Masters Bets to Watch + Luka's Return to Dallas (Points Total is 30.5) and Early MLB Trends

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Champions League odds update

• Top 10 Bets: A look at the Masters

• Game of the Day: Doncic scored just 19 in first game against Mavericks

• Betting Trends: The over hit in 8 of the past 9 Cardinals games

• Player to Watch: Mets’ Megill looks to keep strong start to season going

• Overtime: More on the Nuggets shocking firing of Michael Malone

We’re mid-way through a Champions League week, which means there are both opportunities and traps in the futures market. Here’s where FanDuel has the competition as of this morning:

• Barcelona (+250)

• PSG (+280)

• Arsenal (+320)

• Inter Milan (+550)

• Bayern Munich (+1100)

• Real Madrid (+1600)

• Aston Villa (+2000)

• Dortmund (+2500)

PSG (-270) is favored to beat Aston Villa today, while Barcelona (-300) is expected to take care of Dortmund. Arsenal shocked Real Madrid 3-0 yesterday, and Inter took care of Bayern Munich 2-1 on the road.

In today’s newsletter, Jack gives you 10 bets to watch for the Masters and MLB. We also have an in-depth look at Doncic’s return to Dallas, betting trends for seven MLB games, and a profile of Mets starter Tylor Megill, who has given up just one run in 10.1 innings this season.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Read about how the Cowboys’ free agency strategy has given them more flexibility in the upcoming NFL Draft.

Morikawa Finished in the Top 10 (5th, T10, T3) in Past 3 Masters

By Jack Dougherty

Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+150 at FanDuel)
Morikawa is a top-10 machine, especially at Augusta National. Ever since he learned he doesn’t have to hit draws off the tee at this golf course, the American has finished solo fifth, T10 and T3 in three Masters starts. Recent form is also crucial leading up to the Masters, and there aren’t many players hitting the ball better than Morikawa this season. He ranks first on the PGA Tour this year in strokes gained on approach, strokes gained from tee to green and proximity to hole, which has led to three top-10 finishes in five starts. Morikawa is tough to trust with an outright bet due to his recent Sunday struggles, but a top-10 finish is more than doable. 

Corey Conners top-20 finish (+160 at FanDuel)
Speaking of recent form, Conners is absolutely on fire heading into the first major championship of the year. The Canadian has finished T18, T8, T6 and solo third in his past four starts, gaining strokes from off the tee, on approach and around the green in all four. The putter has always held Conners back, but he switched to a new flat stick earlier this season and immediately gained strokes on the green in four of his next five starts. Conners has three top-20 finishes in his past five Masters starts, and he’s never been playing better entering the tournament. 

Will Zalatoris top-20 finish (+160 at FanDuel)
Course history is more important at Augusta National than any other venue on the PGA Tour, and Zalatoris clearly loves this place. The American has finished runner-up, T6 and T9 in three career starts at the Masters. Zalatoris fares so well here because he’s an exceptional iron player, and that form is starting to return this season. He ranks 20th on Tour this year in strokes gained on approach, 10th in proximity to hole and fifth in approaches from 150-175 yards. The putter has failed him in multiple tournaments this season, but Zalatoris has gained a combined 9.88 true strokes from putting in his three starts at Augusta. 

Phil Mickelson top senior (-175 at DraftKings)
Mickelson should be a bigger favorite in this market considering he’s playing some of his best golf in a long time. The 54-year-old has two top-six finishes in his past three LIV Golf starts, and he’s gained strokes in all four major categories this season. He also finished runner-up at the Masters just two years ago and hasn’t missed the cut at Augusta National since 2016. Mickelson heads to Augusta with his eyes set on a fourth green jacket, while the other five seniors in the field would be thrilled to make the cut.

