Home Teams Favored to Move On in NBA Play-Ins + MLB Pitching Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: A look at where the early bettors are in the NBA Playoffs

• Top 10 Bets: Klay is averaging 11.4 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists over past 11

• Heat vs. Bulls: Chicago won all 3 matchups this season

• Mavericks vs. Kings: Sacramento swept season series (1 in OT)

• Matchups: Red Sox have just 6 hits in 51 at bats against tonight’s opponent

• Overtime: The Mavs are still saying they have no regrets

There’s still more play-in action to go tonight and Friday (more on that below), but we wanted to start off today by looking at where the early bettors are in Saturday’s NBA playoff matchups:

• Bucks @ Pacers

  • Moneyline (Indiana -205): 59% of the money is with Milwaukee but 52% of the bets are with Indiana

  • Spread (Indiana -5.5): 70% of the money is with Indiana but 64% of bets are with Milwaukee

• Clippers @ Nuggets

  • Moneyline (Denver -130): 75% of the money is with LA but 66% of the bets are with Denver

  • Spread (-2.5 Denver): 65% of the money is with LA but 54% of the bets are with Denver

• Pistons @ Knicks

  • Moneyline (New York -280): 54% of the money and 74% of the bets are with New York

  • Spread (New York -7): 75% of the money and 65% of the bets are with Detroit

• Timberwolves @ Lakers

  • Moneyline (LA -185): 61% of the money and 80% of the bets are with LA

  • Spread (LA -4.5): 62% of the money is with Minnesota but 57% of the bets are with LA

In today’s newsletter, Jack gives you his top 10 bets to watch across the NBA, MLB and golf. We also have in-depth previews of the two play-in games that will decide who will move on to face the Hawks and Grizzlies to earn the eight seeds in the playoffs. And we look at four pitching matchups across today’s MLB slate.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter said he wouldn’t play football anymore if his team won’t let him play both offense and defense.

NBA Play-In Games, MLB Matchups and this Week’s PGA Tour Stop

By Jack Dougherty

Kevin Huerter over 2.5 threes (+122 at FanDuel)
Huerter has been a busy shooter since jumping to Chicago’s starting lineup last month. In 16 starts with the Bulls, Huerter has averaged 7.2 three-point attempts per game and has shot 41.7% from beyond the arc. The Heat are also content with letting him fire from deep, as the shooting guard has attempted nine three-pointers in each of his past two games against Miami. Huerter has hit this line in four of his past five games and has a solid matchup to keep it rolling.

Klay Thompson under 19.5 points + rebounds + assists (-122 at FanDuel)
Thompson isn’t much of a stat-stuffer at this point in his career, and his production even dipped down the stretch of the season. The veteran shooting guard has gone under this line in seven of his past 11 games while averaging 11.4 points, 2.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. He’s also gone under this number in six of the nine games Anthony Davis has played with the Mavericks. 

MLB

Robbie Ray 3+ walks allowed (-135 at DraftKings)
Ray is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA through three starts, but he’s been much worse than those raw numbers suggest. The Giants left-hander has especially struggled to find the strike zone, as he ranks in the ninth percentile in walk rate (16.1%) and has a 43.2% zone rate, which would be the second-worst mark of his career. Ray has surrendered nine walks in his last two starts, and now he has to face a patient Phillies lineup that has the highest walk rate (11.4%) and the seventh-lowest chase rate (26.5%) in the league.

Angels moneyline first 5 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
Happy Fade Patrick Corbin Day to all who celebrate. Corbin has been one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB over the last few years, and it looks like nothing has changed with his new team. In his first start with the Rangers, the left-hander gave up five hits and three earned runs in 4.0 innings of work, putting up an 11.16 xERA and a .414 xBA in the process. On the other side, Jose Soriano has looked great through three starts with a 1.00 WHIP and a 27.3% whiff rate. The Angels should be bigger favorites in the first 5 market with this pitching matchup on deck. 

