Top-4 Seeds Start 8-0 in the NBA Playoffs, Look for More Defense Today

Home teams went 8-0 in Game 1s of the NBA Playoffs (7-1 against the spread), and most matchups weren’t particularly close. Yesterday’s nightcap was the most thrilling of the weekend, with the Thunder beating the Pelicans 94-92 behind 28 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Sunday’s lowlight was brought to you by the Mavs, who scored 8 points in the second quarter in their loss to the Clippers.

In other NBA news, the league released the finalists for seven awards. Luka Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Nikola Jokic are up for MVP, Victor Wembanyama is in the top three for both defensive player of the year and rookie of the year, and Mark Daigneault (Oklahoma City), Chris Finch (Minnesota), and Jamahl Mosley (Orlando) are vying for coach of the year.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is looking for solid defensive performances in the NBA Playoffs and is down on both current and former Lakers. And in baseball, Craig is tracking Marcell Ozuna and Trea Turner’s hot streaks at the plate.

Abe

• The Orlando Magic aren’t getting enough credit defensively heading into Game 2. While the Magic lost Game 1, 97-83, Orlando still held the Cavaliers to 102.1 points per 100 possessions and added nearly 19% of turnovers. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers held the Magic to 86.3 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 37.2%. Both defenses totally deserved that low-scoring game in Game 1. I’d expect both defenses to play very well in Game 2. Magic vs. Cavaliers UNDER 203.5 (-115 at ESPNBet)

• The Cavaliers can’t play much better than they did in Game 1. That said, the Magic added more steals and matched the Cavaliers on the offensive glass. Orlando even got to the foul line nine more times than the Cavaliers in Game 1. The Magic will be prepared heading into Game 2, knowing exactly what needs to be done to get the win. Therefore, they should be ready to go for the first quarter. Orlando Magic +2.5 First Quarter (-120 at FanDuel)

• In five games this season, the 76ers haven’t scored more than 104 points against the Knicks. It’s unlikely either team gets 100 in tonight’s battle. Ultimately, the Knicks won Game 1 after adding 50.9% of offensive rebounds. With Joel Embiid’s injury status, it makes sense. But it’s still super rare for any team to add that many offensive rebounds in a game. Both teams didn’t turn the ball over at a high rate but did get to the foul line a lot on Saturday. However, if the Knicks can keep Joel Embiid off the foul line, they’ll have the best chance at winning. That’s ultimately the whole game plan. 76ers vs. Knicks UNDER 208 (-110 at Hard Rock)

• The Denver Nuggets got to the foul line just six times in their entire Game 1 matchup against the Lakers. Yet, the Nuggets still defeated the Lakers 114-103 and covered the series' first game. The main reason the Nuggets won was due to a low turnover rate. The Nuggets turned the ball over just 6.5% of the time. That allowed them more possessions. The Nuggets took 102 field goals to the Lakers’ 79. When you take 23 more field goals than the other team, you will likely win by double-digits. Denver Nuggets -7.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

• Darius Garland typically destroys the Magic. Garland averaged 26.7 points per game in three regular season games on 50.9% from the field. However, he scored just 14 points on 6-for-11 from the field in 32 minutes in Game 1. That wouldn’t be enough for his points total tonight. Although I’m looking for the Under to hit in the game, the Magic will likely allow Garland to get more involved offensively if that means taking the ball out of Donovan Mitchell’s hands. Darius Garland OVER 15.5 Points (-120 at DraftKings)

• Josh Hart isn’t the No. 1 scoring option on the Knicks. He’s not even the second or third. As a matter of fact, Hart scored just 9.4 points per game in the regular season despite averaging 33.4 minutes per game. While Hart stepped up in Game 1 to score 22 points in 42 minutes, he hit a circus shot and nailed some big baskets late in the game. But the ball was only in his hands due to Jalen Brunson’s off night. Don’t expect Brunson to have too many more off nights. His second half of the regular season was MVP caliber. Josh Hart UNDER 13.5 Points (-118 at DraftKings)

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope shot 36.4% from the field in Game 1 against the Lakers. However, he still scored 12 points thanks to a 4-for-10 shooting night from downtown. KCP hadn’t shot 10 threes in any game during the regular season. Therefore, don’t expect the volume to stay where it was in Game 1. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope UNDER 10.5 Points (+105 at DraftKings)

• There are reasons to suspect a pitcher’s duel when the Blue Jays and Royals kick off their series in Kansas City. Jays’ lefty Yusei Kikuchi will toe the rubber against the Royals’ Brady Singer. Both have pitched well to start the season, but Kikuchi has been particularly dominant in April (1.04 ERA, 25 K, 17.1 IP), including two quality performances versus the Yankees. Blue Jays vs. Royals under 8.5 (+105 at Caesars)

• The Athletics are visiting the Bronx for a four-game set. The Yankees appear as if they’re ready to get on another roll after winning three of their last four, while the A’s have dropped five of six. Lefty JP Sears takes the hill for the A’s in the opener against Carlos Rodon. Sears was stellar in his last two turns, but his track record against the Yankees suggest the streak could end this afternoon. Yankees -1.5 vs. Athletics (-114 at FanDuel)

• The Mets can be forgiven for laying a dud on Sunday in Los Angeles after they clinched the three-game series on Saturday. Keaton Winn will start for San Francisco, and he’s no Tyler Glasnow. We’re not expecting offensive firepower from the Mets or Giants, who will face off against lefty Jose Quintana. It’ll be a cool, humid night in San Francisco, the type of conditions that require teams to scratch and claw for runs. Mets vs. Giants under 8 (-110 at DraftKings)

• The Padres are only .500 on the season, but they have a chance to change that when they hit the road for a four-game set at Coors Field against the Rockies, who have the second-worst record and run differential in the league. San Diego will send Dylan Cease to the hill against Colorado’s Austin Gomber. Cease has a 1.50 ERA in 18 April innings; meanwhile, Gomber doesn’t miss bats, and current Padres hitters own an .837 OPS against him. Padres -1.5 vs. Rockies (-120 at DraftKings)

• We’re piggybacking on what looks like a Padres spot and eyeing the hits column. San Diego has the clear advantage behind starter Dylan Cease, who can be expected to miss more bats than Gomber. And Gomber’s reliance on pitching to contact is another big reason we’re tracking the Padres to outpace the Rockies in total hits. Padres most hits (-195 at FanDuel)

• Marcell Ozuna owns a 1.241 OPS in April and 1.117 mark on the season. He has recorded a hit and an RBI in nine of his last 12 games. Some of the hitters ahead of Ozuna have yet to fire on all cylinders, but there’s enough on-base ability at the top of the order to feel good about Ozuna and the Braves against Marlins left-hander Ryan Weathers. Marcell Ozuna base hit + RBI (+125 at DraftKings)

• Trea Turner is 5 for 9 with a homer against Reds flamethrower Hunter Greene. But more than the tiny sample, we especially like the way Turner is performing at the dish right now. He’s riding a 10-game hitting streak — his soft contact rate is only 11.8% over that span — and he’s reached base multiple times in seven of his last eight. The Phillies are on a roll, winning their last six, and figure to have confidence at the plate as a team. Trea Turner over 0.5 runs (-125 at DraftKings)

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