Will Man U Start Slow? Can the Marlins Finally Get a Home Win?

Only 14 players were under par after the first two rounds at the Masters, including a 3-way tie for first at 6-under between No. 1 and the favorite Scottie Scheffler, Max Homa, and LIVer Bryson DeChambeau. I’ll be watching to see if Collin Morikawa can make up any ground today. He’s one of only two players with both rounds under par (Homa being the other), and has finished in the top-10 in the past two Masters. Tiger, who made the cut for the 24th-straight time at the Masters, is 7 shots back of the lead and tees off at 12:45pm ET.

In today’s newsletter, we’re starting off with soccer - Sam is covering five leagues across four countries today. He’s not expecting a fast start for Man U and Bournemouth, but if you want goals, FC Dallas and the Sounders might be a match to watch. In baseball, Malcolm doubts the Braves will help the Marlins out of their slump (0-8 at home!), and is looking to see if White Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet’s strikeout run is a fluke or not.

A reminder that there’s no NBA today as the league resets for the regular season finale tomorrow - where playoff seeding is still up for grabs. That’s a good reason to read us again tomorrow.

Abe

• This hasn’t been a vintage season from Brighton and they’ve failed to hit the heights of last year. However, they’re still 10^th in the Premier League table and their 43 points is over double Burnley’s 19, with the Clarets stuck firmly in the relegation zone. Brighton have picked up just a point in their past three games and desperately need a ‘get right’ match. This is their chance for one. Burnley have struggled all season, as they can’t compete with the financial might of the majority of the teams above them and their playing staff aren’t at the levels required to stay in this league. They’ve improved over recent months, but still only have one win in their last 14 in the Premier League. Despite Brighton’s struggles, they have the better team, better manager and a subpar opponent today. Brighton to win (+105 at DraftKings)

• In our hunt for the most interesting soccer bets we’re dropping down to League One in England with Cambridge vs Charlton. People had high hopes for Charlton this season, but they started poorly. A managerial change saw Nathan Jones come in and he’s turned the club around, with Charlton unbeaten in their past 12 games. Cambridge have lost three of their last five games, failing to score in those defeats, while getting smashed 4-0 and 6-0 by Reading and Lincoln, respectively. With Charlton in great form they come in with an opportunity to continue their impressive resurgence under Jones. Charlton to win (+132 at BetRivers)

• Manchester United’s biggest problem this season has been scoring goals. They’ve scored 45 goals through 31 games, the lowest total in the top half of the Premier League and the same number of goals as Luton - who are in the relegation zone. We’ve also heard Erik ten Hag talk about needing to sign a new striker in the summer. That paints a picture of how poor they’ve been in front of goal. They face a Bournemouth team who have looked very good at times this season. One thing that’s been barely spoken about is how tight Bournemouth have been at home, especially early in games. An incredible 68.7% of their Premier League games at the Vitality have been goalless at halftime. Manchester United and Bournemouth 0-0 at halftime (+300 at Bet365)

• Leverkusen might be winning the Bundesliga, but Stuttgart’s current third-place position feels just as impressive (the team finished last season in 16^th). They come into today level on points with Bayern Munich and equal on 19 wins for the campaign. One of the biggest reasons behind their great season has been Serhou Guirassy. The Guinean has been incredible in front of goal, with 24 goals in 22 Bundesliga games. He’s scored at least one goal in each of his past five games and has scored in nine of his past 12 appearances at home. Serhou Guirassy to score (-125 at Bet365)

• A captivating 3-3 draw against Man City in the Champions League keeps Real Madrid’s European hopes alive and they already have one hand on the La Liga trophy, coming into the weekend eight points ahead of Barcelona. Mallorca have one win in their last three and are just six points ahead of Cadiz, who sit in a relegation spot. Real have won 23 of 30 games, losing just once, and have a real talent in grinding out wins even when they’re not at their best. That’s in part down to a great defense that’s allowed just 20 goals in 30 games. Real Madrid to win (-130 at BetMGM)

• It’s now or never for Barcelona. The La Liga title is starting to feel out of reach, and the Catalans cannot afford to drop another point. They’ve won their past three and are averaging over two goals per game in the league this season. Barca’s biggest issue has been at the back, where they’ve allowed 34 goals. It’s still the fifth fewest in the league, but it has cost them games. Fortunately for Barcelona, Cadiz have scored just 21 goals all season, the lowest in the league. Barcelona to win (-115 at DraftKings)

• Our final pick of the day sees us at the bottom of the MLS Western Conference, with FC Dallas hosting the Seattle Sounders. They’ve just two wins between them so far but these two teams should see some goalmouth action tonight. It’s not the biggest sample size, but all three of FC Dallas’ home games this season have hit the Over 2.5 goal mark, as have two of their three games away from the Toyota Stadium. Seattle’s road games have also seen goals, with two of three hitting the Over. Over 2.5 goals (+125 at DraftKings)

• Steven Kwan has three hits in five at bats against Clarke Schmidt, and that .600 batting average is his best against any Yankees pitcher. Schmidt’s troubles with his sinker and a notably low strikeout rate may give Kwan further opportunities. As they face off again, Kwan’s demonstrated ability to consistently connect against Schmidt makes this the game’s most intriguing matchup. Kwan Over 1.5 total bases (-120 at Bet365)  

• Garrett Crochet stands out for the struggling White Sox and is set to face Nick Lodolo and the Reds today. Lodolo, who hasn't pitched yet in 2024 but maintained a sub-3.70 ERA in 2022, is known for his strikeouts but needs to control his walks. The White Sox have a 31% strikeout rate against lefties and have key hitters injured. Despite the Reds' modest offensive stats, Chicago's bullpen, including a dynamic Michael Kopech, could be pivotal if Crochet's gets off to a strong start. White Sox and Reds Under 8 Runs (-102 at FanDuel) 

• And there’s more to like from that game: Crochet, who is 1-1 with 21 strikeouts to one walk over 18 innings, faces a Reds squad that ranks sixth in MLB for strikeouts. Crochet’s precision and ability to control the game could make things tough on the Reds. Crochet Over 6.5 strikeouts (-114 at Caesars Sportbook) 

• Dakota Hudson of the Rockies, with a 2.38 ERA in 11.1 innings, is up against Bowden Francis of the Blue Jays, who’s struggling with a 12.96 ERA and 0-2 record - he’s already surrendered 4 home runs and 12 earned runs. Francis’s early-season woes present an opportunity for Colorado to grab an early advantage. First 5 ML Rockies (+148 at FanDuel)

• With an 0-8 home record, the Miami Marlins are desperate for a win. But they seem outclassed by the Atlanta Braves, who many consider a World Series contender despite a slow start. The Braves won this matchup 8-1 last night, so it doesn’t look like there will be many surprises in this series. Braves -1.5 Spread (-198 at FanDuel)

• The surging Mets, with six wins in their last eight games, are starting Sean Manaea, who has held opponents to just 1 earned run and secured 14 strikeouts in 11 innings. He’s going up against the Royals’ Alex Marsh, who has allowed 4 runs in 11.2 innings this season and struggled last year with a 5.17 ERA on the road. Advantage Mets. Mets ML (-158 at FanDuel)

• Shota Imanaga of the Cubs is off to an impressive start to his MLB career, allowing no runs and only four hits in two games, and has a 34% strikeout rate with a 1-0 record. He faces the Mariners today, who rank among the league's worst in runs batted in (27th) and team batting average (27th). Chicago Cubs ML (-130 at FanDuel)

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