Bets to Watch in 2 NBA Play-In Games + MLB Insights and Pitching Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Stanley Cup odds at the start of the playoffs

• Top 10 Bets: Memphis’s slowing offense could keep Dallas in the game

• Game of the Day: Heat vs. Hawks for the 8-seed

• Matchups: Current Tigers hit .082 against Royals’ Ragans

• Overtime: First round matchups in the Stanley Cup playoffs

The Stanley Cup playoffs begin tomorrow with a doubleheader on TNT starting at 6pm (Blues vs. Jets followed by Avalanche vs. Stars). With nine teams earning over 101 points, the postseason is poised to be very competitive — which is clear from the current Stanley Cup champion odds.

On FanDuel, the Hurricanes lead the way at +650, followed by the Avalanche (+700), defending champion Panthers (+750), Golden Knights (+900), Oilers (+950) and Jets (+1000), who tallied the most regular season points (116).

In today’s newsletter, Craig gives you his top 10 bets to watch. We also have a preview of the Heat vs. Hawks in one of two play-in elimination games tonight, and we look at how four pitchers match up against the opposition in the day’s MLB action.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Aaron Rodgers recounted his meeting with new Jets coach Aaron Glenn…it went poorly.

Grizzlies have League’s 20th-Rated Offense Since Firing Coach Taylor Jenkins

By Craig Williams

Heat moneyline (+100 at Fanduel)
The Heat and the Hawks split their four matchups, straight-up and against the spread, 2-2. The Heat, however, won and covered the two most recent meetings. There are statistical trends to lend support to the Heat — they finished top six in both offensive and defensive rating across their final 10 regular-season contests. The Hawks played well offensively over that span, but ranked No. 20 in defensive rating. More than metrics and trends though, we’re considering the experience the Heat bring to the equation, even without Jimmy Butler. Bam Adebayo has 69 playoff starts under his belt — including nine in the Finals — and Tyler Herro has over 1,300 minutes of postseason experience.

Heat vs. Hawks over 218.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Both the Heat and the Hawks ended the season playing well offensively, and we’re banking on them continuing to tickle the twine. We’re looking at Trae Young serving as the catalyst for the Hawks, especially after he got ejected from Tuesday’s game and spoke on the refs afterwards. These two teams went over in three of four matchups this season and averaged 222 points over those games (237 points in their two most recent contests). The Hawks’ offensive efficiency was slightly better on the road during the season, but for this particular spot, we expect the Hawks to be able to elevate their game enough to combine with the Heat for the over.

Trae Young over 10.5 assists (-135 at DraftKings)
We’re sticking with Young here as we anticipate him rising to the occasion in this spot. Scoring the rock was a struggle for Young against the Heat in three of four matchups, but he averaged 12.3 dimes, and he dished out 11 or more assists in three of those contests. We mentioned our reasoning behind the confidence we have in Young, but it’s also about his supporting cast. The NBA cliche suggests that the “others” — or the supporting cast — often fare better at home, and that’s a factor in our position here.

Tyler Herro over 35.5 points + rebounds + assists (-125 at ESPNBET)
Herro has been a major catalyst for the Heat of late, particularly during their recent 7-2 stretch, where he is averaging 27.4 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.8 rebounds. And in four games against the Hawks, he’s averaging 36.1 combined across those three categories. As far as individual games, Herro produced enough to reach the over in three of four contests. Finally, we’re selling the Hawks’ current defensive form. They ranked 20th in defensive rating over the final 10 regular season games, and they just allowed the Orlando Magic — hardly an offensive juggernaut — to hang 120 points on them.

Mavericks +6.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
This stance isn’t strictly based on statistics, though we’ll acknowledge some metrics in a bit. First, let’s consider the state of the Mavericks, qualitatively. Their backs are firmly against the wall — and have been ever since Kyrie Irving went down with a torn ACL. They continue to battle nonetheless: In a vacuum, they should’ve fallen out of the play-in tournament altogether. But instead, Anthony Davis made it his mission to return for his teammates, and the Mavericks appear to be playing for one another. It’s the epitome of the “fist being stronger than the five fingers.” Now, that doesn’t mean they’ll prevail in the win-loss column, but Memphis hasn’t been an offensive juggernaut by any stretch — they produced the league’s No. 20 offensive rating since they fired head coach Taylor Jenkins. The Mavs held the Kings to 106 points in their first play-in game, and we expect them to make things challenging for the Grizzlies tonight.

Parlay: Daniel Gafford 1+ block & Dereck Lively 1+ block (-129 at ESPNBET)
We’re leaning into the Mavericks’ defense here, particularly the interior length they feature with Gafford and Lively. Both bigs returned relatively recently, and are currently playing modest minutes. However, the Grizzlies attempted the fourth most two-pointers in the league this season, and were blocked the sixth-most times this season. The Mavericks will go as far as their defense takes them and we expect Gafford and Lively to play a big role in the Mavs’ defensive efforts.

Grizzlies under 113.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
Ja Morant missed practice with his ankle injury, and he’s listed as questionable ahead of tonight’s play-in contest. It may be a stretch to bank on him sitting out, but it’s fair to suggest that he may be less than 100 percent. A less than full-strength Morant is certainly going to hurt his own scoring efficiency, but we’re also considering how it will negatively impact his teammates. As important as Morant’s ankle injury looms, we’re going back to the Mavericks’ defense. Again, it’s no secret that they’re going to lean on their defense in order to advance as deep into the postseason as possible, and if that entails games beyond tonight, it will be because they held the Grizzlies offense at bay.

