NBA Playoff Bets to Watch + MLB Pitching Matchups and NFL Futures

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: NFL futures

• Top Bets to Watch: Pistons had 19 turnovers in game 1

• Game of the Day: Nuggets have won 3 straight against Clippers (all at home)

• Matchups: Mets hitters have 312 plate appearances, .270 average against today’s starter

• Overtime: The NBA named its awards finalists

It’s finally NFL Draft week. The Titans are universally expected to pick Miami quarterback Cam Ward at No. 1, and everyone is wondering when the two Colorado stars will go. In light of the draft, we wanted to look at conference championship futures today and see if a draft pick ends up changing the early odds next week. Here’s where FanDuel has each conference now:

• AFC Winner: Baltimore (+360), Buffalo (+370), Kansas City (+400), Cincinnati (+950), Houston (+1300), Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)

• NFC Winner: Philadelphia (+320), Detroit (+500), Los Angeles Rams (+850), Washington (+950), Green Bay (+1000), San Francisco (+1100)

In today’s newsletter, Chris has his bets to watch across the NBA Playoffs, MLB, and NFL Draft and WNBA futures. We also give you a rundown of Game 2 in the Clippers vs. Nuggets series and five MLB pitching matchups.

— Abe Rakov

P.S. Did you see Yankees starter Max Fried lost his no-hit bid in the 7th inning after an error was turned into a hit later in the game?

Detroit Shot 46.9% from 3 and Outrebounded New York in Game 1 Loss

By Chris Farley

Pistons +6.5 (-105 at Bovada, Bookmaker, and Caesars)
Anyone watching the first game of the Pistons and Knicks' series wouldn't think there was much of a difference between the two programs, until the fourth quarter that is. The Pistons were tied or ahead of the Knicks until the final 12 minutes, when the home team outscored the underdog Pistons 40-21. On the night, the Pistons shot a sensational 46.9% from beyond the arc, and they also outrebounded New York and gained more fastbreak points. Too many turnovers (19, New York had 9) and floundering defense in the final quarter meant the Pistons' downfall, but down a game and more desperate to avenge a bad ending stretch, we like J.B. Bickerstaff's roster to respond.

Pistons vs. Knicks under 221.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
If we like the Pistons on Monday, we must be interested in the under. New York was never a consistently effective defense (13th overall), but we know the Pistons, who held their opposition to a 46.2% shooting rate this season (9th), can really put on the clamps. The more experienced Knicks are one of the slowest teams in the NBA, too (26th this season), which we expect to regress after an unusually higher tempo in their opening battle (99 possessions per game). In such an important contest, we can hardly expect the same marks from downtown, either (combined 42.7%). 

Tobias Harris under 15.5 points (-120 at DraftKings)
Harris was one of the marquee scorers for the Pistons in their first postseason test, going 8-13 (61.5%) for 25 points on Saturday, including a sterling 4-5 from beyond the arc. New York's constant offensive pressure (they shot 52.7% in game one) meant that Detroit relied on anyone they could, and it would make sense that an older, more experienced starter might take the lead. Regardless, Harris was hardly the team's stalwart scorer this season, averaging 13.7 points in 73 games this season. And while Harris might continue serving as a dependable member of their offense, the Pistons' typical top-scorers (Cade Cunningham, 26.1, Jaden Ivey, 17.6) will be more poised to take over.

Clippers vs. Nuggets under 218.5 points (-110 at BetMGM and Caesars)
Although Denver ended as the victor, the Clippers shot a ridiculous 51.1% in the first half and 50% from the field for the full game. Denver's effort and pressure increased as the game went on, and they also found plenty of points on the charity stripe, perhaps more what they deserved (they shot 27 free throws compared to LAC's 16). In any case, even after overtime the Nuggets and Clippers combined for only 222 points, despite some brilliant moments from Jokic, Kawhi, and others. The reality is these two rivals match up well and don't mind getting physical, which means scoring will likely be supremely challenged for long stretches. We simply can't anticipate more than 210 points in this case.

