Ryan Garcia Shocks Devin Haney with 3-Knockdown Win in Brooklyn

BROOKLYN, N.Y. — The most exciting event in sports yesterday didn’t finish until early this morning. Ryan Garcia scored three knockdowns against Devin Haney at Barclays Center, winning by majority decision in a fight that didn’t end until after 1am. It was electric from the start, with Garcia coming out swinging as the underdog. It looked as though Haney would survive the initial onslaught, as he calmed things down over the next few rounds, but Garcia regained the edge with a 7th-round knockdown and never really looked back.

Haney (31-1, 15 KOs) was outclassed the second half of the fight and looked as surprised as everyone else at how strong Garcia was round after round. Garcia (25-1, 20 KOs) came into the match with questions about his fitness and mental health, and he wasn’t even eligible to win Haney's WBC junior welterweight title after he weighed in three pounds overweight. None of that stopped Garcia from decisively handing Haney his first loss.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming: In today’s newsletter, Chris is following a trend of home teams starting cold in the NBA Playoffs. In baseball, Malcolm is tracking a great pitching matchup in the Giants/Diamondbacks game. And in soccer, Sam is covering important matches for Liverpool’s Premier League title hopes and Aston Villa’s Champions League dreams.

Abe

• Expectations are sky high for the Celtics this season, especially coming off several years where they nearly made it to the top of the mountain and fell short. With arguably their best roster in decades, the C's must be anxious heading into Sunday. Meanwhile, Miami is back in-rhythm, coming off a dominating performance against Chicago to enter the playoffs. We've seen home teams like Minnesota and New York come out cold after a week of rest. For the value, it’s worth looking at Boston doing the same. Miami wins 1Q, Boston wins full game (+380 at FanDuel)

• Boston blew away all other teams against the spread in the first half this season, covering in 56 out of 82 tries (68% ATS), accumulating 26.5 units. But oddsmakers have caught onto their advantage, since Miami is off just 1 day of rest and in a very difficult spot on the road, making the home-team a 8.5-point favorite in the first half. The Celtics lead the NBA with 62.9 ppg in first halves, and we’re expecting a tired Miami defense in hostile territory. Boston 1H over 58.5 points (-102 at DraftKings)

• The Dallas Mavericks' elevated their defense at the end of the regular season, as they were rated the #1 unit among all NBA teams in the final 15 games. And while their tempo has been on the higher end (7th during the same span), pace is bound to decrease in the postseason. The Clippers' defense hasn't been consistent or particularly impressive for most of the season (16th overall), but Ty Lue and a roster full of tough, two-way players know how to turn it up, too. Not one of yesterday's playoff games eclipsed 220 points. Mavs/Clippers under 223 (-110 at DraftKings)

• If there are any two teams that could defy the regression that happens to most totals in the playoffs, it's the Pacers and Bucks. Milwaukee is without Giannis, which makes their roster smaller and quicker, and Indiana has been the best offense in the NBA over the final 10 games of the regular season. Both teams have been top-6 offensively and top-8 in pace all season, a recipe that resulted in an average total of 254 points per game over five battles. Pacers/Bucks 1Q over 57.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

• What happened most recently in the regular season is usually what shows itself early in the playoffs, which isn't great news for Milwaukee. The Bucks chose to not care about the East's #2 seed, losing 6 out of their final 8 contests, and ranked 23rd in net rating. Giannis won't play Sunday, and Damian Lillard hasn't been shy to discuss how unsettled he's been since joining the team. The Pacers have been at their best to end the season, winners of 6 of their last 8 — the #2 rated team in that span, second only to Denver. Pacers 1H -0.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

• Jonas Valanciunas' props remain way too low. In the Pelicans' first two contests against OKC, Valanciunas averaged 25.5 points/rebounds per game, bringing physicality and moxie against a lighter and more flamboyant Chet Holmgren. Valanciunas only played 11 minutes in their third matchup, so that's irrelevant. In their last six battles without Zion, the big man has averaged nearly 29 points/rebounds per game. He'll be needed early and often against a Thunder squad that loves to attack the front court as much as the Pels do. J. Valanciunas over 20.5 pts/rebounds (-110 at DraftKings)

• The depth of the Pelicans' roster was on full display in their play-in win against Sacramento two days ago, as they came together and shot 52% from the field against a tough defense. Their own defense held one of the NBA's best offenses to just 98 points, too. The OKC Thunder mirror the Kings in many ways; smaller, quicker, predicated by blazing fast, overwhelming offense; all qualities that won't intimidate the more physical Pelicans. OKC is in an advantageous position at home off rest, but this is still too many points. Pelicans +8.5 (-110 at most books)

• The Braves are excelling at the plate, averaging an MLB-leading 10.4 hits per game. They’re up against Rangers starter Michael Lorenzen, who is transitioning back after a long off-season. Lorenzen managed five scoreless innings in his first outing, but it was against a less formidable Detroit lineup (the Tigers average only 7.6 hits per game). Lorenzen's upcoming challenge against Atlanta's robust offense could expose any lingering inconsistencies, and the Braves average 1.6 more hits per game than the Rangers, anyway. Atlanta Braves Most hits (+100 at FanDuel)

• Cristian Javier of the Astros is off to a hot start, with only four earned runs across 23.1 innings and an 18.9% strikeout rate. While his walk rate is higher, at 11.6%, Javier is positioned well against a less threatening Nationals lineup, reinforcing Houston's chances in this matchup. Houston Astros Moneyline (-196 at FanDuel) 

