Celtics Still Double-Digit Favorites with Tatum Doubtful + 2 NFL Draft Bets to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Big transfer portal moves didn’t move betting markets much

• Top 10 Bets: NBA Playoffs + NFL Draft bets to watch

• Game of the Day: NBA’s two best scoring defenses face off in East 2 vs. 7 series

• Matchups: Braves hitters have .344 OBP against Cardinals’ Mikolas

• Overtime: Are the Cowboys up to something?

It’s becoming transfer portal silly season, as UCLA and Tennessee basically traded quarterbacks. Each school ended up paying the QBs less NIL money than they would have if the players would have stayed put. So who won here?

The Bruins landed star quarterback Nico Iamaleava, but the move didn’t change the market much: UCLA is still +18000 at FanDuel to win the Big Ten, behind 12 schools. Tennessee got UCLA’s Joey Aguilar — who just transferred to Westwood after this past season — and didn’t fall much according to the sportsbook, as the Volunteers (+1300) have the 7th-best odds to win the SEC now.

In today’s newsletter, Jack gives you 10 bets to watch across the NBA, MLB, golf and NFL Draft. We also break down stats for the Magic vs. Celtics game and have five pitcher vs. batter matchups from today’s MLB slate.

— Abe Rakov

Pritchard Averaged 19 Points in Past 10 Games without Tatum (Listed as Doubtful)

By Jack Dougherty

Payton Pritchard over 11.5 points (-125 at FanDuel)
Pritchard came off the bench to play 24 minutes and score 19 points in Game 1, and he should be even busier in Game 2 with Jayson Tatum listed as doubtful. In his past 10 games without Tatum on the court, Pritchard has averaged 19.0 points on 15.2 field-goal attempts. The Celtics rely on Pritchard to create offense when Tatum and Jaylen Brown are off the court, and the Magic will live with him beating them as opposed to the other weapons Boston has at its disposal.

Fred VanVleet under 13.5 points (-106 at DraftKings)
This is just a brutal matchup for VanVleet. The veteran guard went 4-19 and scored only 10 points against the Warriors in Game 1, and most of those shots were contested jumpers late in the shot clock. VanVleet has now gone under this line in eight straight games against Golden State while averaging just 9.1 points per game. Ime Udoka surely doesn’t want him attempting another 19 shots in Game 2, so FVV should have a smaller offensive role against a team that knows how to shut him down. 

MLB

Phillies moneyline (-118 at BetMGM)
The Mets took the first two games of this series, but this is a good spot for the Phillies to steal the finale. Zack Wheeler, after struggling in back-to-back starts, got back on track with 13 strikeouts and only two earned runs in his last outing against the Marlins. He’s held current Mets hitters to a .238 xBA and a .314 xwOBA in 259 plate appearances against him. As weak as Philadelphia’s offense has looked lately, it ranks second in MLB in OPS (.799) and wRC+ (120) against left-handed over the last 15 days. 

Pete Alonso over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+110 at DraftKings)
Alonso shouldn’t be priced at plus-money here even with a stud like Wheeler on the mound. The Polar Bear is batting .373 with a 1.186 OPS and 18 RBIs against right-handed pitching this month, and he’s cleared this line in 12 of his past 19 games. Alonso doesn’t even have a bad track record against Wheeler, batting .270 in 42 career plate appearances against him. Consider the discount here. 

Royals vs. Rockies over 8.5 runs (-118 at FanDuel)
It’s never a bad idea to target an over with German Marquez on the mound. The Rockies right-hander has given up 12 earned runs in his past 5.1 innings of work, and he ranks in the eighth percentile in pitching run value and the 18th percentile in hard-hit rate this season. The Royals could get close to this total themselves, but even if they don’t, Michael Lorenzen is also struggling with seven earned runs and four walks in his past two outings. 