Byeong Hun An top Korean (+200 at DraftKings)
There are only three South Koreans in the Masters field this year, and An is the biggest underdog despite coming in with by far the best form of the bunch. An finished T16 at the Valspar Championship and T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month, as his tee-to-green game has heated up at the right time. Sungjae Im has one top-50 finish in his last six starts, and he’s been one of the worst iron players on the PGA Tour this season. Tom Kim has one top-40 finish in his last six starts and has been bleeding strokes with his short game all year. An is playing with much more confidence than his fellow countrymen, and he finished T16 at the Masters last season.

Tournament matchup: Robert MacIntyre > Joaquin Niemann (+120 at DraftKings)
Niemann is a popular bet this week after winning two of the past four LIV Golf tournaments, but he’s still in the “we’ll believe it when we see it” camp when it comes to major championships. The Chilean has just one top-20 finish in 17 career major appearances. MacIntyre, on the other hand, has finished T12 and T23 in two Masters starts and notched a top-10 finish at the PGA Championship last year. He’s also in immaculate form with four top-11 finishes in his past five worldwide starts, and he ranks fifth on Tour this season in strokes gained from tee to green. 

MLB

Braves team total over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (+105 at DraftKings)
Taijuan Walker isn’t fooling us after one good performance. The Phillies starter went 6.0 scoreless innings in his first appearance of 2025, but that came against a Rockies lineup that couldn’t hit a Little Leaguer early in the season. This is a much different story against the Braves, who are starting to come to life with 17 runs and an .829 OPS over their past four games. Let’s not forget Walker gave up at least three runs in 12 of his 15 starts last season and had a 7.41 ERA and 1.824 WHIP in 17.0 spring training innings this year. 

Grant Holmes under 5.5 strikeouts (-152 at FanDuel)
The Phillies made it a focal point in the offseason to improve their chase rate and limit strikeouts in 2025, and they’re executing that game plan so far. Philadelphia has the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (16.2%) and the lowest overall chase rate in MLB (24.2%). Holmes rotates between the starting rotation and the bullpen, and he rarely goes more than 4.0 innings in his appearances. This line is set too high.

Jack Flaherty 7+ strikeouts (+115 at FanDuel)
You might not think this is a strong matchup for Flaherty against the big, bad Yankees, but New York has struggled with swings and misses to start the year. The Yankees have the fifth-highest strikeout rate against righties this season (26.1%). They also have the third-highest whiff rate (28.9%) and second-lowest chase contact rate (26.0%) in MLB. In 55 combined plate appearances against Flaherty, current Yankees hitters have a whopping 43.6% strikeout rate. Flaherty went from 83 pitches in his first start of the season to 95 in his second, so he should be in store for a full workload against a Yankees lineup he’s dominated in the past. 

Jake Irvin under 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Irvin is off to a rough start in 2025. The Nationals pitcher has given up 14 hits and six earned runs while striking out only five batters in 10.0 innings of work, and his advanced metrics are even worse. Irvin ranks in the first percentile in xERA (11.56), the 12th percentile in strikeout rate (11.4%) and the 20th percentile in chase rate (21.6%). In 62 combined plate appearances against Irvin, current Dodgers hitters are batting .333 with a 14.5 percent K rate. Even if Irvin gets through the first few innings with limited damage, this isn’t a lineup you can pick apart. 

Doncic Returns to Dallas with Playoff Seeding on the Line for New and Old Teams

Luka Doncic’s first game back in Dallas is not only personally meaningful, there’s still a lot to play for in the regular season for both the Lakers and the Mavericks. LA nearly has the 3-seed locked up, but needs another win or two. Dallas almost has Phoenix boxed out of the play-in tournament, and can also catch Sacramento for the 9-seed.