Nikola Jokic over 49.5 points + rebounds + assists (-104 at FanDuel)
Watching long stretches of game one, it appeared that the NBA's best player was trying his hardest to stay out of the way. At the end of the first half, Jokic totaled only 11 points, and as a consequence his team faced a four-point deficit. As the game went on he started to contribute more, eventually nearly reaching his norm (Jokic hit 50, but he averages 52.5 points/rebounds/assists per game). Denver just barely pulled off a victory on Saturday, and the big-man's supporting cast barely held up (Jamal Murray was just 7-20, Michael Porter Jr. was just 1-4). The Nuggets' pedestrian 43.6% field goal percentage left much to be desired, and we expect the Serbian to get more aggressive early and lead the charge Monday night. 

MLB

Phillies (+109 at Bookmaker)
It's not easy betting against the Mets this season. They lead MLB in team ERA and at 15-7, they sit atop the NL East standings. On Monday they'll start Tylor Megill (1.40 ERA over 19 innings), who's been impeccable so far. He's also thrown against some of the poorest offenses in baseball: MIN (26th), MIA (16th), TOR (6th), and HOU (21st). In four previous seasons, he has never finished below a 4.00 ERA; we expect negative regression. We expect positive regression from Aaron Nola (6.65 ERA over 21 innings), who last year ended with an impressive 79% left on base percentage. At home the Mets typically thrive (9-1), but we'll go against the grain here. The lowly priced moneyline suggests other sharp-bettors are thinking the same way.

Blue Jays vs. Astros under 7.5 runs (-110 at FanDuel)
The Jays and Astros have been underwhelming through 22 games, each falling short of early expectations. Monday marks a contest where both programs will look better than usual, thanks to who they're sending to the mound. Toronto's Kevin Gausman has a solid 2.49 ERA and sterling 0.71 WHIP over 25 innings, the latter being the best mark in baseball. Houston will counter with Hunter Brown (1.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP over 24 innings), who allows only 0.38 home runs per game. Additionally, over their past five games neither offense has been impressive (TOR averaged 3.9 runs per game, HOU averaged just 2.8). In what should be a slow start, expect a very low-scoring battle of throwers. 

NFL Draft Future

Pick #3: Travis Hunter (+600 at FanDuel)
The NFL Draft is bound to be as zany as ever, since after Cam Ward there's no telling which quarterback will go next. Not to mention, intel about anything beyond the #1 pick remains arcane. Travis Hunter's tape reveals an athlete that's so incredibly gifted it would be hard for any general manager to turn him down. Then again, the most accomplished arm in the Browns' QB-room is 40-year old Joe Flacco. Or, if they decided to draft Abdul Carter, who experts are comparing to Micah Parsons, Cleveland might instantly have the best defensive line in the NFL. Hunter is far from an absolute at #2, which means Big Blue, a team that desperately needs playmakers, would be in prime-position.

WNBA Future

Caitlin Clark to win 2025 WNBA MVP (+240 consensus)
It feels very square to take a bet on Caitlin Clark to win MVP when she's already the favorite, and to be clear it's wise to wait on this bet. The ebbs and flows of a season are likely to offer better value opportunities. Regardless, she's the favorite for a reason. It's hard to believe 2024 was her rookie campaign, a year where she proved doubters like legend Diana Taurasi wrong, averaging 19.2 points and 8.4 assists per game and immediately adjusting to pro-ball. Following the Olympic break, she led the Fever to a 9-5 record and playoff berth. In the offseason the Fever picked up veteran forwards DeWanna Bonner and Natasha Howard, who will command attention away from the former Iowa sharpshooter. Year two is bound to be explosive.

Home Team has Won 6 of 7 Games in Clippers vs. Nuggets Series

No. 5 Clippers vs. No. 4 Nuggets
10pm on TNT
(DEN leads 1-0)

• Spread: Clippers -1.5 (-110), Nuggets +1.5 (-110)

  • LAC: 47-35-1, DEN: 38-44-1

  • 56% of the money is with the Clippers but 58% of the bets are with Denver

• Moneyline: Clippers -118, Nuggets +100

• Total (218.5): Over -112, Under -108

  • LAC: 40-42-1, DEN: 48-34-1

Head to Head

• April 19 @ Denver (Game 1): Nuggets won 112-110 (OT)

  • Leading scorer: Jokic (29), Harden (32)

  • Leading rebounds: Jokic (9), Zubac (13)

  • Leading assists: Jokic (12), Harden (11)

• Jan. 8 @ Denver: Nuggets won 126-103

  • Leading scorer: Murray (21), Powell (30)

