Decision Day in the NBA Means Motivation Could be a Major Factor

It’s decision day in the NBA, with the No. 1 seed in the West, No. 2 seed in the East, and play-in game demotion/promotion all on the table. USA Today helpfully laid out the NBA playoff scenarios possible today. It’s an early slate, with all games at either 1pm or 3:30pm. Enjoy the afternoon!

In today’s edition, Chris is tracking the NBA teams playing for something vs. the ones ready for vacation, and even checks in on one of the most meaningless matchups of the day - Pistons/Spurs. In baseball, Craig is watching to see if Zack Gelof’s mini-streak against Trevor Williams continues, and is looking forward to a pitchers’ duel out of James Paxton and Yu Darvish. And Sam is covering a lot of intriguing soccer matchups, including Mohamed Salah’s chances against Crystal Palace, and a motivated, underdog Roma squad against Udinese.

And four players are within four strokes of Scottie Scheffler at the Masters. It’s going to be a great Sunday.

Abe

• The Orlando Magic find themselves in an uncomfortable position, one they probably couldn't have imagined a few weeks ago. They need a win or they could be at risk to enter the play-in tournament. The Bucks are without Giannis, and frankly we're not entirely sure they want the #2 seed any longer. Who wants to face the surging 76ers with Embiid back? Orlando is the clear chalk for a reason. Magic -5 (-108 at FanDuel)

• One thing that's unchanged about the Wizards this season is their pace. Washington runs at the fastest tempo in the association (1st overall this season, 2nd overall the last 2 weeks) and has been one of the faster-paced teams for the last few years. Boston is sitting their stars in yet another meaningless contest, so this could quickly turn into a showcase of offense as young players look to audition for their futures in the final matchup of the regular season. Wizards/Celtics over 223.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• The Indiana Pacers still haven't clinched a playoff berth, which means they'll enter this contest with malintent against a Hawks' squad that cannot move out of the 10th spot in the East. Atlanta would be better off resting their best players and dismissing this final battle of the season, while the Pacers will be dead-set on solidifying their place in the postseason after stumbling against Cleveland two nights ago. Pacers -14 (-108 at FanDuel)

• Most chalked up wagers aren't worth the value, hence why professionals tend to steer people away from heavy favorites. In this case, it could be argued that bettors are getting incredible value even at -230. Denver's only shot at the #1 seed is to beat Memphis, and after their upset loss at San Antonio they'll be fired up to take vengeance on their next opponent. The champs know how to button up when the time comes. Nuggets win 1Q and Full Game (-230 at FanDuel)

• The grand finale of the Spurs' season already happened two days ago, as Victor Wembanyama and his team pulled off the ultimate upset as 11.5-point underdogs versus the reigning champions. The emotional come-down of one final contest against the Pistons will only feel burdensome. Detroit wants to end their season on a high note, too, and the market is overcorrecting on an improved Spurs' squad. Pistons +6 (-110 at DraftKings)

• One of the few games that should have an authentic intensity on both sides, the Suns could still avoid the play-in tournament with a win, and the Timberwolves will earn the West's #1 seed with a win and OKC loss. The Timberwolves are and have been the NBA’s best defense all season, and a postseason feel should mean nerves, physical defense, and more hesitation than usual. Suns/Timberwolves under 217 (-110 at FanDuel)

• The Lakers find themselves in the 8th seed, which means they could avoid a two-game series in the play-in tournament. New Orleans is fighting to avoid the play-in. They've been through some absolute battles in the last week, fending off motivated Kings and Warriors' squads in back-to-back affairs. LeBron James' experience and poise, which made a huge difference throughout the playoffs last season, will likely play a huge role tonight, and LAL has the front court to go pound-for-pound with the muscle of Zion and the Pelicans. Lakers +4 (-112 at DraftKings and FanDuel)

• Zack Gelof has three hits and two homers against Nationals starter Trevor Williams in three at-bats. The sample size is tiny, but it certainly appears that Gelof sees the ball well against Williams. We’re not necessarily banking on another four-bagger for Gelof. But his early dominance of this matchup makes us think he can find a gap or perhaps even record a multi-hit game (though we’re more bullish on the former). Zack Gelof over 1.5 total bases (+133 Caesars)

• The Braves are a difficult matchup, there’s no denying that. However, they’re not playing at the dominant level we expect them to reach this summer. Marlins southpaw Jesus Luzardo has enjoyed some success against the Braves, recording six punchouts in four of six starts. He’ll need to navigate Marcell Ozuna and Ozzie Albies, but several of the Braves’ top hitters, notably Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Michael Harris, are scuffling against lefties. Jesus Luzardo over 5.5 strikeouts (-130 FanDuel)

• Zack Wheeler has been sharp over his first three starts, and he completed seven frames in his most recent turn, suggesting the Phillies are ready to let him work deeper into his starts. He’s comfortable at Citizens Bank Park, pitching to a sub-1.00 WHIP over 381 career innings. Pirates starter Mitch Keller, meanwhile, is faced with navigating a Phillies lineup that has roughed him in his career. Phillies -0.5 first five innings (-135 FanDuel)

