Nuggets (-7) Look to Cement Playoff Spot + MLB Trends and the Pitcher with 16 Strikeouts in First 2 Starts

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NHL playoffs odds update

• Top 10 Bets: Clippers rank 3rd in offensive and defensive efficiency over their past 10

• Game of the Day: Battle of postseason-bound interim head coaches

• Betting Trends: Astros have lost 5 straight ATS at home

• Player to Watch: Bubic has 16 strikeouts, 3 walks over first 2 starts for Royals

• Overtime: The NFL fired three officials and sent them down to college football

The NHL regular season ends next week, and there’s still a lot at stake both in terms of who will make the playoffs and seeding in each conference. If you’re interested in an opportunity to look ahead, here is where FanDuel has the odds for each conference champion:

• Eastern Conference: Panthers (+300), Hurricanes (+350), Capitals (+410), Lightning (+480), Maple Leafs (+650), Senators (+1300)

• Western Conference: Stars (+310), Golden Knights (+380), Avalanche (+480), Oilers and Jets (+500), Kings (+1000)

The Stars (+600) are the slight favorite to hoist the Stanley Cup, followed by the defending champion Panthers (+650), Golden Knights (+750), and Hurricanes and Oilers (+850).

In today’s newsletter, Craig has his top-10 bets to watch across the NBA and MLB. We also give you a preview of the huge Grizzlies vs. Nuggets matchup, a betting trend from eight MLB games, and a look at Royals’ starter Kris Bubic’s hot start to the season.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. At 65, Fred Couples became the second-oldest player to shoot under par in a round at the Masters (Tom Watston is the oldest).

Knicks have Lost to Cavs by 20.6 per Game, but Cleveland is Likely Resting Starters Tonight

By Craig Williams

Knicks win first quarter + Knicks win game (-175 at FanDuel)
One thing that sports betting teaches us is that it’s important to listen to what the sportsbooks tell us. In this case, the Knicks are laying double-figures against the Cavs with a moneyline price of -500 or shorter. All of this in spite of their 0-3 record and 20.6-point margin of defeat. The Cavs have clinched the best record in the Eastern Conference, while the Knicks are still fighting for the No. 3 seed. Both teams are coming off of a back-to-back, but the Knicks, in theory, have more incentive to put a tally in their win column.

Hornets under 98.5 points (-145 at DraftKings)
The Hornets are averaging 104 points over their past five games — an 0-5 stretch straight-up and 1-4 stretch against the spread. They dropped their most recent road game while only scoring 96 points and have the league’s worst offensive rating over their five-game losing streak. The Celtics, meanwhile, still rank top 10 in defensive efficiency, and it’s not unreasonable to expect them to be more locked in entering the postseason.

Hawks -11.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
This position is more about the 76ers playing out the string and aiming to keep their lottery odds intact — from an organizational standpoint, at least. The 76ers won their previous contest, which in this particular context, heightens the urgency to add a tally in the loss column. The Hawks, meanwhile, are firmly in the play-in tournament, and theoretically have reason to stay — or get into — their best possible form leading into the postseason. Their 5-4-1 record against the spread over their past 10 is modest, but it’s far better than the 76ers’ 2-8 mark.

Zach LaVine 3+ made threes (-156 at FanDuel)
We’re buying LaVine’s recent dominance from three-point range. He’s hitting 5.8 treys per game over his past four at a 62.2% clip. That’s a streak that’s too hot to ignore. The Kings will be playing to stay in rhythm ahead of their No. 9 vs. 10 matchup in the play-in, and we like LaVine to stay in form even against a tough opponent.

Clippers -6 (-115 at bet365)
We like the form the Clippers are in, winning 8 of 10 and six in a row. They’ve also gone 4-2 against the spread over that span. They rank third in both offensive and defensive efficiency over their past 10 games and seem as if they’re peaking at the right time. The Kings clinched a play-in berth, but they’re only 4-6 over the past 10 contests, including a mediocre 5-5 against the number. As well as the Clippers have played of late, they still have work to do to secure their playoff seeding.

MLB

Giants +0.5 first 5 innings (-160 at FanDuel)
We’re siding with the Giants and Robbie Ray against Marcus Stroman for the Yankees — at least early. Ray has fared well against current Yankees hitters — except for Aaron Judge. Meanwhile, Stroman has struggled thus far, posting a 7.27 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through two starts. Today’s conditions are chilly and humid, so we won’t be surprised if both lineups have to work a bit harder to plate runs, and thus allowing the Giants to remain close through five frames.

Yankees vs. Giants under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-128 at FanDuel)
First of all, we’re considering the weather forecast in The Bronx, which calls for temperatures in the mid-40s and high humidity. In theory, that will suppress offense for both teams. Robbie Ray has quality numbers against most current Yankees hitters; and we believe the weather will benefit Marcus Stroman, who relies on pitching to contact. Ultimately, it’s reasonable to suggest both teams will need to work hard to scratch across runs.

Mets vs. Athletics under 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-128 at FanDuel)
The Mets, despite their second-place standing in the National League East, have not hit their stride offensively. That’s good news for southpaw JP Sears, who is off to a solid start — 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP through 13 innings. He catches the Mets at a good time — modest offensive production and their first West Coast trip. Meanwhile, Griffin Canning has been effective if not efficient. The latter observation isn’t necessarily a deterrent to our under position in this case, however.