Jack Kochanowicz under 3.5 strikeouts (-105 at DraftKings)
We’ve had success fading Kochanowicz with his strikeout props this season, and there’s no reason to stop now. The Angels right-hander has managed only two strikeouts in his past 9.1 innings on the mound, and he now ranks in the fifth percentile in strikeout rate (11.2%) and the 11th percentile in whiff rate (18.2%). The Pirates also have just a 20.2% K rate against righties in the last week.

NFL Draft

Total quarterbacks selected in first round: Over 2.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
No matter how weak the quarterback class is, teams always reach for QBs in the first round. Cam Ward is essentially a lock to go No. 1 overall to the Titans, so we just need two more QBs to land in the first round to hit this prop. It would be a shock if Shedeur Sanders fell to the second round, too, so that’s already two quarterbacks off the board. There have been multiple reports on teams such as the Giants and Browns looking to trade back into the back half of the first round to snag a QB. Jaxson Dart is -350 to go in the first round, and teams seem to have Tyler Shough rated higher than most mock drafters. 

Colston Loveland first tight end selected (+220 at DraftKings)
Are we sure Tyler Warren is guaranteed to be the first tight end off the board on Thursday night? The Penn State product has great athleticism and a unique skill set, but Loveland might be ahead of him on many teams’ draft boards. The Michigan standout set the single-season school record for catches (56) and receiving yards (582) by a tight end last year, all while dealing with atrocious quarterback play. Warren didn’t test at the NFL Scouting Combine or Penn State’s pro day, so he might’ve been hiding a slow 40-yard dash. This market is closer than the odds suggest.

Golf: Zurich Classic

Billy Horschel/Tom Hoge top-20 finish (+110 at DraftKings)
Horschel and Hoge shouldn’t be priced at plus-money in this market. This is one of Horschel’s best tournaments on the PGA Tour schedule, as he’s recorded a win and four more top-20 finishes in his past six starts at the Zurich Classic. There’s just something about team events that brings out the best in him. His partner, Hoge, is in great form with four straight top-20 finishes, and he’s gained strokes on approach and from putting in all four. This duo is playing well and has the experience we’re looking for at this event. 

Tournament matchup: Alejandro Tosti/Joe Highsmith > Thorbjorn Olesen/Matt Wallace (+105 at DraftKings)
We have a case of the wrong team favored in this matchup. Tosti is playing excellent golf right now with finishes of T2, T12 and T5 in his past three starts. He’s a great partner to have in team events because he bombs it off the tee and is a streaky putter. Highsmith has struggled in his past three starts, but he finished T22 or better in four of his previous five, including a win at the Cognizant Classic. Olesen has finished 36th or worse in four of his five PGA Tour starts this season, and Wallace has missed five cuts in nine starts.

Banchero’s 36 Points in Game 1 Couldn’t Keep Magic Close

No. 7 Magic vs. No. 2 Celtics
7pm on TNT
(BOS leads 1-0)

• Spread: Celtics -10.5 (-115), Magic +10.5 (-105)

  • BOS: 39-43-1, ORL: 42-41-1

  • 70% of the money and 69% of the bets are with Boston

• Moneyline: Celtics -560, Magic +420

• Total (197.5): Over -106, Under -114

  • BOS: 37-46-0, ORL: 35-49-0

Head to Head

• April 20 @ Boston: Celtics won 103-86

  • Leading scorer: White (30), Banchero (36)

  • Leading rebounds: Tatum (14), Carter Jr. (13)

  • Leading assists: Holiday (5), Wagner (5)

• April 9 @ Orlando: Magic won 96-76

  • Leading scorer: Wagner (23), Scheierman (15)

  • Leading rebounds: Wagner (8), Queta (7)

  • Leading assists: Banchero (6), Pritchard (10)

• Jan. 17 @ Boston: Celtics won 121-94

  • Leader scorer: Tatum (30), Anthony (23)

  • Leading rebounds: Tatum (6), Carter Jr. (9)

  • Leading assists: Brown (6), Banchero (4)

