Heat Without Butler, Pelicans Without Zion Opens Door for Adebayo, Valanciunas

It’s elimination day in the NBA’s Play-In Tournament, with the Bulls playing the Heat in Miami for the chance to face Boston, and the Kings taking on the Pelicans in New Orleans to see who is heading to Oklahoma City.

NBA.com looked at this season’s overall averages compared to last year’s stats. A few numbers stuck out: Teams scored 114.2 points per game, slightly down from 114.7 last year; the overall free throw rate (24.4 attempts per 100 shots) and turnover rate (13.6 per 100 possessions) were the lowest in NBA history; and offensive rebounding percentage (28.3%) was the highest since the 2014-2015 season.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is tracking what the absences of Zion Williamson, Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier could mean in the play-in games. And on the diamond, Craig is looking at how much Mets starter Sean Manaea could get knocked around by the Dodgers hitters who know him well.

See you tomorrow!

Abe

• The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson tonight, fresh off the former Duke superstar scoring 40 points in the first play-in matchup. That's not good for New Orleans, but it is for Jonas Valanciunas' props. The big-man has averaged 28.8 points/rebounds in the last 6 games without Zion, becoming the central force in their front court to fill the void. With Brandon Ingram off a recent injury and other Pels' scorers struggling from the field on Tuesday, Valanciunas is in a great position to have a big game. J. Valanciunas over 21.5 pts/rebounds (-102 at FanDuel and DraftKings)

• It's no mistake that Keon Ellis, the Kings’ 24-year-old undrafted guard, was on the court for 39 minutes in the first play-in game. The first-year pro is a great story and an even greater contributor lately. Since March, his minutes have steadily been on the rise, and in six games when he's played over 30 minutes, he's averaged 15.6 ppg. Without Malik Monk, Sacramento will continue to need his spark, and it helps that since receiving more minutes (March 1), he's nailing 49% of his shots. K. Ellis over 10.5 pts (-105 at DraftKings)

• Jimmy Butler has missed 22 games this season and the Heat have done okay in these cases, going 13-9 straight up. But the absence of both Butler and Terry Rozier against a sturdy Chicago defense is a huge void for Miami’s offense, which is already ranked in the bottom third in nearly every category. Against an equally vulnerable Bulls' offense and with Miami's ability to turn up their defensive intensity at home, shot-making won't come easy tonight. Bulls/Heat Under 205.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

• Bam Adebayo has been the biggest benefactor when Jimmy Butler misses action, and he'll be even more essential without the scoring prowess of Terry Rozier, too. Since Jan 1, in 14 games without Butler, Adebayo has averaged 33.5 points/rebounds, leading his team in both categories many times. With the home crowd behind him and going up against Nikola Vucevic, who often shies away from contact, this is a plus-matchup and ideal situation for the dynamic Heat center. Adebayo over 32.5 points/rebounds (-108 at DraftKings)

• Coby White had the game of his life against the Hawks, crushing their front court with one drive after another and stacking up 42 points against a Quin Snyder-defense. So then why is his point total at such a mediocre number tonight? Oddsmakers are expecting regression, since White averages just over 19 ppg and he'll be up against one of the most poised and stingy defenses in the NBA, especially in elimination scenarios. C. White under 20.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

• One of the biggest reasons why New Orleans has been able to beat Sacramento five straight times this season is their success against De'Aaron Fox. The Kings' electric point guard is the focal point of their offense, but he's gone just 36/88 (40%) from the field against the Pelicans, struggling to infiltrate his way to the rim like he does so often. In most cases it has crippled the Kings' offense, limiting the team to only 109.2 ppg in five battles. There is little reason for the Pelicans' to change this approach. D. Fox under 27.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

• While the Pelicans' defense proved it has figured out how to stop Sacramento's high-flying offense, the same cannot be said about the matchup on the other side of the court. New Orleans has stacked up 128.2 ppg in five contests against the Kings this season. And even in one game without Zion, the litany of the Pels' shooting options were too much for Sacramento, who gave up 133 points on January 7th. This number is too low. Pelicans' Team Total over 104.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

• The Rays are sending Tyler Alexander to the hill to start Game 1 of their three-game set with the Yankees in the Bronx. Alexander is a pitch-to-contact fly ball pitcher, who is prone to surrendering the long ball. He has allowed a home run in each of this three starts, including two homers in two of them. A cool NYC evening could prevent a slugfest, but the Yankees should do some heavy lifting. Yankees over 4.5 runs (-115 at DraftKings) 

• We’re going to stick with the Yankees and place the focus on lefty Alex Verdugo. He’s slugging .490 in April and has hit safely in five of his last six, a span that includes a pair of games with two doubles. The Yankees lead MLB in walks and are not at risk of swinging through too many of Tyler Alexander’s offerings (in theory at least). If this hypothesis holds true, there will be ducks on the pond for Verdugo, who is a threat to inflict offensive damage. Alex Verdugo over 0.5 RBI (+236 at Caesars)

• Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan has quality strikeout and swing-and-miss numbers on the season to go along with his strong numbers overall. He also owns a a 38.6% strikeout rate against current Tigers hitters, while the Tigers whiff at a 25.8% clip as a team. This isn’t about Ryan’s strikeout prop. But we’re banking on him missing the bats to help the Twins win the hits race against the Tigers and starter Jack Flaherty. Twins most hits (+105 at FanDuel)

• Nolan Arenado is riding a seven-game hitting streak, including three multi-hit performances over that span. He has quality numbers against Brewers starter Freddy Peralta, including four homers in 25 at-bats. Peralta is dealing right now, with a 0.68 WHIP, so we’re not going to be greedy in spite of Arenado’s one-on-one success. Nolan Arenado base hit (-135 at FanDuel)

• It feels like mere weeks ago that Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery were ticketed for multiyear pacts. Snell has struggled out of the gates — similar to 2023 — while Montgomery is making his 2024 debut. Don’t be surprised if Montgomery takes some time to find the degree of sharpness he demonstrated en route to winning the World Series in 2023. Diamondbacks vs. Giants over 8 (-110 at DraftKings)

• We’re picking on Mets starter Sean Manaea and identifying Mookie Betts as the first bully. Betts is crushing lefties this season (1.070 OPS) and owns Manaea in particular (3 HR, .862 SLG, 29 AB). Betts collected a base hit in seven of his last eight, including a five-hit eruption on Tuesday. Manaea will likely perform better than his most recent start (3.2 IP, 6 ER), but Betts is in a great spot. Mookie Betts over 1.5 runs + hits + RBI (-150 at DraftKings)

• Will Smith could be Betts’ partner in crime against Manaea in tonight’s matchup. Like Betts, Smith is demolishing left-handed pitching (1.101 OPS); he also has eight hits in 16 at-bats against Manaea. We discussed Betts above and like his ability to get on base and plate a run. Meanwhile, Smith will likely have the opportunity to drive in Betts — or another Dodger — for an RBI. Mookie Betts over 0.5 runs + Will Smith over 0.5 RBI (+225 at Caesars)

IN THE NEWS