Spencer Strider under 5.5 strikeouts (+126 at FanDuel)
We don’t want to make a habit of fading Strider with his strikeout prop, but this could be the time to do so in his first major league start in more than a year. The right-hander will be on a pitch count in his return to Atlanta’s rotation, and he’ll need to be extremely effective with his strikeouts in a limited workload. Strider’s fastball velocity was down to about 95 mph during his Triple-A rehab assignment, so he likely won’t be his dominant self right away. The Blue Jays also have the second-lowest strikeout rate against righties this month (16.8%).

Kyren Paris over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re not done fading Corbin just yet, and who better to do that with than the hottest hitter in the Angels lineup to start the season? Paris is batting .366 with a 1.265 OPS this year, and he’s cleared this line in six of his 11 starts. He’s also batting .571 against left-handed pitching this season. Corbin throws his slider and cutter a combined 52% of the time, which are two pitches Paris has been crushing early in the season.

Dean Kremer under 4.5 strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings)
Kremer has struggled to generate swings and misses to open up the 2025 season, as he’s recorded just 11 strikeouts in 14.1 innings of work. He ranks in the fifth percentile in whiff rate (15.7%) and the 17th percentile in strikeout rate (15.9%) through three starts. As for the matchup, current Guardians hitters have just a 15.9% K rate against Kremer in 44 plate appearances. Cleveland also has the fifth-lowest chase rate (26.2%) in MLB this year.

Golf

Patrick Cantlay top-10 finish (+185 at FanDuel)
The RBC Heritage might as well be called the Patrick Cantlay Invitational with how well he typically plays here. The 33-year-old has notched three straight top-three finishes at Harbour Town Golf Links, putting him behind only reigning champion Scottie Scheffler in Data Golf’s Course History Tool. Over the past 24 rounds at Pete Dye courses, Cantlay ranks fifth in the field in total strokes gained and second in strokes gained from off the tee. He feels comfortable on less-than-driver courses that force you to aim for specific sections of the fairway, which is Harbour Town to a tee. 

Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+115 at FanDuel)
Morikawa didn’t have his A game at The Masters and was still able to finish in a tie for 14th place, which should tell you how well he’s playing this year. Before Augusta, Morikawa notched three top-10 finishes in his previous five starts and didn’t finish worse than T17. Harbour Town is the perfect golf course for Morikawa’s game because it emphasizes accuracy off the tee to tree-lined fairways and precision with your irons to tiny greens. He ranks first on Tour this season in driving accuracy and strokes gained on approach, so he should be in contention as long as his short game holds up. 

Daniel Berger top-20 finish (+150 at FanDuel)
Berger is finally starting to look like his old self again. The American has recorded seven straight top-30 finishes and has gained strokes in all four major categories six times in that span. There’s no weakness in Berger’s game right now, and he gets to return to a golf course that’s been kind to him throughout his career. In his last three starts at Harbour Town, he’s finished T21, T13 and T3. Berger’s floor is incredibly high right now with the way he’s been playing, so a top-20 bet is the perfect way to play him. 

Giddey Dropped a Triple-Double Last Week Against Heat

Heat (37-45, 17-23 Away) vs. Bulls (39-43, 18-23 Home)
7:30pm on ESPN 

• Spread: Bulls -1 (-114), Heat +1 (-106)

  • CHI: 43-37-2, MIA: 37-43-2

  • 76% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Bulls

• Moneyline: Bulls -120, Heat +102

• Total (219.5): Over/Under -110

  • CHI: 42-38-2, MIA: 44-38-0

Head to Head

• Feb. 4 @ Chicago: Bulls won 133-124

  • Leading points: Giddey (24), Herro (23)

  • Leading rebounds: Vucevic (11), Ware (12)

  • Leading assists: Dosunmu (9), Herro (9)

• March 8 @ Miami: Bulls won 114-109

  • Leading points: Giddey (26), Adebayo (22)

  • Leading rebounds: Collins (15), Ware (12)

  • Leading assists: Giddey (12), Mitchell (8)

• April 9 @ Chicago: Bulls won 119-111

  • Leading points: Giddey (28), Herro (30)

  • Leading rebounds: Giddey (16), Highsmith (8)

  • Leading assists: Gidden (11), Mitchell (8)

