NCAA Championship Game Bets to Watch + MLB Insights and NBA Trends

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Where the bettors are for the NCAA title game

• Top 10 Bets: A look at each half in the NCAA championship

• Game of the Day: #1 defense takes on #3 offense for NCAA title

• Betting Trends: DeRozan has averaged 25.8 points over past 11 road games

• Player to Watch: St. Louis’s Walker has at least 1 hit in all but 1 game this season

• Overtime: How did Florida get to the championship with zero top-100 recruits?

After a blowout win for UConn in the women’s national championship game, all signs are pointing to a closer men’s title matchup. Florida (-1.5) is the slight favorite over Houston. Here’s where the betting public is the morning before the big matchup:

• Spread (UF -1.5): 73% of the money and 68% of the bets are with UF

• Moneyline (UF -115): 64% of the money and 57% of the bets are with the Gators

• Total (140.5): 57% of the money is with the under, but 55% of the bets are with the over

If you’re really confident in one of these two teams, there’s an interesting opportunity to double down with more profitable odds: Walter Clayton Jr. is +100 to win Final Four MVP, while L.J. Cryer is +160.

In today’s newsletter, Chris gives you his top 10 bets to watch. We also have betting trends from the NBA (we’ll switch this up soon with MLB on some days when there are more stats to make trends more relevant), a look at the numbers in the NCAA title game, and the Cardinals’ Jordan Walker vs. Carmen Mlodzinski, who is making his seventh career start.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Take a few minutes for one last read about who has the advantages in the NCAA title game.

Houston Allows Slightly More Points in 2nd Half, Florida Scores 45.2

By Chris Farley

Houston vs. Florida 1st half under 66.5 points (-110 at Bovada)
The Houston defense, in case you haven't heard, is no joke. In the title game they'll face an offense that produces 85.3 points per game, the third most prolific group in the country, but we still trust the Cougars to slow them down. Florida is unfamiliar with the Cougars and how they play ball (the last time they battled was 1973), which has proven to be a big issue for other teams this year. The Duke vs. Houston game barely got over 60 points in the first half, with Sampson's talented roster, which prides itself on its endurance and tenacity, slowing down the contest tremendously. Florida might catch their groove eventually, but we're looking for a methodical, physical start.

Houston vs. Florida 2nd half over 74.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)
While we expect a very slow beginning to the National Championship game, we don't think it'll last. First, Houston, who's been at the top of the long-ball mountain all season (39.9%, 1st), finally found their groove from beyond the arc on Saturday, shooting 45.5% (10-22) against the Blue Devils. Second, although Houston has the best defense in the country in both halves, they understandably allow more points in the second (31.2), which is the same 20 minutes where Florida's offense is at its best (45.2, 3rd). And finally, Florida's fast tempo (59th on KenPom) combined with their lousy second half defense (36.9 points allowed per game, 115th) mean an 80+ second half is likely.

Houston moneyline (-102 at FanDuel)
If there's one thing we can all say with certainty, it's that Kelvin Sampson's team has no quit. Down the entire contest and facing a seven-point deficit with just over one minute remaining, the Cougars found a way, showing unbelievable defensive effort down the stretch. A statistic that's hard to believe, Houston held KenPom's #1 offense to just one field goal in the final 10 minutes and 31 seconds, a single three-pointer from Cooper Flagg. Florida has been battle-tested, too, close to losing three out of their five tournament victories so far, but their lack of experience and shaky defense (they permitted 69.8 points per game this season, ranked 88th), along with Houston's all-world coaching, has us siding with the Cougars one more time.

NBA

Kings +7 (-110 at FanDuel)
The Kings are barely holding onto their spot outside the play-in tournament, but Monday presents a very good chance for them to solidify their position. Detroit has been very good since the start of March, net-rated 8th with the fourth best defense, but there's obvious regression taking place. With no chance to fall into the play-in tournament and with a likely series against the Knicks in the first round, a team that's been injured and inconsistent, there's little reason for the Pistons to care about this matchup. And over their past four games, they're not playing starters as long (Cunningham has averaged 33 minutes per game) and rate just 21st overall. Advantage, Sacramento.

76ers vs. Heat under 214 points (-110 consensus)
This matchup has historically been low-scoring, no matter who's out there on the court. This season they're averaging just 205.6 combined points per game in three contests, and last season it wasn't much different (212 per game). Over their past seven games, a crusade that's cemented Miami's spot in the play-in tournament, the Heat are one of the association's best programs, net-rated 2nd overall. That's mostly because of their defense, a group that ranks 4th over the same span. The 76ers have been hurt and pedestrian for a long time, the NBA's 26th-best offense in the same time-frame, and Miami's ice-cold pace (28th) means this should be a slow-moving, forgettable, low-scoring affair.

Quentin Grimes over 23.5 points (-118 at WilliamHill and FanDuel)
Philadelphia's season hopes have been long gone, a lost episode that's ended with more to question than look forward to, but don't tell that to Quentin Grimes. The 76ers' backup shooting guard has become a key scoring cog in Maxey and Embiid's absence, leading Philly in nine of their past 15 games. And even against above-average defenses, his output hasn't slowed down: he scored 28 on Minnesota, 26 on New York, 28 on OKC, and 46 in an OT thriller against Houston. In their last battle against the Heat, he only got up 15 points, but we expect positive regression. The 24 year old has nothing to lose and the Heat have earned their shot at the playoffs; expect a solid outing from the former Houston star.