• The hang up with anticipating a big night from Blake Snell is the length we can bank on him delivering. He labored in a loss to the Nationals, needing 72 pitches to clear three frames. He also got a late start to the season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued playing catch up and was held to a relatively modest workload. Blake Snell under 7.5 Strikeouts (-165 DraftKings)

• The Blue Jays are -120 on the run line and -240 on the moneyline largely due to the expected pitching advantage they hold. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland gives up a lot of contact, a concerning proposition against an underperforming but talented Blue Jays lineup. Meanwhile, Toronto starter Jose Berrios has pitched at least six innings in each of his three starts and allowed fewer than a hit per inning. Blue Jays most hits (-160 FanDuel)

• James Paxton and Yu Darvish face off in a potential pitcher’s duel to end the Sunday slate. Paxton is off to a good start through a couple of turns, and Darvish owns good career numbers against the Dodgers, including a 1.98 ERA and 0.73 WHIP against them in 2023. It will be a cool night in Chavez Ravine, suggesting both teams may need to score runs the hard way throughout the evening. Padres vs. Dodgers Under 9 (-110 Caesars)

• There are several factors supporting Justin Turner’s Sunday outlook. He owns a .333 average against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland across 48 at-bats, a nice sample size for a one-on-one matchup. He’s batting .350 overall and is 5 for 7 against southpaws — he’s -260 to record a hit. Freeland is a pitch-to-contact lefty facing a team that doesn’t whiff against portsiders. Justin Turner base hit, RBI (+124 FanDuel)

• The Premier League title race continues today with Man City overtaking Liverpool and Arsenal by beating Luton yesterday. That puts the pressure on Liverpool, who face a home game against Crystal Palace. Step forward, the Egyptian King, who has been very good at Anfield this season. Mohamed Salah has scored in nine of his past 13 games at home, but with a goal at -125 there are marginally better odds on him having Over 1.5 shots on target. This is a stat that he’s landed in 10 of his past 13 home games in the Premier League, so it’s a better price for something that’s occurred more frequently this campaign. Mohamed Salah Over 1.5 Shots on Target (-120 at Bet365)

• We really should see Liverpool take the three points here. They have just two defeats to their name in the Premier League this season, the fewest of any team, and Palace are yet to win on the road under new manager Oliver Glasner. While Liverpool should go on and win this, there’s a massive price on the scores being level at halftime. We’ve seen Palace level at the interval 17 times this season, the second-highest total in the Premier League, including in five of their past seven - including last week’s game against Man City. Liverpool, for their part, have largely been a second-half team this season and would only be fourth if it was only the first half of games that counted, yet have the best record in the Premier League in the second half of games. Draw/Liverpool – Halftime/Fulltime (+370 at BetRivers)

• It feels like West Ham vs Fulham is going to be one of those hard-fought London derbies today, lots of passion on display but potentially little real quality. I can’t escape the feeling it’ll finish level (+270 if you’re wondering) but I can’t back that hunch up with raw data. One thing that is backed by statistics is Joao Palhinha’s tendency to get booked. The Portuguese international has 12 yellow cards in just 27 Premier League games this season and got booked in the reverse of this fixture back in December. These teams are playing at a similar level right now, especially with West Ham missing Jarrod Bowen, which when combined with the local rivalry nature of this game, gives real hope that Palhinha gets his name in the referee’s book. Joao Palhinha to be shown a card (+170 at FanDuel)

• There are no easy games at this time of the season, but on paper you’d think this is a game that Milan should win. Sassuolo are 19^th in Serie A and look set to get relegated. They threw away a 2-0 lead on Friday and now haven’t won in their last three games. The Rossoneri have won their past five in Serie A, and although they lost to Roma in Europe on Thursday, they’ll be back focused on the league today and looking to cement their second placed finish. AC Milan to win (-125 at FanDuel)

• With Arsenal having won 10 of their last 11 Premier League games, besides a 0-0 draw with Man City, it’s clearly going to be a very long day for Aston Villa as they face one of the league’s best attacking units. Playing in the heart of defense means that Diego Carlos and Pau Torres will be in the middle of that action. Diego Carlos has averaged a tackle every 62.3 minutes for Villa this season. Against opposition of the standard of Arsenal, the Brazilian is likely to be called into action more and we should see him make two or more tackles as his team try to keep the Gunners out. Diego Carlos Over 1.5 tackles (-120 at Bet365)

• Leverkusen can get one step closer to sealing their first Bundesliga title with a win, and they come into today unbeaten in their past 42 games. It really can’t be overstated just how excellent this team have been throughout the season, both in terms of winning games but also the manner in which they play. Leverkusen won 3-0 in Bremen earlier in the season and should win at home, especially with the title so close. They’ve been ahead at both halftime and fulltime in five of their last seven Bundesliga games. Bayer Leverkusen/Bayer Leverkusen – Halftime/Fulltime (+135 at Caesars)

• The Giallorossi might be fifth in the Serie A table, but since Danielle Di Rossi replaced Jose Mourinho as manager, they’ve had the second best form in the league. They also come into this on the back of beating AC Milan in the Europa League, while Udinese have lost their last three games at home and won just one game in their last eight. Roma have four clean sheets in a row across all competitions and know a win could help them in their bid to overtake Bologna for the fourth placed finish in Serie A. Roma to win (+125 at FanDuel)

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