Lakers, and are in the second leg of a back-to-back against the Nuggets. The Warriors are 4-8 to the under on zero days rest and have remained under in their past three back-to-back finales. Meanwhile, the Nuggets own a 9-5 record when they have the rest advantage, so on paper, they have some factors working in their favor — factors that also include a strong 22-16 road record. Finally, consider that the Warriors’ Stephen Curry struggles — if he plays at all — in the second leg of back-to-backs.

Nuggets moneyline (-120 at FanDuel)
We’re sticking with the Nuggets vs. Warriors for one more play, and this time we’re siding with the Nuggets to win outright. The same reasoning from the Warriors’ under wager applies here for the Nuggets moneyline. The Warriors won against the Lakers in Los Angeles in what was a playoff-esque atmosphere with competitive back-and-forth action essentially to the final whistle. We’re buying the third-place Nuggets’ rest advantage in this spot, especially since their standing in the Western Conference — only two games up on the seventh-place Timberwolves — requires them to bring their own playoff-level intensity.

Hornets +10.5 (-110 at Caesars)
In a strict moneyline sense, the Kings would appear to be the play over the Hornets in spite of their recent poor form. The Hornets are 2-8 straight-up and against the spread over their past 10 with the league’s third-worst offensive rating and seventh-worst defensive rating over that span. The issue is the Kings just dropped a game to the Wizards, who are statistically worse than the Hornets in the aforementioned metrics. In theory, the Kings, who lead the Suns by a game for the final play-in spot, should be playing with focus and urgency. That simply hasn’t been the case as they’ve dropped three consecutive games and six of eight against the spread.

Women’s NCAA Tournament

Paige Bueckers over 26.5 points (-112 at FanDuel)
Bueckers is playing like a woman on a mission to (help) carry UConn to the national title. She’s averaging 26.1 points since the conference tournament began, a span of seven games. Of course, that scoring average is under the number we need for to win the wager, but that’s because she only needed to score 11 points in their 103-34 opening round victory. She’s averaging 35 points over her past three games on 59.1% shooting from the field and a staggering 61.9% mark from three. UCLA will certainly present a stiff challenge, but Bueckers has been dominant against increasingly challenging competition up to this point.

MLB

Blue Jays vs. Mets 1st inning over 0.5 runs (-106 at FanDuel)
We’re shifting our focus from the stats and metrics to consider the intangible challenges that will be present for the Mets’ home opener. Tylor Megill will be the one responsible for channeling the extra “juice” that comes with pitching in front of what will likely be a rabid capacity crowd. The same applies for Kevin Gausman, though arguably to a lesser degree. Excess adrenaline may be great for throwing harder, but it can be a detriment to pitching. A couple of missed spots, a little trouble finding the strike zone, a flat two-seamer or change-up — there are a lot of adrenaline-fueled ways the Mets and/or the Blue Jays can plate a run in the first frame.

Marlins under 1.5 runs first 3 innings (-166 at DraftKings)
Nobody is running away with a division seven games into the season, but the last thing the Braves expected was to be 0-7 entering their home opener. Spencer Schwellenbach hasn’t earned the label or role of “stopper”, but he’s proven himself capable in big spots — 7 IP, 1 ER vs. the Mets in a pressure start last September for example — and he’ll have the opportunity to prove it once again. He limited the Marlins to three runs over seven frames in his lone start against them, and we’re banking on him to do his part to get the Braves in the win column for the first time in 2025.

Yankees under 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-166 at DraftKings)
The Yankees completed their series against the Diamondbacks at roughly 10:09 p.m. Thursday night before making the trip to Pittsburgh for their first road series of the season. The flight is under two hours, so we’re not suggesting a strenuous journey, but the 4:12 pm start time ensures a tight and less-than-ideal turnaround. We’ve all heard the cliche of baseball players being “creatures of habit”. Players follow routines, even on the road, and the logistical challenges facing the Yankees on Friday will throw a lot of routines off track, and could be the source of a slow start for the Yanks.

