The NBA Play-In Tournament Begins with Steph Curry in a Must-Win

The NBA’s Play-In Tournament starts tonight with Steph Curry facing an elimination game before the playoffs even begin. That’s must-watch TV. The NBA has a helpful explainer if you’re like me and forgot how the Play-In works. And our News section is all WNBA today, so read to the bottom if you missed last night’s draft (non-spoiler: Caitlin Clark went first).

In today’s newsletter, Jason is looking for Domantas Sabonis to continue spreading the ball around and for the Lakers to have a repeat performance against the Pels - and hopes Draymond Green realizes he shouldn’t get thrown out of tonight’s game. On the MLB side, Jack is covering Giancarlo Stanton’s struggles against Blue Jays pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, and Astros pitcher Hunter Brown’s struggles in general.

Abe

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• The Lakers take on the Pelicans in a 7-8 Play-In Tournament game for the chance to face the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. LA dominated the Pelicans on Sunday, with a 124-108 win on the road. In that game, LeBron James earned a triple-double, and Anthony Davis scored 30 points and hauled in 11 rebounds. In addition, four of the five starters for the Lakers added 19+ points against the Pelicans. Tonight’s game against the Pelicans should be similar to Sunday’s matchup. The winner will get the Nuggets in a seven-game series in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Los Angeles Lakers +1.5 (-120 at ESPNBet)

• Many NBA fans just can’t see the Golden State Warriors missing the playoffs this season. However, the Warriors are the road team in a must-win game against the Kings in a 9-10 matchup. The Kings and Warriors have played in some really tight games throughout the season. However, to finish out the year, the Kings looked locked in against the Blazers, winning by nearly 40 points. Their defense has been earning turnovers at a high rate, which should continue against a Warriors team that struggles to hold onto the ball. Sacramento Kings MONEYLINE (+135 at Caesars)

• While Sunday’s game saw 232 points, don’t look for such a high-scoring affair in the Lakers-Pelicans matchup tonight. The Lakers held the Pelicans to just 108.4 points per 100 possessions. They also earned 17.9% of turnovers in that game and limited the Pelicans to only 21.4% of offensive rebounds. The Lakers are also very good at limiting teams from getting to the foul line. On the other hand, if you take away Sunday’s game against the Lakers, the Pelicans held three of their previous four opponents to no more than 108.1 points per 100 possessions. Like the Lakers, the Pelicans have done well forcing turnovers and limiting offensive rebounds. Lakers vs. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 (-110 at ESPN Bet)

• Andrew Wiggins scored 15.8 points per game in his last eight games. He’s shot 42.2% from the field and has hit 35% from downtown during that stretch. While Wiggins has had a little more success against the Kings this year, he has only scored 15 or more points in 38% of games this season. He’s not someone you can trust anymore. It’d be surprising if he even gets 10 shots in tonight’s game. And for the season, Wiggins averaged only 13.2 points per game, which was a career-low. Andrew Wiggins UNDER 16.5 Points (-155 at DraftKings)

• Domantas Sabonis averaged 9.5 assists per game against the Warriors in four matchups this season. He’s also coming into this game with two consecutive nine-assist games. The Sacramento center will face a Warriors defense that ranks 20th in assists allowed to centers this season. Nobody would be surprised if Sabonis adds a triple-double, but all we’re looking for is eight assists out of him. Domantas Sabonis OVER 7.5 Assists (-165 at DraftKings)

• In four games against the Pelicans, Austin Reaves has nailed 45.5% of his three-point attempts. On Sunday, Reaves went 3-for-7 from downtown against the Pels to continue his streak of three three-pointers made. He’s now nailed at least three threes in three straight games. This month, he’s averaged six three-point attempts per game. We also saw LeBron James add 17 assists against New Orleans on Sunday. James wants everyone involved and knows how to make the right reads, especially against the Pelicans. That’ll help give Reaves some open looks from deep. Austin Reaves Over 2.5 Threes (+152 at FanDuel)

• Draymond Green has only attempted seven shots in his last two games. However, he’s also earned 21 assists. He’s looking to get everyone involved and knows his role with the Warriors, and the Kings currently rank 22nd in the NBA in assists allowed to power forwards this year. Sometimes, betting on an Over for Green could be a rollercoaster, but the veteran should understand that tonight’s not the night to get ejected. Draymond Green OVER 6.5 Assists (-105 at DraftKings)

• The pitching matchup between Dylan Cease and Wade Miley seems even on the surface, but we’re giving the advantage to Cease. In 28 plate appearances against the San Diego Padres righty, current Milwaukee Brewers hitters are batting just .074 with a .130 xwOBA and a 42.9% strikeout rate. On the other side, the Padres have the second-highest OPS against lefties (.815) this season. San Diego Padres first five innings -0.5 (+100 DraftKings)

• The Philadelphia Phillies have been ice cold at the plate lately, but this is a great spot for an offensive bounce back. In 59 plate appearances against Colorado Rockies starter Austin Gomber, current Phillies hitters have a xwOBA of .400, an expected slugging percentage of .596 and an average exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour, via Baseball Savant. Colorado’s bullpen also has the highest WHIP (1.77) and the third-highest ERA (5.61) in baseball.  Philadelphia Phillies team total over 4.5 runs (-125 DraftKings)

• This is a scary one, but stick with us here. In 18 career plate appearances against Toronto Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi, Giancarlo Stanton has eight strikeouts and only one hit. We know Stanton loves to pound pitches up in the zone, but Kikuchi ranks sixth in MLB among qualified pitchers in ground ball rate (57.9%). The left-hander knows how to pitch away from Stanton’s strength. Giancarlo Stanton under 0.5 hits (+155 DraftKings)

• Hunter Brown would like to go back in time and start the season over. The Houston Astros right-hander is 0-2 through three starts with 14 earned runs in only 7.2 innings of work, and he got shelled for 11 hits and nine runs in the first inning in his last start against the Kansas City Royals. Brown hasn’t made it past the fourth inning this year, and he’s gone under 15.5 outs 10 times in his last 11 starts, dating back to last season. He’ll have a hard time breaking that streak against a loaded Atlanta Braves lineup. Hunter Brown under 15.5 outs recorded (-155 DraftKings)

• What do we know about Lance Lynn? Well, he’s an ultra-aggressive pitcher who can rack up strikeouts in a hurry but also gives up a ton of hard-hit balls. This is a perfect matchup for him, as the Oakland Athletics rank dead last in MLB in hard-hit rate (32.7%), zone contact rate (67.3%) and whiff rate (33.7%). The As also have the highest strikeout rate in the league, so Lynn should have success challenging this lineup all night. Lance Lynn over 6.5 Ks (+110 DraftKings)

• JP Sears is on pace for the highest walk rate in his career (9.1%), but he’s been rather unlucky in that respect. The As left-hander has the third-lowest out of zone rate (43.1%) in MLB among 138 qualified pitchers. Positive walk regression is coming for Sears, and now he gets to face a St. Louis Cardinals lineup that has the fifth-lowest walk rate (7.3%) and the seventh-highest swing rate (48%) in the league. JP Sears under 1.5 Walks (+115 DraftKings)

• Miguel Rojas must’ve woken up with a big smile on his face considering the pitching matchup on deck Tuesday night. In 44 career plate appearances against Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin, Rojas is batting .405 and slugging .703 with three home runs. The Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop is much better against left-handed pitching, and this is one of his favorite starters to face. This is a great price on good matchup. Miguel Rojas to hit a home run (+950 DraftKings)

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