Arenado, Goldschmidt Hope Familiar Foe Can Get Them Going

Scottie Scheffler’s second win at the Masters was never really in doubt. That was good news for everyone that backed the favorite, who was +325 to start the tournament. Max Homa, who finished in a tie for third, saw his very small chance to keep up with Scheffler end after an unlucky double-bogey at the 12th, when his tee shot ran off the green into a bush. Homa’s thoughts on what happened spoke to frustrated golfers everywhere: “The honest answer is, it didn’t feel fair. I hit a really good golf shot, and it didn’t feel fair. I’ve seen far worse just roll back down the hill,” he said. “The professional answer is, these things happen.”

Since MLB is all that’s on the docket for us today, we’re giving you a few extra matchups to look at in the newsletter. Craig is following the Cardinals to see if a familiar foe can help Paul Goldschmidt get over his slow start, and doesn’t see any signs of slowing for new Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow.

We’re back tomorrow with insights on the NBA Play-In games, so make sure to check that out.

Abe

• The Mets, in spite of their shortcomings, do a good job making contact, especially against lefties (19 K, 119 AB). Pirates starter Martin Perez has been knocked around by some Mets hitters, including lefties Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil. And the Mets have recorded double-digit knocks in four of their last six. Mets most hits (-110 FanDuel)

• Monday’s matchup featuring right-handers Darius Vines for the Braves and Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros has the potential for crooked numbers on both sides. The Astros are a tough lineup to navigate for any starter, let alone a young one who will be hard pressed to miss bats. Meanwhile Arrighetti could struggle against a deep Braves lineup as well. Braves vs. Astros over 9.5 (-110 FanDuel)

• Joe Musgrove offers a theoretical advantage over the Milwaukee Brewers and Joe Ross. Musgrove has good numbers against current Brewers hitters, surrendering a mere five hits across 42 at-bats. Ross, though he’s pitched well through two starts, owns a 1.22 WHIP on the season. Padres moneyline (-126 FanDuel)

• We wouldn’t categorize A.J. Puk vs. Kyle Harrison as a pitcher’s duel, but we’re not anticipating a slugfest either. In spite of inflated metrics in both pitchers’ profiles, runs may come at a premium - especially early in the game. The Marlins are simply not hitting as a team, particularly against lefties (.178 BA, 269 AB). Harrison is capable of missing bats, and Puk has made modest improvement across his first three starts. Giants vs. Marlins under 2.5 first three innings (-120 DraftKings)

• Kyle Schwarber is batting .242 on the season — which is Luis Arraez territory for him — and he’s hit safely in 4 out of 5, including connecting on a homer against Marco Gonzales on Saturday. He has three homers in 11 at-bats against Rockies starter Cal Quantrill, who is struggling to keep the ball in the yard (15 IP, 4 HR). Kyle Schwarber home run (+220 Fanduel)

• Charlie Blackmon is swinging the bat well overall and owns a 1.206 OPS in 27 AB against Phillies righty Aaron Nola. Meanwhile, Nola is struggling to start the season with four homers allowed across his first 16 innings. Diminished velocity can help explain his lower strikeout rate and elevated walk rate, factors that inject more enthusiasm into Blackmon’s outlook. Charlie Blackmon over 1.5 total bases (+133 Caesars)

• Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt both have experience bullying A’s starter Ross Stripling from their NL West days. Stripling has been the victim of some bad luck this season, but his velocity is down and he’s missing fewer bats. Cards fans are still waiting for Arenado and Goldschmidt to get going, but this is a spot in which both could create a spark. Goldschmidt hit + Arenado hit (-115 Caesars)

• Cardinals’ pitcher Sonny Gray is a superior starter to Stripling on paper, and the Athletics are batting .210 on the season against right-handers. Considering the success Goldschmidt and Arenado have enjoyed against Stripling, the Cardinals may not need to do much heavy lifting against an overmatched A’s squad. Cardinals -1.5 (+100 Caesars)

• Tyler Glasnow was electrifying against the Minnesota Twins in his last start (14 K, 88 pitches). We’re not looking at his strikeouts in this spot — the Washington Nationals are stingy with whiffs — but we like Glasnow to stifle the Nats nonetheless. Whether it’s via a punchout or inducing weak contact, we’re anticipating modest, at best, offensive production from Washington in this one. Dodgers -2.5 alternate run line (+104 Caesars)

• The Diamondbacks are sending Merrill Kelly to the hill against young Cubs right-hander Ben Brown. Brown has a big arm and he’s proud of it, but he’s still a “thrower,” as opposed to the more polished Kelly, who also likes pitching at home. Kelly has not allowed more than two runs through three starts, which bodes well for the Dbacks. Diamondbacks moneyline (-145 DraftKings)

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