• Dec. 23 @ Orlando: Magic won 108-104

  • Leading scorer: da Silva (18), Brown (35)

  • Leading rebounds: Bitadze (9), Brown (9)

  • Leading assists: Suggs (5), Brown (4)

Brewers Batters Don’t Have Much Experience Against Giants’ Webb and Sport 20% K Rate

Miles Mikolas (Cardinals) @ Braves — 12:15pm

• Season: 0-2, 7.64 ERA, 4 GS, 17.2 innings, 21 hits, 16 runs, 0 HR, 7 BB, 11 K

• Matchup: Current Braves hitters have 124 plate appearances against Mikolas and combine for a .344 OBP (38 hits, 11 2B, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 5 BB, 23 K)

  • Marcell Ozuna: 5-13, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 5 K

  • Matt Olson: 4-12, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 1 K

  • Ozzie Albies: 5-19, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 2K

Carlos Rodon (Yankees) @ Guardians — 1:10pm

• Season: 2-3, 4.34 ERA, 5 GS, 29.0 innings, 15 runs, 5 HR, 16 BB, 37 K

• Matchup: Current Guardians hitters have 123 plate appearances against Rodon and combine for a .350 OBP (30 hits, 7 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 13 BB, 17 K)

  • Carlos Santana: 15-39, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K

  • Jose Ramirez: 10-48, 4 2B, 1 3B, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 4 K

  • Steven Kwan: 1-8, 1 RBI, 2 K

Zack Wheeler (Phillies) @ Mets — 1:10pm on MLB Network

• Season: 2-1, 3.73 ERA, 5 GS, 31.1 innings, 13 runs, 5 HR, 6 BB, 41 K

• Matchup: Current Mets hitters have 259 plate appearances against Wheeler and combine for a .325 OBP (60 hits, 10 2B, 3 3B, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 23 BB, 53 K)

  • Juan Soto: 13-51, 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 13 BB, 15 K

  • Brandon Nimmo: 13-46, 3 2B, 1 3B, 2 Hr, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 8 K

  • Pete Alonso: 10-40, 2 2B, 3 RBI, 2 BB, 12 K

Logan Webb (Giants) vs. Brewers — 9:45pm

• Season: 2-1, 2.40 ERA, 5 GS, 30.0 innings, 24 hits, 9 runs, 1 HR, 7 BB, 38 K

• Matchup: Current Brewers hitters have 34 plate appearances against Webb and combine for a .265 OBP (5 hits, 1 3B, 2 Hr, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 7 K

  • Brice Turang: 2-6, 1 3B, 1K

  • Rhys Hoskins: 1-6, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 K

  • Christian Yelich: 1-8, 1 BB, 3 K

JP Sears (Athletics) vs. Rangers — 10:05pm

• Season: 2-2, 3.13 ERA, 4 GS, 23.0 innings, 20 hits, 8 runs, 3 HR, 5 BB, 18 K

• Matchup: Current Rangers hitters have 118 plate appearances against Sears and combine for a .263 OBP (25 hits, 4 2B, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 6 BB, 26 K)

  • Marcus Semien: 6-22, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 3 K

  • Corey Seager: 2-13, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K

  • Leody Taveras: 2-15, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 6K

In the News 

• Jerry Jones said the Cowboys are working on "pretty substantive trades."

• Arkansas’ athletic director wants his school’s NIL collective to try and collect a buyout after a quarterback it paid decided to transfer.

• New Pelicans executive Joe Dumars said team owners didn’t tell him he must trade Zion Williamson.

• What to watch for in Inter vs. AC Milan today.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1:10pm: Phillies vs. Mets on MLB Network

• 3pm: Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace on USA (or Inter vs. AC Milan in Coppa Italia action on Paramount+)

• 7pm: Magic vs. Celtics on TNT

• 7:30pm: Heat vs. Cavaliers on NBA TV

• 9:30pm: Warriors vs. Rockets on TNT

Photo of the Day