Can the Undermanned Grizzlies Stop Donovan Mitchell?

In case you somehow missed it, John Calipari is leaving Kentucky to go to Arkansas. While it’s seismic news, it didn’t do much to either team’s odds to win a title next year: MGM has Kentucky with the sixth-best odds at +2000 and Arkansas is at +4000.

In today’s issue, Jason is down on Devin Booker and feeling good about SGA, Jack digs into interesting strikeout data, and Sam thinks the stars are going to have a real impact in today’s Champions League matches.

Thanks for reading!

Abe

• The Dallas Mavericks are on a four-game winning streak, and the offense has been dominant over the last couple of games. Meanwhile, the Miami Heat will be without Duncan Robinson and have Tyler Herro and Terry Rozier listed as questionable. The offense scored just 106.4 points per 100 possessions against the Hawks last night and managed just 12.2% of offensive rebounds after turning the ball over 15.5% of the time. That’s because the Heat played without those three guys, Herro, Rozier, and Robinson. If all of those guys are out again, you can expect a Dallas Mavericks rout tonight. Dallas Mavericks MONEYLINE (-175 at ESPNBet)

• Giannis Antetokounmpo has been diagnosed with a left calf strain. It’s unlikely he’ll play in tonight’s game against the Magic. Although the Bucks defeated the Celtics last night, the offense hasn’t shot the ball very well over the last handful of games. Milwaukee has shot an effective field goal percentage of no better than 54.7% in four of their last five games. Orlando Magic MONEYLINE (-112 at FanDuel)

• The Hawks have lost three consecutive games after scoring no more than 111 points in any of them. They’ve taken poor shots and have turned the ball over at a super high rate. However, the defense has kept them in games outside the 142-110 defeat to the Nuggets on Saturday. Charlotte Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 220.5 (-115 at MGM)

• Last night, the Suns fell to the Clippers at home, 105-92. Devin Booker was a non-factor in that game. In 40 minutes, he went 1-for-11 from the field and added just five assists with three rebounds. Tonight should be another low-scoring game between these two teams. Booker hasn’t hit at least eight assists in two straight and has only nailed this line in 38% of games this season. Devin Booker UNDER 7.5 Assists (-108 at Caesars)

• When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is in the lineup, the Oklahoma City Thunder are so much better as a whole. Throughout the season, Gilgeous-Alexander has added at least six assists in 60% of games. Tonight, he’ll take on a Spurs defense that ranks 25th in assists allowed to point guards. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 5.5 Assists (+112 at Caesars)

• Over the last two games, Donovan Mitchell has shot just 40% from the field while averaging 17 points per game. However, he still saw 38 minutes in both games and will face a Memphis team that is filled with two-way players and guys with 10-day contracts. Ultimately, Mitchell has averaged 26.4 points per game this season. Donovan Mitchell OVER 20.5 Points (-110 at MGM)

• In three games against the Raptors, Mikal Bridges has scored 18.7 points per game. This year, he’s averaged 20 points per game. Bridges’ matchup tonight against the Raptors is a good one. Toronto ranks 29th in points allowed to small forwards this season, and Bridges has scored at least 17 points in 66% of games this season. As long as the Nets aren’t blown out, you can expect 30+ minutes from Bridges. The more time on the court, the more shots he’ll take. Mikal Bridges OVER 16.5 Points (+110 at DraftKings)

• After a scorching start to the season, Mookie Betts has cooled off a bit with just four hits (all singles) in his last 28 plate appearances. We expect the Los Angeles Dodgers star to get back to his old ways this afternoon with a great matchup on deck. In six career at-bats against Minnesota Twins starter Chris Paddack, Betts has five hits (two singles, two doubles, one home run). It’s a tiny sample size, sure, but we’re trusting one of best hitters in baseball against a pitcher he clearly sees well. Mookie Betts over 1.5 total bases (-115 FanDuel)

• Here’s a fun one for today’s early slate. The top three hitters in the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup are a combined 9-50 with 17 strikeouts against Aaron Nola. Nola’s strikeout numbers are down to start the season, but we like him to bounce back in this matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies’ top three hitters all have a strikeout rate higher than 27%, and Cardinals starter Lance Lynn has the 27th-best whiff rate among qualified pitchers. Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals: Each starting pitcher 1+ strikeout in the first inning - Yes (-105 FanDuel)

• Patrick Corbin has given up 16 hits and eight earned runs in two starts this season, and opposing hitters are batting .372 against him with a 1.021 OPS. Current San Francisco Giants hitters are also batting .303 against him in 116 plate appearances, per Baseball Savant. On the other side, Giants starter Jordan Hicks has been lights out this season with only one earned run and a .186 batting average allowed. San Francisco Giants first five innings -0.5 (-140 FanDuel)