Women’s Final Four Features Familiar Foes in Game 1, #2 Seed UConn a Big Favorite in Game 2

#1 Texas (35-3) vs. #1 South Carolina (34-3)
7pm on ESPN

• Spread: South Carolina -4.5 (-120), Texas +4.5 (-102)

• Moneyline: South Carolina -230, Texas +184

• Total (124.5): Over/Under -110

Head to Head

• These teams have played three times already this season, with each winning at home and South Carolina making a statement in the SEC Championship game with a 64-45 victory. No team scored above 67 points in the matchups, and the average total was 118 points.

#2 UConn (35-3) vs. #1 UCLA (34-2)
9:30pm on ESPN

• Spread: UConn -7.5 (-106), UCLA +7.5 (-114)

• Moneyline: UConn -385, UCLA +290

• Total (135.5): Over -106, Under -114

NBA: Zubac’s Points Run, Bridges Rebounds at Home

Kings (36-40, 17-21 Away) vs. Hornets (19-57, 12-26 Home): Miles Bridges has 6+ rebounds in 16 straight games at home (8.9 average)

Jazz (16-61, 7-31 Away) vs. Pacers (45-31, 26-10 Home): Brice Sensabaugh has gone over 1.5 three pointers in 8 of his past 9 road games (3.0 average)

Suns (35-41, 12-26 Away) vs. Celtics (56-20, 24-13 Home): Derrick White has at least 1 block in 5 straight home games (2.0 blocks/game average).

Pistons (42-34, 21-18 Away) vs. Raptors (28-49, 17-22 Home): Tim Hardaway Jr. scored over 2.5 first quarter points in 5 of his past 6 road games (5.5 average)

Trail Blazers (34-43, 14-25 Away) vs. Bulls (34-42, 15-23 Home): Josh Giddey has 2+ first quarter rebounds in 10 straight games (3.3 average)

Thunder (64-12, 29-7 Away) vs. Rockets (50-27, 28-11 Home): Luguentz Dort has combined for at least 11 points + assists in 6 straight games (14.7 average)

Cavaliers (61-15, 28-10 Away) vs. Spurs (32-44, 19-19 Home): Darius Garland has gone over 3.5 rebounds in 9 straight games (5.0 average)

Nuggets (47-30 22-16 Away) vs. Warriors (45-31, 23-14 Home): Jimmy Butler has 6+ assists in 6 straight home games (8.7 average)

Pelicans (21-55, 7-31 Away) vs. Lakers (46-30, 29-10 Home): Yves Missi has at least 8 rebounds in 5 straight games (10.4 average)

Mavericks (38-39, 17-22 Away) vs. Clippers (44-32, 26-11 Home): Ivica Zubac has 15+ points in 15 of his past 16 games (20.2 average)

Cubs’ Imanaga Gave Up Only 1 Run in First 2 Starts (11 Innings)

Name: Shota Imanaga
Team: Chicago Cubs
Position: Pitcher
Today’s Matchup: vs. San Diego Padres
Season Stats: 1-0 (2 starts, 11 innings), 0.82 ERA, 6 Ks, 0.82 WHIP

First Two Starts

• @ Diamondbacks: 7 IP, 3 hits, 1 ER, 4 Ks, 2 BBs

• vs. Dodgers: 4 IP, 0 hits, 0 ER, 2 Ks, 4 BBs

Potential Bets

• 18.5 outs: Over +140, Under -188

• 4.5 strikeouts: Over -140, Under +110

In the News 

• The St. Petersburg City Council decided to pay $22.5 million to fix the Rays’ Tropicana Field so the team can return to the city.

• Geno Smith got $66.5 million in guaranteed money from the Raiders.

• The story behind how the torpedo bat was made.

• If the Braves make the playoffs, they’ll make history.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7pm: Texas vs. South Carolina on ESPN in the first women’s Final Four game

• 7:45pm: Dodgers vs. Phillies on Apple TV+

• 8pm: If you miss football, a UFL matchup between Birmingham and Michigan is on FOX

• 9:30pm: UConn vs. UCLA in the Final Four nightcap on ESPN

Photo of the Day