MLB

Yankees moneyline (-106 at FanDuel)
The Yankees and Rays are playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field, New York’s spring training home, so it’s not quite a true road game for the Yankees. The Yankees enter tonight riding a four-game winning streak, and we’re banking on their continued production at the plate. They have a .352 wOBA over their past four games with six home runs. Meanwhile, the Rays have struggled with a .280 wOBA during their three-game skid. We like the “home away from home” advantage the Yankees have here, in addition to their current form.

Rays +0.5 first 5 innings (-150 at Caesars)
We like the Yankees to win the game, but we have to acknowledge the stellar start to the season the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen is enjoying. He enters tonight’s turn with a 1.85 xERA and 0.73 WHIP. He’s also only allowed one hit in 20 at-bats to current Yankees — that includes Aaron Judge’s 0 for 7 with six strikeouts. Rasumussen has not pitched beyond the fifth inning though, so we’re looking at the first half of this contest to be close, especially if Carlos Rodon struggles again with command.

Mets moneyline (-174 at FanDuel)
The Mets are hosting the Cardinals, who are 1-6 on the road with a -22 run differential in this early juncture of the season. The Mets, meanwhile, carry a +12 run differential at Citi Field, and even though they’re not hitting at the standard we expect them to achieve this season, they’re stingy in the strikeout department. The pitching matchup features David Peterson for the Mets and Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. The redbirds have fared well against left-handers, but they enter tonight’s contest with a .650 OPS on the road. 

Home Team Won All 4 Games in Heat vs. Hawks Series this Season

Heat (37-45, 17-23 Away) vs. Hawks (40-42, 21-19 Home)
7pm on TNT 

• Spread: Hakws -1 (-108), Heat +1 (-112)

  • ATL: 41-42-0, MIA: 38-34-2

  • 75% of the money and 72% of the bets are with Miami

• Moneyline: Hawks -118, Heat +100

• Total (218.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • MIA: 44-39-0, ATL: 50-33-0

Head to Head

• Dec. 28 @ Atlanta: Hawks won 120-110

  • Leading points: Johnson (28), Herro (28)

  • Leading rebounds: Johnson (13), Adebayo (10)

  • Leading assists: Young (15), Herro (10)

• Feb. 24 @ Atlanta: Hawks won 98-86

  • Leading points: Okongwu (17), Wiggins (23)

  • Leading rebounds: Daniels (11), Ware (15)

  • Leading assists: Young (14), Herro (3)

• Feb. 26 @ Miami: Heat won 131-109

  • Leading points: Robinson (24), Daniels (18)

  • Leading rebounds: Adebayo (9), Okongwu (9)

  • Leading assists: Herro (10), Young (8)

• March 27 @ Miami: Heat won 122-112

  • Leading points: Herro (36), Young (29)

  • Leading rebounds: Ware (12), Okongwu (9)

  • Leading assists: Mitchell (6), Young (12)

Ragans has 16 Strikeouts vs. Current Tigers, Who have Just 4 Hits in 59 Plate Appearances

Cole Ragans (Royals) @ Tigers — 6:40pm

• Season: 1-0, 2.28 ERA, 23.2 innings, 18 hits, 6 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 34 K

• Matchup: Current Tigers hitters have 59 plate appearances against Ragans and combine for a .082 average (4 hits, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 10 BB, 16 K)

  • Justyn-Henry Malloy: 1-4, 1 H, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 0 K

  • Spencer Torkelson: 0-7, 1 BB, 3 K

  • Colt Keith: 1-7, 1 BB, 1 K

Zack Wheeler (Phillies) vs. Marlins — 6:45pm

• Season: 1-1, 4.07 ERA, 24.1 innings, 20 hits, 11 ER, 4 HR, 6 BB, 28 K

• Matchup: Current Marlins hitters have 41 plate appearances against Wheeler and combine for a .282 average (11 hits, 2 2B, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K)

  • Jesus Sanchez: 7-19, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K

  • Otto Lopez: 3-6, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

  • Griffin Conine: 0-2, 2 K

Carlos Rodon (Yankees) @ Rays — 7:05pm

• Season: 1-3, 5.48 ERA, 23.0 innings, 14 hits, 14 ER, 5 HR, 12 BB, 28 K

• Matchup: Current Rays hitters have 48 plate appearances against Rodon and combine for a .195 average (8 hits, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 7 BB, 17 K)

  • Yandy Diaz: 4-11, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 3 K

  • Brandon Lowe: 2-8, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 5 K

  • Christopher Morel: 0-7, 3 K

Jacob deGrom (Rangers) vs. Dodgers — 8:05pm

• Season: 0-0, 4.30 ERA, 14.2 innings, 13 hits, 7 ER, 4 HR, 6 BB, 13 K

• Matchup: Current Dodgers hitters have 159 plate appearances against deGrom and combine for a .228 average (33 hits, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 14 BB, 41 K)

  • Freddie Freeman: 16-66, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 8 BB, 20 K

  • Mookie Betts: 2-8, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K

  • Max Muncy: 3-12, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K

In the News 

• ESPN’s Lee Corso is retiring from GameDay after Week 1 of the college football season.

• A Notre Dame QB locked in a battle for the starting job entered the transfer portal.

• The Dolphins GM said the team would consider giving up Tyreek Hill for two first-round picks.

• A look at the first round matchups in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:10pm: Diamondbacks vs. Cubs on MLB Network

• 7pm: Heat vs. Hawks on TNT

• 8:05pm: Dodgers vs. Rangers on MLB Network

• 9:30pm: Mavericks vs. Grizzlies on ESPN

Photo of the Day