Hawks and Bulls Face Elimination in the NBA Play-In, Arsenal and Man City Look to Advance in Champions League

The Lakers are headed to the playoffs and the Warriors are out. If you read us yesterday, Day 1 of the Play-In Tournament wouldn’t have surprised you - but it’s still jarring to see the Warriors lose early.

In today’s newsletter, it’s the East’s turn for the Play-In, with the Hawks and Bulls facing an elimination game and the Heat and 76ers battling for the 7th-seed.

Jason is looking for the 76ers to start quick and for the Hawks defense to kind-of contain DeMar DeRozan. In baseball, Malcolm is tracking Mets starter Luis Severino to see if he continues his solid, and short, outings. And it’s a Champions League Wednesday: Sam is covering Harry Kane’s bid to cause new nightmares for Arsenal fans and is impressed by Phil Foden’s goal-scoring form.

Abe

• The winner of the 76ers and Heat matchup will be the 7-seed and face the Knicks in the first round, while the loser will have to play a game on Friday for a shot at the 8-seed and a date with the Celtics. That said, the 76ers should come out strong at home. The Heat only ranked 19th in points scored in the first quarter, which doesn’t bode well on the road. Philadelphia 76ers 1st Quarter MONEYLINE (-142 at DraftKings)

• Yes, the Hawks allowed 157 points to the Pacers on Sunday. However, if you look at the last couple of weeks for Atlanta, the defense has been so much better than its offense. Atlanta has held five of their last eight opponents to at most 109 points per 100 possessions. If you take away the matchup against the Pacers, the Hawks have held six of their last seven opponents to no more than 19.3% of offensive rebounds. Center Clint Capela missed that Pacers game, but he’ll be back for this one. Hawks vs. Bulls UNDER 222 (-105 at Caesars)

• While the Hawks should play better defense, they have lost six consecutive games, including an April 10th matchup against the lowly Hornets. The Hawks have had three instances where they’ve scored no more than 105 points per 100 possessions in this month alone. Meanwhile, Chicago has added at least 122.6 points per 100 possessions in three of their last four games and just took the Knicks to overtime as a 13.5-point underdog. Bulls -3 (-110 at Caesars)

• Since last year, Joel Embiid has only earned 12 or more rebounds in 33% of games against the Heat. He’s also hit this line in just 44% of games this season and in two of his first five games back. The Heat rank 17th in rebounds allowed to centers, which isn’t great. However, the Heat most recently played Embiid and the 76ers on April 4th and held Embiid to just four rebounds in 33 minutes. Embiid didn’t have a significant restriction and took 25 shots in that game. That’s how well the Heat contained Embiid. Joel Embiid UNDER 11.5 Rebounds (-110 at Hard Rock)

• Buddy Hield has faced the Miami Heat five times this season between being with the Pacers and 76ers. In those five games, he’s averaged 11 points per game. That said, Hield is coming off a 19-point performance against the Nets on Sunday, where he played 22 minutes and took 15 shots. He should be a legitimate portion of the offense for the 76ers in the playoffs, even with Embiid on the floor. Buddy Hield OVER 6.5 Points (-155 at DraftKings)

• I’ve already talked about how the Bulls-Hawks game could go Under the total. If it goes Under the total, many of the player prop totals will also go Under. In three games against the Hawks this season, DeMar DeRozan has averaged 28.3 points per game. He’s played almost 40 minutes per game and has even shot 49.1% from the field against the Hawks. While 28.3 points sounds like a lot, it’s still not enough for DeRozan to cash in this prop tonight. On April 1 against the Hawks, DeRozan shot just 43.5% from the field but still scored 31 points - thanks to 11 free throws. But it’s the playoffs now. It’s unlikely he gets to the foul line that many times in this one. DeMar DeRozan UNDER 29.5 Points (-108 at DraftKings)

• This month, Bulls guard Coby White has attempted more than 15 shots per game. However, only five of those 15 shots have come from downtown. White has only hit 1.3 threes per night this month, shooting just 25% from deep in seven games. He’s also 0-for-5 from 3 in his last two games and has taken five threes in his previous 34 shots. White will score some, but it won’t be from long range. Coby White UNDER 2.5 Threes (-137 at Caesars)

• The Rangers/Tigers series has seen tight, low-scoring games, reflecting the effectiveness of both teams' pitching and a current cool period for the bats. Starters Dane Dunning and Tarik Skubal have both had strong starts to the season. Adding to the pitching advantage, we could see nearly 12mph winds blowing into the infield, which could further suppress early scoring opportunities in this matchup. Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (-140 at DraftKings)

• Marcus Stroman steps up for the Yankees with a solid early-season performance, holding a 2.12 ERA across three starts. Despite a stumble against the Marlins, he’s been pretty consistent. Toronto's Kevin Gausman, on the other had, has struggled - posting an 11.57 ERA. In this past two outings, he’s given up 11 earned runs over just five innings. This pitching matchup, paired with the Yankees' potential for strong offensive resurgence, sets up New York well. New York Yankees ML (-120 at FanDuel) 

