Braves Firepower, Mets Struggles are a Recipe for Runs

Even though there are only five games on the NBA schedule tonight, there’s a lot that’s still to be decided. Chris is watching OG Anunoby’s return from injury and the Warriors’ hot streak. On the MLB slate, Malcolm is looking for firepower when the Mets visit Atlanta and is watching Tarik Skubal to see if he keeps racking up Ks.

I’ll be watching the Masters all day and hoping for some LIV-on-PGA drama.

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Abe

• The Knicks have real momentum coming off two straight wins in tough spots (at MIL and at CHI) and they're healthy. They're also  motivated since they could still slip in the East standings. Boston has no need to win anything since they clinched the #1 seed and they already listed a long injury list, indicating many starters could sit. This one has Knicks blowout written all over, hence the immediate line movement. Knicks -2.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

• OG Anunoby came alive in his third game back from injury at Chicago on Tuesday, nailing 4 out of 6 threes and scoring 24 points in a win. New York is a different team when Anunoby is aggressive, and a breakout performance like that will only provide more momentum in another big battle tonight. New York is expected to win against a demotivated Boston squad, so we project more opportunity than usual for the dynamic guard. OG Anunoby over 13.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

• The Pistons have failed to eclipse 103 points in 12 of their last 14 games. The Bulls' defense has regressed lately, but much of that is because Alex Caruso, their leader and defensive spark plug, has missed some time because of an ankle injury. He's expected to play tonight. Without Cade Cunningham and against a Chicago team that runs at a 28th ranked pace the last two weeks, Detroit hitting triple digits is unlikely. Pistons Team Total proj. under 104.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

• Since Malik Monk went down, Sacramento's offense is struggling; 21st in offensive efficiency in their last 4 games. De'Aaron Fox has taken the brunt of the burden, averaging 37 minutes and a season high 23.6 shot attempts per game in March. Last time he opposed the Pels' defense, he scored just 3 points in 26 minutes. The Kings need a boost and Fox is the man to bring it; he should attack early and often tonight. DeAaron Fox over 27.5 points (-108 at FanDuel)

• The Warriors are on a heater, winners of 8 of their last 10 contests, and they still have a chance to eclipse Sacramento and even Phoenix for a better seed. Their defense is top-5 in the same 10-game span, and their tempo has regressed (13th). Portland remains without their best scorer, Anfernee Simons, and they've averaged just 100.8 ppg over the last 30 days. Blazers Team Total proj. under 103.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

• Look at any of Zion's games in March or April and you'll see an obvious pattern in his point totals. Williamson is simply a more aggressive scorer against better competition (29 ppg against top-10 net rated teams the last two months). At Sacramento and highly motivated to avoid the play-in tournament, we expect the Pels to use Zion early and often against a small Kings' roster. Zion Williamson over 26.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)

• This battle profiles as a physical clash of two Pacific division teams not far from one another in the standings, and that means we'll see plenty of defense and plenty of missed buckets. Domantas Sabonis has played below average versus New Orleans this season (10 rpg), but he's overdue for regression. It helps that he's averaged over 15 rpg the last two months. Expect another big game at the rim for the Kings' center. Domantas Sabonis over 14.5 rebounds (-102 at FanDuel)

• Orioles pitcher Grayson Rodriguez enters today’s game with an impressive streak, not allowing a first-inning run in his last 18 starts and boasting a 2.19 ERA with just three earned runs over 12.1 innings this season. Despite facing a challenge in Tyler O'Neill, a formidable opponent batting third in the lineup, Boston’s Garrett Whitlock has been stellar with a 0.96 era and 13 strikeouts to start the season. He can get by the top of Baltimore's lineup that’s been a little up and down to start the season. Orioles at Red Sox 1st Inning Total Runs 0 (-120 at FanDuel)

• Facing the Braves, the Mets’ offensive struggles, with a .218 team batting average and only 38 runs scored, starkly contrasts Atlanta’s offensive powerhouse, boasting a .306 average and 69 runs. Atlanta’s dynamic offense, coupled with power hitters like Marcell Ozuna and a solid team slugging percentage, positions them strongly. Despite New York’s pitching efforts, Atlanta’s consistent performance and batting prowess are worth watching. Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+114 at FanDuel)

• We are doubling down on some Mets and Braves action here. With the Braves demonstrating strong hitting, highlighted by Jarred Kelenic's .462 average and Marcell Ozuna's five homers, they're set to challenge Mets starter Jose Quintana, whose 5.94 FIP suggests potential struggles ahead. Additionally, Braves starter Allan Winans, despite minor league success, brings uncertainties to the mound with a 5.29 ERA from last year, making him vulnerable against a Mets lineup showing at least some signs of resurgence. Given these pitching vulnerabilities and the offensive firepower on both sides, there should be a lot of runs today. New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Over 9.5 runs (-105 at FanDuel)

• Jared Jones has impressed with 17 strikeouts and just nine hits allowed over 11 innings, showcasing his ability as a strikeout machine. Ranger Suárez, with only seven hits and five earned runs given up in 11 innings against tough lineups (including the Braves), bolsters Philly’s pitching strength. However, the Phillies’ struggle to score, with 20 runs in their last six games, combined with robust bullpens on both ends, suggests a low scoring affair. Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 runs (-120 at FanDuel)

• Anticipated poor weather conditions, including rain and winds over 15 mph, set the stage for a challenging offensive game. The Twins, sitting at 30th in both batting average and home runs, face an uphill battle. With Tarik Skubal’s commanding presence on the mound and Pablo Lopez’s strong start to the season, runs will be scarce. All of this points to a slow start. Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers First Inning Total Runs 0 (-175 at FanDuel)

• Tarik Skubal is poised to get strikeouts today, especially considering Minnesota’s 25.2% strikeout rate against left-hand pitchers in 2023, ranking fifth-highest in MLB. Skubal, with 102 strikeouts in 80.1 innings last year, started this season with six and nine strikeouts against the White Sox and A’s respectively. He has the ability to exploit Minnesota’s susceptibility to strikeouts. Tarik Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+124 at FanDuel)

• In the Athletics vs. Rangers game, J.P. Sears and Jon Gray both show troubling stats that hint at a high-scoring first five innings. Sears, with a low 19.4% GB percentage and high 48.6% hard hit rate, alongside a poor whiff rate on all pitches, suggests vulnerability. Similarly, Gray's struggles, evidenced by a 48.3% hard hit rate and unfavorable matchups against LHBs (.333 wOBA, .353 xwOBA), further point to potential offensive success. Considering both pitchers' struggles and the Rangers' strong performance against southpaws (149 wRC+), look for runs in first five innings. Oakland Athletics @ Texas Rangers F5 Over 5.5 Runs (-102 at FanDuel)

• Elly De La Cruz is off to a quick start, and there’s no reason to think he’s going to slow down. With 12 hits in 11 games, De La Cruz has been over 0.5 hits in 10 of those games (91%). He’s coming off a two-hit game, including a home run, and has accumulated six hits in his last three games, indicating the young star is finding his rhythm. Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 hits (-160 at FanDuel)

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