A Big League Debut for a Big Name and Early NBA Playoffs Numbers to Watch

Coby White, who was averaging 17.6 points a game in his last 10, exploded for a career-high 42 in the Bulls win over the Hawks last night. White will remember this game for a long time, but it won’t count toward his regular season or playoff stats because play-in matchups are their own category. Not that stat nuance matters to White: “I’m definitely counting it as my career-high. It’s on the stat sheet right here.” The Bulls will face the Heat on Friday for the chance to earn the 8-seed and head to Boston.

In today’s edition, Craig covers the debut of Rangers starter Jack Leiter — the second pick of the 2021 MLB draft who comes from a family of pitchers — and is looking for slow starts in other games today. And on the NBA side, Chris looked ahead at some early numbers for the playoffs, which start on Saturday.

Come back tomorrow for our thoughts on Friday night’s NBA play-in games.

Abe

• Texas Rangers right-hander Jack Leiter is making his Major League debut, and even the light-hitting Tigers could punish him if he makes common rookie mistakes. Detroit, meanwhile, is calling on Kenta Maeda, who has bounced back after a miserable first start. If Maeda can navigate around Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim, who have hurt him in the past, he can put the Tigers in position to win the first five innings. Tigers -0.5 first five innings (+118 at FanDuel)

• It’s easy to pick on the Marlins’ lackluster offense (second-worst OPS). And while Cubs own the advantage over lefty A.J. Puk on paper, the first-year starter has gradually improved across his first three starts. With rain in the forecast tonight in Chicago, look for a slow start on both sides — at least until both teams get their blood flowing. Marlins vs. Cubs under 4.5 runs first five innings (-135 at DraftKings)

• Michael Conforto is swinging the bat well, hitting safely in five of his last six, including a homer and a double over that span. He also has three hits and zero strikeouts in seven at-bats against Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson. Conforto’s contact profile — including a 16.3% soft contact rate — is even more encouraging than his small but quality sample versus Nelson. Michael Conforto over 0.5 base hits (-204 at Caesars)

• We like Conforto to collect a base knock tonight, but we’re also eyeing a low-scoring affair with Logan Webb facing off against the Dbacks’ Ryne Nelson. Nelson’s 2024 numbers aren’t too hot thus far, but he pitches much better away from the desert. Webb also likes pitching in San Francisco (who wouldn’t?) and kept the snakes in check across four starts in 2023. Diamondbacks vs. Giants under 8 runs (-115 at Caesars)

• The Red Sox are favored on the moneyline, and the 9.5 total suggests they’ll be in position to plate a few runs. We like Rafael Devers to score one of them this afternoon. Guardians starter Carlos Carrasco is loose with the walks, dating back to 2023, and allows louder contact these days. Devers is scuffling at the dish, but is still getting on base at a healthy clip. Rafael Devers over 0.5 runs (-110 at DraftKings)

• We’re circling back to the Motor City with the Tigers’ Kerry Carpenter. The 26-year-old is hitting well overall on the season and has collected a base knock in six of his last seven. Carpenter, a lefty swinger, also owns favorable splits versus right-handed pitching. And finally, he typically slots into the No. 3 or 4 hole, so he figures to receive 4-5 plate appearances. Kerry Carpenter base hit (-180 at FanDuel)

• It’s reasonable to suggest that the Rays will want — perhaps need — length from starter Ryan Pepiot in the series finale against the Angels. The bullpen has been worked across the first three games, and with a three-game grind in the Bronx on deck, the Rays can ill afford to tax their relief corps even further. Pepiot recorded at least 16 outs in two of his three starts, and this is a spot where he may be allowed some extra leash. Ryan Pepiot over 15.5 outs recorded (-130 at DraftKings) 

• The Orlando Magic have been a solid road team this season, covering 23 of their 41 contests away from Disney World. But better offenses have found success against them, especially during the final stretch of the season. Over the last month of action, 7 out of 8 playoff-bound opponents have eclipsed where sportsbooks set Cleveland's team total on Saturday. The Cavs are at home and fully healthy heading into the first contest, and this number is bound to rise. Cavs Team Total over 105.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

• The top-heavy talent on the Phoenix Suns managed to sweep the Timberwolves 3-0 during the regular season, but there's a bit of fake-news involved in those results. Minnesota clearly didn't care about their last battle, they couldn't make a shot in their second affair, and the first matchup was very early in the season. Karl-Anthony Towns has returned and now the Timberwolves are completely healthy, at home, have revenge on their mind, and oh yeah they've been one of the most consistent programs in the NBA all season (3rd in net rating). Timberwolves -1.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

• The Knicks are top-2 in first quarter scoring allowed this season, just 0.3 points behind the mighty Nuggets. New York will enter Saturday with significantly more rest than Philly, having not played since last Sunday. While the 76ers have been on fire (nine straight wins), their battle against Miami was extremely physical and closely fought until the very end. Madison Square Garden will be rocking, and it's not uncommon to see the home-team get the first clean punch in these scenarios. Knicks 1Q -0.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

• Although only with the team for a few months last year, Jalen Brunson led the Knicks in scoring in 9 out of his 10 playoff starts in 2023. He averaged 28.6 ppg. This season, after taking on the role of New York's leader and best scorer, Brunson is averaging 28.7 ppg, an eerily similar stat. Without RJ Barrett this year and without his #2 Julius Randle for the rest of the season, Brunson's role will be larger than ever, starting game one against Philly. J. Brunson over 30.5 pts (-102 at DraftKings)

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is expected to miss the first contest in the Bucks' series against Indiana, and the spread hasn't properly adjusted. Meanwhile, Indiana has transformed into a real contender since trading for Pascal Siakam. They're top-10 in net rating with the association's #2 offense since he joined their squad, and Rick Carlisle's high-flying Pacers have beaten the Bucks in 4 out of 5 games this season. With reports circling about Damian Lillard's dissatisfaction in Milwaukee, it might be time to sell any Bucks' stock. Pacers -1 (-110 at most books)

• Three weekend games: LAL/DEN, DAL/LAC, and IND/MIL all have listed totals at 223.5 or higher. In all three contests, the home team is the slower-paced program. More nerve-racking moments and an uptick in physicality is the brand of postseason basketball. Don't be surprised if all three games and others fall under the listed total this weekend, which will cause major adjustments from oddsmakers as the series trudge on. Lean under in all three games

• The Boston Celtics are the clear #1 team with the best record in the NBA. Much of that success comes from how they start games. Boston blew away all other teams against the spread in the first half this season, covering in 56 out of 82 tries (a 68% cover rate), accumulating 26.5 units. No matter who they face on Sunday, either the Heat or Bulls will be exhausted after two play-in games and only one day of rest in-between. Boston -8 or less in the 1H

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