• Hunter Greene is an above-average strikeout artist with a 31.7% whiff rate in 2024, but he hasn’t gone over 7.5 Ks in either of his two starts this year. He recorded eight or more strikeouts just 10 times in his 22 starts last season, and that was with a 30.5% strikeout rate. Current Milwaukee Brewers hitters have struck out just 24% of the time against Greene in 25 plate appearances. Hunter Greene under 7.5 Ks (-122 FanDuel)

• The Atlanta Braves led MLB last season with 5.75 runs per game, and they’ve upped that number to 6.9 this year. Atlanta leads the league in batting average (.306), OPS (.880) and wOBAcon (.446). This lineup also has a ton of experience against New York Mets starter Jose Quintana and touched him up for nine hits and five runs in one matchup last season. Atlanta Braves team total over 5.5 (+112 FanDuel)

• Seth Lugo is off to a hot start this season with just one earned run in his first two starts, but he’s managed only seven total strikeouts in those games. He also had the pleasure of facing the Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox, two of the three worst teams in MLB in terms of runs per game and OPS. Now he has to face a loaded Houston Astros lineup that has the highest expected batting average and the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. In 30 plate appearances against Lugo, current Astros hitters are batting .423 with a mere 10% strikeout rate. Seth Lugo under 3.5 Ks (+124 FanDuel)

• Going out on a limb for this last one: Jake Cronenworth has just one home run in 52 at-bats this year, but he has the 14th-highest expected slugging percentage and the 18th-highest barrel rate in the league. That suggests he’s been a bit unlucky in the power department. Kyle Hendricks has already given up three home runs in two starts, and the Chicago Cubs bullpen has surrendered seven dingers. Jake Cronenworth to hit a home run (+680 FanDuel)

• Champions League Atletico’s player of the season has been Antoine Griezmann, and the Frenchman comes into this game in great form. In 26 La Liga games he’s scored 11 goals and assisted a further six more, but in the Champions League he’s really proved his class - with six goals in eight games. With Atletico playing in front of a sold-out home crowd they’ll create a fierce atmosphere and it’s one in which Griezmann should thrive, so we’re likely to see the 33-year old have some part in a goal. Antoine Griezmann to score or assist (-130 at FanDuel) 

• If you look purely at this season then you’ll know that Atletico games have frequently been high-scoring. They’ve changed their style under Diego Simeone and haven’t played with such a regressive, defense-first mentality as we’ve seen previously. That said, this isn’t a league game, this is a hugely important first leg of a Champions League semifinal, so we’re likely to see Simeone go back to basics and ensure his team keep things tight. A low scoring game also benefits Dortmund. With the famous “Yellow Wall” behind them at home in the second leg, they’ll want to get through this game unscathed and in a position to take the tie when the teams meet next time. Under 2.5 goals (-128 at FanDuel) 

• There aren’t many players who would slot into any team on the planet, but Kylian Mbappe fits into that bracket. He’s had another huge season for PSG with 39 goals across all competitions, 24 in Ligue 1, six in the Champions League and nine more in other cups. Barcelona have averaged more than one goal allowed per game domestically and are likely to concede on the road in Paris today. While the Parisians have a lot of talent, there’s nobody with the goalscoring ability of Mbappe. Given he is averaging around one goal per game this season, he seems set to net. Kylian Mbappe to score (-115 at FanDuel) 

• Today really feels like a must-win for PSG. They’re on the easier side of the draw, meaning the victor of this tie faces either Atletico Madrid or Dortmund in the semifinal. With Kylian Mbappe set to leave the club in the summer, it could be now or never to win the Champions League. PSG know they can’t afford to go to the second leg in Spain without a lead, and given Luis Enrique’s team haven’t lost a game in any competition since November, they have to be favorites here, especially in front of their home crowd. This is far from a vintage Barcelona side as evidenced by them being eight points behind Real Madrid in La Liga. PSG to win (-105 at FanDuel)

• They may be the away team, but look for Derby to win at Wycombe today. Derby are second in League One by a single point and absolutely need to win here in order to continue their march toward automatic promotion. Wycombe have improved as the season has progressed, but they’re still down in 15th and have picked up just one point in their last two games. Derby, who have won three of their last five, should win again. Derby to win (-120 at FanDuel)

• Rotherham come into their game already relegated, meaning their players are already planning their vacations this summer. That certainly isn’t the case for West Brom, who are fifth in the Championship table and still have a chance of reaching the Premier League. In front of a home crowd, we will almost certainly see West Brom win, and given that Rotherham have conceded 82 goals in just 41 games, it’ll likely be by a big margin. Brandon Thomas-Asante will lead the line for West Brom and has already got 10 goals on the season, there’s no better game for him to score than this. West Brom to win and Brandon Thomas-Asante to score (+122 at FanDuel)

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