Juan Soto 2+ total bases (-105 at FanDuel)
Like the Mets’ offense overall, Soto is not locked into a groove quite yet. But he’s still doing Soto things, such as his .404 on-base percentage. And if we forgive his 0 for 4 from Wednesday afternoon, we can focus on his .348 batting average — with three doubles — over the previous six games. Plus, he’s working the whole field in recent contests, which bodes well against the lefty Sears. The season is still in its infancy, but so far, Sutter Health Park is trending towards hitter friendly, a factor that works in Soto’s favor.

Orioles 3 or less runs conceded after 6 innings (-240 at Caesars)
We’re looking for the Orioles’ Tomoyuki Sugano to do his part for a team that needs to get into the win column after losing two straight and posting a 3-7 record over their past 10 contests. We’re not banking on any standard of performance in particular — strikeouts, outs recorded, etc. — but he’s been effective without being dominant, and we’re leaning into his veteran savvy playing a role in a quality team effort.

Underdog Grizzlies (+7) Look to Steal a Win at Denver to Help Avoid Play-In

In a game featuring two interim head coaches headed to the postseason, Memphis could really use an upset. There are just two games separating the 3-8 seeds in the West, with the Nuggets one game behind the Lakers for third and one game up on the Timberwolves for eighth. Memphis has the same winning percentage as Golden State for the final non-play-in spot.

Grizzlies (47-33, 22-18 Away) vs. Nuggets (48-32, 25-15 Home)
9pm

• Spread: Nuggets -7 (-110), Grizzlies +7 (+110)

  • DEN: 36-43-1, MEM: 39-38-3

  • 74% of the money and 57% of the bets are with the Nuggets

• Moneyline: Nuggets -290, Grizzlies +235

• Total (242.5): Over -110, Under -110

  • DEN: 47-32-1, MEM: 45-35-0

Betting Trends

• Peyton Watson has 2+ blocks in 6 straight home games (3.2 average)

• Vince Williams Jr. has gone over 1.5 first quarter points in 6 straight games (3.3 average)

• Ja Morant has at least 1 first quarter rebound in 6 straight road games (1.5 average)

• Russell Westbrook has made at least 1 three pointer in 18 of his past 19 home games (1.9 average)

• Santi Aldama has gone over 0.5 turnovers in 7 straight games vs. top 10 defenses for turnovers forced (1.9 average)

MLB: Donovan’s Singles for the Cardinals, Suzuki’s Road Hits for the Cubs

• Royals (7-6, 1-2 Away) vs. Guardians (6-6, 3-0 Home): Michael Massey has gone over 0.5 bases in 7 of his past 8 road games (2.1 average)

• Giants (9-3, 5-1 Away) vs. Yankees (7-5, 4-2 Home): Paul Goldschmidt has at least 1 hit in 6 straight games (2.2 average)

• Blue Jays (8-6, 3-4 Away) vs. Orioles (5-8, 1-2 Home): Andrés Giménez has gone over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 15 of his past 17 games (2.1 average)

• Angels (8-4, 6-3 Away) vs. Astros (5-7, 2-4 Home): The Astros have lost 5 straight against the spread at home

• Tigers (7-5, 2-4 Away) vs. Twins (4-9, 1-2 Home): Zach McKinstry has at least 1 base in 7 straight games (2.1 average)

• Phillies (8-4, 3-3 Away) vs. Cardinals (5-7, 4-2 Home): Brendan Donovan has at least 1 single in 6 straight games (1.5 average)

• Brewers (7-6, 2-4 Away) vs. Diamondbacks (7-6, 4-3 Home): Corbin Carroll has at least 1 hit in 5 straight home games (1.6 average)

• Mets (8-4, 3-3 Away) vs. Athletics (5-8, 1-5 Home): JP Sears has stayed under 2 walks allowed in 8 of his past 9 home games (0.7 average)

• Cubs (9-6, 5-2 Away) vs. Dodgers (10-4, 6-0 Home): Seiya Suzuki has at least 1 hit in 16 of his past 17 road games (1.5 average)

Bubic Struck Out 8 Batters in Each of First 2 Starts to Begin the Season

Name: Kris Bubic
Team: Royals
Position: Starting Pitcher
Today’s Matchup: @ Guardians
Season Stats: 2-0 (12.2 innings), 0 earned runs, 0.00 ERA, 16 K, 3 BB, 0.79 WHIP

Matchup

• Current Guardians have hit .296 against Bubic in his career over 27 at bats. Bubic has given up two doubles, 3 RBI and 3 walks, while earning five strike outs. Jose Ramirez has the most success against the Royals’ starter, as he’s 4-6 with a double, 3 RBI and a walk.

First 2 Starts

• 4/6 vs. Orioles: 6.2 innings, 0 earned runs, 8 K, 1 BB

• 3/31 @ Brewers: 6.0 innings, 0 earned runs, 8 K, 2 BB

In the News 

• More on the Nuggets’ firing of Michael Malone.

• The NFL fired three officials and sent them down to college football.

• Two more American-owned soccer teams are headed to the Premier League next season.

• MLS could switch its schedule to align with the rest of the soccer world in 2027.

• Ken Griffey Jr. is a credentialed photographer at this year’s Masters.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day: Masters coverage on ESPN+ (ESPN beginning at 3pm)

• 7pm: Penguins vs. Devils on NHL Network

• 8:10pm: Tigers vs. Twins on Apple TV+

• 10:30pm: Rockets vs. Lakers on NBA TV

Photo of the Day