• After a rocky start, Mets pitcher Luis Severino has stabilized, demonstrating his strikeout capabilities with 17 Ks over three games. Facing Pittsburgh, which is fifth in MLB in strikeout rate, Severino has a chance to do some damage. The Pirates have 23 strikeouts in the first two games of this series. Luis Severino Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110 at DraftKings) 

• Severino has consistently been capped at five innings per start this season, even delivering a one-hitter in his last outing without extending beyond this limit. This pattern underlines a strategic approach by the Mets, limiting his exposure regardless of performance. Considering this trend, it's reasonable to expect Severino to again have a relatively short outing. Luis Severino Under 16.5 Outs (-110 at DraftKings)

• The Braves continue to be one of MLB’s most productive teams, ranking in the top three in runs per game. They face the Astros’ J.P. France, who has an 8.22 ERA and showed even more vulnerability his last time out - he allowed eight hits and eight runs in four innings. France’s tendency to yield at least three earned runs per game, coupled with command issues evident from seven walks, could lead to a struggle against Atlanta’s robust lineup. Atlanta Braves Over 4.5 runs (-128 at FanDuel)

• Reid Detmers and Zack Little both boast impressive starts to the season, with ERAs below 1.20, setting the stage for a pitcher’s duel. Detmers, with a standout 1.04 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 17.1 innings, leads MLB in strikeouts per nine innings. Similarly, Little has consistently limited opponents to one or fewer runs per game. Given the strong pitching and the lack of formidable offense from both teams, early game scoring could be minimal. Los Angeles Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays Under 4.5 Runs F5 (-144 at FanDuel) 

• The St. Louis Cardinals, known for their resilience at the plate with a team strikeout rate under 23%, face the A’s Paul Blackburn. Despite his near-perfect start to the season (1-0 record, 0.00 ERA, 0.72 WHIP), Blackburn isn’t striking batters out, ranking in 17th percentile for strikeout rate. Nothing points to a change in today’s matchup against the Cards’ disciplined hitters. Paul Blackburn Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130 at FanDuel) 

• Before Bayern Munich and Arsenal met at the Emirates last week, you couldn’t even get plus money on an Arsenal win. They’re now the underdogs with Bayern favored to win at Allianz Arena, but home advantage and an Arsenal defeat on Sunday isn’t enough for this amount of market swing. Arsenal may have lost 2-0 to Aston Villa, who are a very good side, but Bayern have conceded two or more goals in four of their past five games, the only exception being this weekend against Koln, who are in the relegation zone. Arsenal -1 (+410 at BetRivers)

• Arsenal fans will be praying that Harry Kane doesn’t come back to haunt them against Bayern today. The former Spurs man has had a big season for the Germans, despite them not winning the league. He’s scored 32 in the Bundesliga and a further seven in the Champions League, including a goal last week. He’s averaged 2.03 shots on target per game domestically this season. In the Champions League he’s had 1.35 shots on target per game, but consider that he had a tough group and it’s more impressive. The chances of more shots should be increased in a matchup that starts tied on aggregate. Harry Kane Over 1.5 Shots on Target (+125 at Bet365)

• We’re covering four plus-money opportunities in today’s selections, so please forgive me for adding something at -165, which is a Man City win over Real Madrid. The first leg of this game finished 3-3 in Madrid before heading back to Manchester for the second and decisive leg, a script that we’ve seen before. Let’s not forget that last year City drew 1-1 in Spain before taking them back to the UK and winning 4-0. City are the current champions, a team packed with world class players and the best coach of the modern era. We’ve seen real progression from Real Madrid this season but they’re not yet at the level of this City team, who are arguably one of the best to ever play. I wouldn’t put you off looking at City -1 on the spread, either. Man City to win (-165 at BetMGM)

• When City’s Phil Foden broke onto the scene at 17 we knew he’d be top class, but he’s really stepped up this season. The 23-year old has added goals to his game this campaign. He’s got 14 in the Premier League already this season, compared to just 11 in the last campaign. But in Europe he’s really elevated, with five goals, four more than throughout the whole of their Champions League winning season last year. Foden got on the scoresheet last week, and with his movement and reading of the game he consistently finds himself appearing in dangerous pockets of space. He was rested against Luton on Saturday, so he comes into this fresh and in great form, having scored four goals in his past two games. Phil Foden to score (+240 at Bet365)

• It’s clear that people expect goals in the City v. Real game, and who can blame them - especially with the first leg finishing with six goals. Over 3.5 goals has come in from +156 to +130 over the past day, a trend that’s likely to continue as we get closer to kick-off. This is the third successive season that the clubs have met in the knockout stages of the Champions League, and we’ve seen Over 3.5 goals land in four of the five meetings - with a grand total of 23 goals in those games. Over 3.5 goals (+130 at FanDuel)

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