  • Leading rebounds: Jordan (9), Zubac (8)

  • Leading assists: Murray (9), Harden (4)

• Dec. 13 @ Denver: Nuggets won 120-98

  • Leading scorer: Murray (20), Porter Jr. (16)

  • Leading rebounds: Jordan (9), Zubac (13)

  • Leading assists: Westbrook (5), Harden (6)

• Dec. 1 @ Los Angeles: Clippers won 126-122

  • Leading scorer: Harden (39), Jokic (28)

  • Leading rebounds: Harden (9), Jokic (14)

  • Leading assists: Harden (11), Jokic (11)

• Oct. 26 @ Denver: Clippers won 109-104

  • Leading scorer: Powell (37), Jokic (41)

  • Leading rebounds: Zubac (15), Jokic (9)

  • Leading assists: Harden (16), Murray (5)

Current Guardian Hitters Combine for a .359 Average Against Yankees’ Schmidt

Clarke Schmidt (Yankees) @ Guardians — 6:10pm

• Season: 0-0, 1 start, 4.67 ERA, 5.2 innings, 4 hits, 3 ER, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 K

• Matchup: Current Guardians hitters have 43 plate appearances against Schmidt and combine for a .359 average (14 hits, 3 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K)

  • Jose Ramirez: 5-11, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Steven Kwan: 4-10, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Kyle Manzardo: 2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI

Aaron Nola (Phillies) @ Mets — 7:10pm

• Season: 0-4, 4 starts, 6.65 ERA, 21.2 innings, 27 hits, 16 ER, 4 HR, 9 BB, 25 K

• Matchup: Current Mets hitters have 312 plate appearances against Nola and combine for a .270 average (74 hits, 12 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 33 RBI, 38 BB, 75 K)

  • Pete Alonso: 17-52, 3 2B, 6 HR, 12 RBI, 5 BB, 15 K

  • Starling Marte: 11-33, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 10 K

  • Juan Soto: 10-38, 3 2B, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 15 BB, 9 K

  • Brandon Nimmo: 13-54, 1 3B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 13 BB, 20 K

Spencer Schwellenbach (Braves) vs. Cardinals — 7:15pm

• Season: 1-1, 2.55 ERA, 4 starts, 24.2 innings, 16 hits, 7 ER, 3 HR, 5 BB, 22K

• Matchup: Current Cardinals hitters have 30 plate appearances against Schwellenbach and combine for a .400 average (12 hits, 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 0 BB, 8 K)

  • Alec Burleson: 4-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI

  • Brenan Donovan: 3-5, 1 RBI

  • Wilson Contreras: 1-6, 1 RBI, 4K

Hunter Brown (Astros) vs. Blue Jays — 8:10pm

• Season: 2-1, 1.50 ERA, 4 starts, 24.0 innings, 15 hits, 4 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 22 K

• Matchup: Current Blue Jays hitters have 33 plate appearances against Brown and combine for a .250 average (8 hits, 1 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB, 8 K)

  • Anthony Santander: 3-9, 1 2B, 3 K

  • George Springer: 2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 K

  • Bo Bichette: 0-5, 1 BB, 1 K

Robbie Ray (Giants) vs. Brewers — 9:45pm

• Season: 3-0, 4.19 ERA, 4 starts, 19.1 innings, 15 hits, 9 ER, 4 HR, 15 BB, 21 K

• Matchup: Just three current Brewers hitters have faced Ray, combining for 21 plate appearances and a .105 average (2 hits, 2 BB, 5 K)

  • William Contreras: 0-2, 2 K

  • Rhys Hoskins: 1-6, 1 BB, 1 K

  • Christian Yelich: 1-11, 1 BB, 2 K

In the News 

• The NBA announced its awards finalists, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo named the top three for the league’s MVP.

• Former Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava is officially transferring to UCLA.

• After Memphis suffered the fifth-worst playoff loss in NBA history, Ja Morant said "We will never play that bad again.”

• Milwaukee set a franchise record with nine steals yesterday — and did it in just four innings.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 6:40pm: Padres vs. Tigers on FS1

• 7pm: Canadiens vs. Capitals on ESPN (followed by Avalanche vs. Stars at 9:30pm)

• 7:30pm: Pistons vs. Knicks on TNT

• 10pm: Clippers vs. Nuggets on TNT

Photo of the Day