Lakers (48-31, 18-21 Away) vs. Mavericks (38-41, 21-17 Home)
7:30pm on ESPN

• Spread: Lakers -3.5 (-108), Mavericks +3.5 (-112)

  • LAL: 43-33-2, DAL: 36-40-3

• Moneyline: Lakers -158, Mavericks +134

• Total (228.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • LAL: 39-39-0, DAL: 43-35-1

Betting Trends

• Klay Thompson has combined for at least 14 points + assists in 7 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for assists allowed (21.3 average)

• Austin Reaves dished out at least 1 first quarter assist in 17 of his past 19 road games (2.3 average)

• Max Christie has 2+ first quarter points in 17 of his past 18 home games (4.0 average)

• Jaxson Hayes has gone over 5.5 rebounds + assists in 7 straight games vs. bottom 10 defenses for rebounds allowed (9.6 average)

• Daniel Gafford had 5+ rebounds in 15 of his past 16 games (9.1 average)

MLB: Wilson’s Hit Streak for the Athletics, Cardinals Overs

Cardinals (4-6, 0-4 Away) vs. Pirates (4-7, 2-2 Home)

• The over hit in 8 of the past 9 Cardinals games

• Masyn Winn has gone over 0.5 bases in 10 straight road games (2.8 average)

Marlins (5-6, 1-3 Away) vs. Mets (8-3, 5-0 Home)

• Francisco Lindor has at least 1 hit in 7 straight home games (1.6 average)

• Juan Soto went over 0.5 bases in his past 7 home games (1.9 average)

Yankees (6-5, 2-3 Away) vs. Tigers (7-4, 5-0 Home)

• Zach McKinstry has at least 1 hit in 5 straight home games (1.4 average)

• Aaron Judge hasn’t hit a home run in 8 of his past 9 road games (0.1 average)

Rangers (8-3, 2-2 Away) vs. Cubs (8-5, 3-3 Home)

• Shota Imanaga hasn’t given up over 2.5 earned runs in 7 straight home games (0.9 average)

• Marcus Semien has stayed under 1.5 bases in 12 of his past 13 games (0.7 average)

Padres (9-2, 2-2 Away) vs. Athletics (4-7, 0-4 Home)

• Lawrence Butler has at least 1 single in 5 straight games (1.4 average)

• Jacob Wilson has at least 1 hit in 13 straight games (1.5 average)

Blue Jays (6-5, 1-3 Away) vs. Red Sox (6-5, 3-1 Home)

• Tanner Houck has given up 2+ walks in 5 straight home games (3.2 average)

• Trevor Story has gone over 0.5 bases in 6 straight home games (2.3 average)

Dodgers (9-3, 3-3 Away) vs. Nationals (4-6, 4-3 Home)

• Mookie Betts has at least 1 hit in 12 of his past 13 road games (1.5 average)

• Will Smith has gone over 0.5 hits in 10 of his past 11 games (1.1 average)

Megill Gave Up Just 1 Run in 10.1 Innings to Start Season, Faces Unfamiliar Marlins Tonight

Name: Tylor Megill
Team: Mets
Position: Starting Pitcher
Today’s Matchup: vs. Marlins
Season Stats: 2-0 (10.1 innings), 0.87 ERA, 10 K, 4 BB, 0.87 WHIP

Matchup

• Megill has only faced three current Marlins players in his career: Nick Fortes, Otto Lopez and Matt Mervis. In nine at bats, he’s given up three hits (.333 average), two of which were home runs (Fortes, Mervis), five RBIs and one walk, while striking out one.

First 2 Starts

• vs. Blue Jays: 5.1 innings, 2 hits, 0 runs, 4 Ks, 3 BBs

• @ Astros: 5.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 run, 6 Ks, 1 BB

In the News 

• More on the Nuggets’ shocking firing of coach Michael Malone just before the NBA playoffs begin.

• The Florida-Houston matchup was the most-watched men’s NCAA championship game since 2019.

• Texas freshman Tre Johnson, a potential top-5 pick, declared for the NBA Draft.

• LIV golfers will be back at the Masters.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1:10pm: Yankees vs. Tigers on Prime Video

• 3pm: PSG vs. Aston Villa in Champions League action on Paramount+

• 7:15pm: Phillies vs. Braves on MLB Network (or Barcelona vs. Dortmund)

• 7:30pm: Lakers vs. Mavericks on ESPN (followed by Nuggets vs. Kings at 10pm)

Photo of the Day