MLB

Yankees' team total over 4.5 runs (-111 at FanDuel)
The Yankees' white hot run of constant home runs came to an end on Sunday, losing in extra innings to the lowly Pirates and finally getting through a whole contest without one hit over the fence. That kind of brief, typical regression can be expected, but it doesn't mean we expect it to continue. On Monday, New York faces one of the most vulnerable defenses to big slugs through nine games. Although Detroit's defense has been mostly good (top-5 in opponent batting average and hits per game), they lose it against power-hitters, permitting 1.63 home runs per game (26th), and they're in the bottom half of MLB in opponent runs, doubles, triples, and RBIs. The pinstripes should score at will, again.

Orioles moneyline (+112 at BetOnline)
The Orioles' sterling start to their 2024 season hasn't repeated itself this year, just 4-6 overall heading into their next series with a few surprising losses to the Royals and Red Sox. Pitching and defense has been Baltimore's achilles heel for a long time now, something the Diamondbacks cannot relate to. On Monday the O's will battle Zac Gallen, one of the most consistently solid throwers in baseball, but Arizona’s bullpen and defense hasn't held up. Over their past four contests they've permitted 22 total runs, and the O's, who rank top-10 in most offensive categories, are due for an explosion. We like Baltimore to bounce back, despite their recent poor form.

Tennis: ATP Monte Carlo (Tuesday Matches)

Arthur Fils (-195 at BetOnline)
Tallon Griekspoor had a great run at the Marrakech Open, making it all the way to the finals before collapsing against Italian Luciano Darderi. The Dutchman looked very formidable, earning quick two-set wins over veterans Mattia Bellucci and Kamil Majchrzak leading into the final match, scoring a 77% or greater first serve winning percentage throughout the event. He's also had some great victories this year, in what could have been the culmination of a great early season if he could have won at Marrakech, but it didn't come to be. Now, less than 48 hours later, he's commissioned to take on 15th-ranked Arthur Fils, who's well rested (his last match was March 27th) and will play in front of home fans at Monte Carlo. This is Fils or pass.

Nicholas Jarry (+270 at BetOnline)
Grigor Dimitrov enters the match as a decent favorite against Jarry, and for good reason. He's currently in better form, stumbling only against the best of the best — with formidable runs at the Miami Open and Indian Wells. The 18th ranked Bulgarian packs a real punch in his serve and brings a sterling backhand along with it. Jarry, who hasn't been in top form, may have a unique opportunity here, though. The 29-year-old Chilean was a quick out in Bucharest and overall hasn't looked great in 2025, winning one of his past six matches dating back to the Australian Open. His advantage is that he's had far more experience on clay this year, proceeding into late rounds in Argentina and the Rio Open, and he's dying for a better result. 

Gators’ 3rd-Ranked Offense a Slight Favorite (-1.5) Over Houston’s Top-Ranked Defense

#1 Florida (35-4) vs. #1 Houston (35-4)
8:50pm on CBS

• Spread: Florida -1.5 (-104), Houston +1.5 (-118)

• Moneyline: Florida -118, Houston -102

• Total (140.5): Over -115, Under -105

Betting Trends

• L.J. Cryer had at least 1 steal in 7 straight games (1.3 average) and 5+ rebounds + assists in 5 straight games (6.6 average)

• Walter Clayton Jr. has gone over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists in 9 of his past 10 games (30.9 average)

• Milos Uzan had at least 6 rebounds + assists in 6 of his past 7 games (7.4 average)

NBA: Sabonis’s 1st Quarter Scoring, 76ers to the Over

Kings (38-40, 19-21 Away) vs. Pistons (43-35, 21-17 Home)

• Ausar Thompson scored 13+ points in 6 straight games (15.3 average)

• DeMar DeRozan has gone over 19.5 points in 11 straight road games (25.8 average)

• Domantas Sabonis scored at least 6 first quarter points in 5 straight road games (11.2 average) and has at least 1 steal in 5 of his past 6 road games (1.3 average)

• Cade Cunningham doesn’t have a block in 8 straight games vs. top 10 defenses for blocks allowed

• Zach LaVine has stayed under 4 assists in 8 straight road games (2.2 average)

76ers (23-55, 11-28 Away) vs. Heat (35-43, 18-21 Home)

• Spread (MIA -14.5): Heat 36-40-2, 76ers 27-50-1

  • 52% of the money and 50% of the bets are with the Heat

• Moneyline (MIA -1200): 56% of the money and 59% of the bets are with the Heat

• Total (214): Heat 40-38, 76ers 46-32

  • 73% of the money and 64% of the bets are with the over

Walker Has 1+ Hit in All But 1 Game This Season, 1+ Strikeout in 5 of Past 6

Name: Jordan Walker
Team: Cardinals
Position: Right Fielder
Today’s Matchup: vs. Pirates (Carmen Mlodzinski: 0-1, 9.82 ERA)
Season Stats: .333 BA, 1 HR, 2 RBI, .878 OPS

Past 5 Games

• @ Red Sox: 1-4, 1 BB

• @ Red Sox: 2-4, 1 run, 1 BB, 2 SO

• @ Red Sox: 0-4, 2 SO

• vs. Angels: 1-4, 1 run, 1 BB, 1 SO

• vs. Angels: 2-5, 1 run, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 SO

Trends

• Jordan Walker has gone over 0.5 bases in 11 of his past 12 games (1.8 average)

• He has at least 1 single in 10 of his past 11 games (1.1 average)

In the News 

• A look at how Alex Ovechkin became the NHL’s top goal scorer.

• The MLB commissioner said that torpedo bats are “absolutely good for baseball.” 

• Florida has zero top-100 recruits on its roster.

• Southampton has officially been relegated from the Premier League, setting the record for the earliest a club has known its fate.

• Yankees catcher Austin Wells started an Instagram account to rate breakfast burritos in opposing clubhouses.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:45pm: Bologna vs. Napoli in Serie A action on Paramount+

• 7pm: Kings vs. Pistons on NBA TV

• 8:50pm: Florida vs. Houston on CBS for the NCAA title

Photo of the Day