Kings Lost 13 of Last 20, Mavericks Lost 15 of Last 22

Mavericks (39-43, 17-25 Away) vs. Kings (40-42, 20-21 Home)
10pm on ESPN 

• Spread: Kings -4.5 (-112), Mavericks +4.5 (-108)

  • SAC: 34-44-4, DAL: 37-42-3

  • 70% of the money and 61% of the bets are with the Kings

• Moneyline: Kings -196, Mavericks +164

• Total (216): Over -106, Under -114

  • SAC: 42-39-1, DAL: 45-36-1

Head to Head

• Dec. 30 @ Sacramento: Kings won 110-100

  • Leading points: Fox (33), Dinwiddie (30)

  • Leading rebounds: Sabonis (16), Grimes (7)

  • Leading assists: Sabonis (7), Dinwiddie (6)

• Feb. 10 @ Dallas: Kings won 129-128 (OT)

  • Leading points: DeRozan (42), Irving (30)

  • Leading rebounds: Sabonis (15), Irving (6)

  • Leading assists: Monk (8), Irving (7)

• March 3 @ Dallas: Kings won 122-98

  • Leading points: LaVine (22), Jones (21)

  • Leading rebounds: Valanciunas (9), Jones (8)

  • Leading assists: Monk (8), Marshall (6)

Current Red Sox Average .118 Against Rays’ Littell, Who is Off to a Slow Start this Year

Steven Matz (Cardinals) vs. Astros — 1:15pm

• Season: No starts, 5 games, 11.2 innings, 11 hits, 3 earned runs, 2 BB, 6 K

• Matchup: Current Astros hitters have 43 at bats against Matz and combine for a .372 average (16 hits, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K)

• Players to Watch

  • Jose Altuve: 3-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2K

  • Yordan Alvarez: 3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 1K

  • Christian Walker: 3-14, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 BB, 2 K

Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks) @ Marlins — 6:40pm

• Season: 2-1, 3.50 ERA, 18.0 innings, 16 hits, 7 earned runs, 4 HR, 3 BB, 12 K

• Matchup: Current Marlins hitters have just 18 at bats against Pfaadt and combine for a .389 average (7 hits, 1 2B, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K)

• Players to Watch

  • Kyle Stowers: 2-3, 1 RBI

  • Jesus Sanchez: 2-5, 1 2B, 1 BB, 1 K

  • Xavier Edwards: 0-3, 1 RBI, 1K

Zack Littell (Rays) vs. Red Sox — 7:05pm

• Season: 0-3, 6.88 ERA, 17.0 innings, 18 hits, 13 earned runs, 5 HR, 3 BB, 14 K

• Matchup: Current Red Sox hitters have 51 at bats against Littell and combine for a .118 average (6 hits, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 19 K)

• Players to Watch

  • Jarren Duran: 3-9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI

  • Wilyer Abreu: 0-8, 3K

  • Alex Bregman: 0-8, 1 RBI, 2 K

  • Rafael Devers: 2-8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

Kris Bubic (Royals) @ Yankees — 7:05pm

• Season: 2-1, 0.96 ERA, 18.2 innings, 13 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 HR, 5 BB, 21 K

• Matchup: Current Yankees hitters have 19 at bats against Bubic and combine for a .368 average (7 hits, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K)

• Players to Watch

  • Aaron Judge: 3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

  • Paul Goldschmidt: 2-5, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Austin Wells: 0-2, 1 RBI, 2 K

In the News 

• The Mavericks GM said he still has no regrets about the Luka Doncic trade.

• Real Madrid has to accomplish something only four teams have done in Champions League history to advance in the tournament today: Erase a three-goal deficit at home.

• Trae Young got kicked out of the Hawks play-in loss last night for “making a mockery of the game.”

• A look at the most surprising moments of the WNBA Draft.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 3pm: Real Madrid vs. Arsenal or Inter Milan vs. Bayern Munich in Champions League action on Paramount+

• 6:40pm: Mariners vs. Reds on FS1

• 7:05pm: Royals vs. Yankees on Prime

• 7:30pm: Heat vs. Bulls on ESPN

• 10pm: Mavericks vs. Kings on ESPN

Photo of the Day