• With the Dodgers scoring an average of 5.4 runs in home games and the Mets scoring 7.1 on the road, the offensive prowess of both teams points to a potentially high-scoring affair. Mets starter Adrian Houser off to a tough start at 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA. Mets @ Dodgers OVER 9 Total Runs (-115 at FanDuel) 

• A’s starter Ross Stripling’s struggles are evident with a 5.32 ERA and a WHIP of 1.65. The Guardians’ Tanner Bibee has a slightly better ERA at 4.82, but similar WHIP issues. The Athletics' batting average of .196 against right-handers underscores their challenges, especially given their strong performance on the run line at home against comparable teams. Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+116 at FanDuel) 

• Yankees pitcher Luis Gil has demonstrated control issues with a 56% strike rate and the highest pitches per plate appearance — at 4.56. With Gil not completing five innings in any start this season and his pitch count being monitored closely, his tendency toward shorter outings seems likely to persist. Luis Gil Under 15.5 Outs (-160 at DraftKings) 

• Merrill Kelly and Jordan Hicks both bring impressive early-season performances into this matchup, with ERAs of 2.19 and 1.57, respectively. Their strong starts and history of limiting runs are reflected in this game having the lowest total on the board for Sunday. Their effectiveness on the mound in the early innings suggests a tight start in a ballpark that is already tough enough to score a lot of runs. Giants vs. Diamondbacks No Runs First Inning (-125 at FanDuel) 

• Sonny Gray's excellent start to the season, showcasing a 0.00 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP across two starts, sets a high benchmark. His advanced metrics, including being in the 83rd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, and Hard-Hit%, indicate sustained performance rather than impending regression. He’s facing Milwaukee, a team he has historically managed well with a 2.82 ERA over 13 starts. Gray’s strong strikeout capability, ranking in the 75th percentile, positions him favorably to exceed the strikeout threshold, especially given Milwaukee's moderate strikeout rate. Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel) 

• Stuttgart need an away win at Werder Bremen to get level on points with 2nd-place Bayern Munich and put pressure on the Bavarians. We’ll be looking for their Guinean striker Serhou Guirassy to score in this game. He’s now on 25 goals in just 23 Bundesliga appearances this season and is playing at an incredible level. What’s even more impressive is that of those 23 games he has managed to score in all but six of them, which shows remarkable consistency. He’s bagged in his last six Bundesliga starts. Serhou Guirassy to score (-110 at Bet365)

• Aston Villa host a Bournemouth team who have picked up just one point in their past two games. Villa won their last game in the Premier League and had a big result in Europe on Thursday, sealing a spot in the semifinals of the Europa Conference League after beating Lille on penalties. They’ve played really well in recent weeks and have far too much quality for a good, but not spectacular, Bournemouth team. Unai Emery has got the good times flowing at Villa Park, and the fans will be in fine voice to aid their team’s push for the fourth Premier League spot and a chance to qualify for the Champions League next season. Aston Villa moneyline (-115 at BetMGM)

• There’s also a chance that we see Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey register another assist. The 26-year old has had a good season so far, starting 18 of his 31 appearances for Villa, and has become a key player in recent months. Bailey has registered nine goals and eight assists so far in the Premier League, but crucially he’s assisted seven goals in his past 15 Premier League games at Villa Park, which is where today’s game will be played. Leon Bailey to get an assist (+300 at Bet365)

• Liverpool are just three points behind leaders Arsenal currently, but will be five behind Man City if they win their game in hand. That makes this game a must-win if Jurgen Klopp’s team want to win the Premier League this season. They’ve failed to win their past two in the league and have slumped, but got a win in Europe on Thursday and face a Fulham team with just one win in the last four. Liverpool cannot afford to lose this game and they need to deliver a good performance to get their title aspirations back on track. Liverpool -1 (+160 at FanDuel)

• Throughout this week the talk around this weekend’s FA Cup semifinals has been one of belief that Coventry City could pull off an upset over Manchester United. It’s been spoken about in the media so much that it barely feels like it would be an upset. The reality is that while United’s form is bad (just three points from the last 12 available in the Premier League), it’s the exact same as Coventry, who have one win and three defeats in the Championship — compared to United’s three draws and one defeat. United have become a laughing stock and Erik ten Hag doesn’t look like he should continue in the role next season, but they are far superior in terms of playing ability and should win this by multiple goals. Man Utd -1 (+120 at BetRivers)

• Brest host Monaco in Ligue 1 in a game that has huge ramifications on who finishes second behind PSG. Brest currently hold the second spot, one point ahead of Monaco, which should mean a tense and hard-fought battle. A game of this magnitude means tensions will be running high and we could see bookings. The standout candidate to get booked is Monaco’s Wilfried Singo who has seven yellows in 21 Ligue 1 games this season. Interestingly with this game being away from home, he’s been booked in five of his past 10 games on the road. Wilfried Singo to get carded (+300 at Bet365)

• We’re looking out for goals in our final pick of Sunday - from PSG and Lyon’s meeting in Ligue 1. We know that PSG score a lot of goals in their home games, and as such there have been Over 3.5 goals scored in 57.1% of their games at Parc des Princes, including four of their past six. Lyon have been amongst the goals recently too. They’ve scored three or more goals in four of their past five in all competitions, and three of their past four games in Ligue 1 have hit the Over 3.5 goal mark. With two teams, and rivals, in fine attacking form, we could be set for a goalfest. PSG and Lyon OVER 3.5 goals (+125 at BetRivers)

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