Road Teams Look to Bounce Back in the NBA Playoffs After Starting 0-11

Home teams in the NBA Playoffs continued their undefeated run and are now 11-0 (8-3 against the spread) heading into tonight’s games. Knicks guard Josh Hart had a breakout performance at home in Madison Square Garden, averaging a double-double with 21.5 points and 14 rebounds a game against the 76ers, who are now down 0-2 in the series.

During the regular season, Hart averaged just over nine points and eight rebounds, but he became a more active part of the Knicks’ offense over the last month. He’s shooting over 50% from three to start this series (8 for 15), so it’s no wonder the ball has been in his hands in key moments of the game more often than usual.

In today’s newsletter, Chris is looking for Tyrese Haliburton to come back from a quiet game 1 and for the Mavs to come out with a sense of urgency. And on the diamond, Jack is tracking Mookie Betts against a pitcher he’s batting .500 against, and thinks everyone is still overrating the Astros.

Abe

• The Suns started off hot in the 1st quarter of game one, going 12-22 from the field and taking a one-point lead against the T-Wolves. After a sterling 12 minutes, the Phoenix offense struggled in Minnesota, going just 21-53 (39%) from the field for the remaining three quarters. Although credit should be given to the T-Wolves' defense, the Suns' offense is top-5 in nearly every major shooting category and will need to be closer to their norm to avoid going 0-2. Suns Team Total over 104.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

• Game two often brings an intensity beyond what players experience in the remainder of a playoff series because of how desperate the loser of game one will be. Phoenix cannot afford to go down 0-2 against a squad as proficient as the T-Wolves, nor can they allow the home team to gain an early lead. Minnesota can settle into their stifling style of defense with a lead, something Phoenix experienced in game one and will be extra-motivated to avoid again. Suns 1Q alt line -0.5 (+114 at FanDuel)

• Jusuf Nurkic is the lone big-body on a Phoenix Suns' squad that has a very porous front court. Against the physical, two-man tandem of Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, not to mention other imposing dudes like Naz Reid, it won't be easy sledding at the rim for Nurkic in this series. Still, the 7-foot, 290-pounder will take it personally that Phoenix got out-rebounded 52-28 on Sunday, and he averages 11 rebounds per game this season. Nurkic over 10.5 rebounds (+102 at DraftKings)

• During the in-season tournament, two hyper-fueled offensive teams battled it out in the semifinals, but unlike their typical form, the circumstances forced the game into some low-scoring quarters. That's the kind of pressure and intensity the playoffs bring, just like we saw in game one. Without Giannis and expecting Damian Lillard to cool off after an all-world performance in the first half of game one, this total remains too high. Pacers/Bucks under 223.5 (-110 at most books)

• One of the most surprising aspects of game one between Indiana and Milwaukee was the play of Tyrese Haliburton, a first time All-Star this season and the focal point of the Pacers' many wins against the Bucks this year. He only shot 7 times and scored 4 points in game one, seemingly handing over the reins to Pascal Siakam (25 FGA, 36 points in game one). Halliburton has averaged 27 ppg against Milwaukee this season. Haliburton over 19.5 points (+105 at DraftKings)

• The Dallas Mavericks looked lost after the first quarter of game one, managing an unbelievably low eight points in the second quarter and allowing the Clippers to take a 26-point lead at the end of the first half. They started to rediscover their offense later, outscoring the home team 67-52 in the final two quarters, but it wasn't nearly enough. Dallas has been one of the most potent offenses to end the regular season, and they cannot afford another low-scoring first half. Mavs 1H over 55.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

• In March, the Dallas offense came together and put out some of its best performances of the season, ranked in the top 5 as they elevated their position in the Western Conference. In their final 10 contests, they ascended to a top-3 defense, showing for a second straight season that they know how to elevate their tenacity on that end of the floor when it's needed. Despite a terrible first half, they still only lost by 12 points and they dominated the final two quarters. That momentum and spirit should carry into Tuesday. Mavs -2.5 (-110 at most books)

• Tanner Houck has struggled with his control in the majors, but he’s completely turned that around in 2024. Through four starts, the Boston Red Sox starter has surrendered only two walks in 26.2 innings of work. He’s been filling up the zone and challenging hitters all year, ranking second among 134 qualified pitchers in walk rate (1.9%) and fourth in zone rate (56.7%). The Cleveland Guardians rank third in the league in swing rate and 27th in walk rate, so they won’t be looking for free passes against Houck. Tanner Houck under 1.5 walks (-130 DraftKings)

• Marcus Stroman’s game plan this season (planned or not) has been to live outside of the strike zone and force opposing hitters to chase. The New York Yankees starter has the highest out of zone rate (61.8%) among qualified pitchers this year, and his 25% whiff rate is on pace to be the second-best mark of his career. The good news for Stroman is the Oakland Athletics rank dead last in MLB in whiff rate, strikeout rate, and chase contact rate. This is a perfect matchup for his style of pitching. Marcus Stroman over 5.5 Ks (-108 FanDuel)

• Sportsbooks are still overrating the Houston Astros and underrating the Chicago Cubs. The Astros are 7-16 because they have the second-worst team ERA in baseball, and that likely isn’t going to change soon. Houston starter J.P. France is 0-2 with a 7.08 ERA and a .368 wOBA in four starts. Current Cubs hitters are batting .375 with a .530 wOBA in 19 plate appearances against France, as they pounced on him for nine hits and six earned runs in their lone matchup last season. Chicago also has the better bullpen and the home-field advantage in this matchup. The Cubs shouldn’t be underdogs here. Cubs moneyline (+100 FanDuel)

• Royals starter Michael Wacha has fanned at least four batters in all four of his starts this season so this number may seem low, but we’re still looking at the under because of the matchup. In 83 combined plate appearances against Wacha, current Toronto Blue Jays hitters have a .310 expected batting average, a .376 xwOBA, and a minuscule 13.6% strikeout rate. The Blue Jays have the third-lowest chase rate and the fourth-lowest whiff rate in MLB this year, so this is a good spot to fade Wacha’s strong start. Michael Wacha under 3.5 Ks (+125 DraftKings)

• Mookie Betts has been a tough out all season long (and all career long for that matter). The Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder is batting .355 with a 1.103 OPS through 24 games, and he already has seven multi-hit games. In 14 career at-bats against Washington Nationals starter Patrick Corbin, Betts is batting .500 with three singles, three doubles, and a home run. He went 5-5 the last time Corbin took the mound against the Dodgers. Mookie Betts over 1.5 hits (+145 DraftKings)

• There’s no hotter lineup in baseball right now than the Baltimore Orioles. Over the last 15 days, the Orioles rank first in MLB in runs (79), hits (135), batting average (.287), and OPS (.858). This is a great matchup against Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning, as current Baltimore hitters are batting .326 with a .398 wOBA in 50 plate appearances against the right-hander. On the other side, Orioles starter Grayson Rodriguez is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.167 WHIP, and he gave up just one earned run against the Angels earlier this season. Orioles first five innings -0.5 (-115 DraftKings)

• Speaking of the Orioles, this is the perfect team to target with a home run prop because Canning is giving up the third-highest fly ball rate and the 13th-highest barrel rate in MLB this season. The wind will also be blowing out to right-center field at Angel Stadium during the game. We’re looking at Colton Cowser, who has the best slugging percentage in the league against right-handers among hitters with at least 40 at-bats. Cowser is on fire with six home runs and a 1.229 OPS over the last 15 days, and this is a good price. Colton Cowser to hit a home run (+560 FanDuel)

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