Jayson Tatum Looks to Continue Hot Start Against the Heat

The NBA Playoffs are tightening up, with the Pacers and Mavericks winning on the road and the Timberwolves needing an 11-0 4th-quarter run to put away the Suns last night. Pascal Siakam continues to put up unreal numbers for the Pacers: He followed up his 36-point, 13-rebound performance in Game 1 with 37 points, 11 rebounds, six assists and no turnovers in the Game 2 win.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is tracking the Heat to lose (but by less) and the Pelicans/Thunder matchup to be a defensive showdown. In baseball, Malcolm is covering the Rays’ Amed Rosario’s hot start and the Giants’ Blake Snell’s continued struggles. And on the pitch, Sam is looking for a low-scoring Merseyside derby and a motivated Kylian Mbappé and PSG.

Abe

• The Celtics earned Game 1 with a 20-point victory over the Heat. But I’m not ready to give up on the Heat just yet. It’s unlikely the Heat will win the game outright, but they did some good things offensively in Game 1. The Heat shot a 55% effective field goal percentage and only turned the ball over 12.5% of the time. They’ll have to adjust by adding more offensive rebounds and foul shots. If they can do just one of those two, they could cover against the Celtics. Heat +14.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• The Heat will only cover this game by matching the Celtics’ offense. It’s a tall task, too. The Celtics added 129.5 points per 100 possessions against the Heat in Game 1 and shot a 61.7% effective field goal percentage. Therefore, if you like the Heat to cover, the Over 202.5 makes sense in this one. Heat vs. Celtics OVER 202.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• The Pelicans were terrible offensively against the Thunder in Game 1 of the series. They shot a 44.3% effective field goal percentage and rarely got to the foul line. For the Pelicans, getting to the foul line is rare. But that pushed New Orleans to just 97.9 points per 100 possessions in Game 1. Still, the Pelicans managed to earn 35.6% of offensive rebounds against Oklahoma City. Those offensive rebounds and extra possessions could keep them hanging around against the Thunder tonight. Pelicans +8 (-114 at BetRivers)

• The Thunder weren’t way better than the Pelicans, scoring just 101.1 points per 100 possessions. Oklahoma City shot just a 49.4% effective field goal percentage in the first game, which is also below average. The Thunder also didn’t get to the foul line often and earned just 21.3% of offensive rebounds. Neither team reached 100 in Game 1. It’ll likely be the same outcome in Game 2. It’s clear this series will be a defensive battle. Pelicans vs. Thunder UNDER 210.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• Fresh off a triple-double in Game 1, Jayson Tatum is likely feeling good heading into tonight’s game. Pundits have called out Tatum about not being a leader countless times over the years. It looks like he took that personally. While he shot under 40% from the field, Tatum crashed the glass and got others involved to help lead the Celtics to that Game 1 victory. Tatum hauled in 10 rebounds and earned 10 assists in the 20-point win. Those stats helped him combine for 20 rebounds + assists. We could see more of that tonight. Jayson Tatum OVER 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (+126 at FanDuel)

• In the regular season, Brandon Ingram added nine assists against the Thunder in one game. He also tallied nearly six assists per game this season. However, New Orleans struggled to find much offense against the Thunder after Ingram shot just 5-for-17 from the field and only had three assists. In the grand scheme of things, Ingram has hit at least six assists more times than not this season. With plus-money odds, the value is there. Brandon Ingram OVER 5.5 Assists (+115 at BetRivers)

• Herbert Jones added seven rebounds in 33 minutes for the Pelicans in Game 1. But again, just like Ingram, Jones’ numbers didn’t match his regular season stats. Jones only added 3.6 rebounds per night for the Pelicans. He typically hangs out around the perimeter on both ends of the floor. With Jonas Valanciunas dominating the glass and Larry Nance Jr. putting in work on the boards off the bench, there likely won’t be many opportunities for Jones in Game 2 on the boards. Herbert Jones UNDER 4.5 Rebounds (-155 at DraftKings)

• The Diamondbacks and Cardinals aren’t exactly playing good baseball, but Arizona is better on paper. The Cardinals were swept over the weekend by Brewers and can’t produce much offense at all right now. Gibson has given up four-plus runs in two of his four starts this year, including four runs on six hits to the Diamondbacks a few weeks ago. He’s also given up seven walks in his last two games. Jordan Montgomery has looked good in his debut for the Diamondbacks this season, going six innings and giving up only one earned run. The Cardinals are batting .200 against lefties this year, which could be a problem against Montgomery. Arizona Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Moneyline (-122 at FanDuel) 

• Giants pitcher Blake Snell’s challenging start to the season, with an 11.57 ERA and three losses, could lead to problems against the Mets. Sean Manaea is coming off a solid performance for the Mets against the Dodgers, where he allowed just two runs over five innings. Snell’s recent outing, yielding five runs against the Diamondbacks with only nine whiffs on 40 swings, highlights his current struggles. Manaea is the steadier pitching could give the Mets an edge. Mets Moneyline (+110 at FanDuel) 

• Snell has had difficulty lasting five innings in his starts this season. A high 4.05 pitches per plate appearance and control issues has hurt his ability to pitch deep into games. Facing a Mets lineup that excels against left-handed pitching—evidenced by a 121 wRC+ and .771 OPS—and shows disciplined at-bats with a low chase rate, it will be challenging for Snell to get to the sixth inning.  Blake Snell Under 17.5 Outs (-108 at Caesars)

• Cubs starter Jameson Taillon demonstrated control and effectiveness in his season debut, allowing only one run over five innings against the Marlins, a significant improvement over his inconsistent 2023 performance. Facing Houston’s Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled at 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA and a 2.29 WHIP over just seven innings, the Cubs are positioned well. Cubs Moneyline (-108 at FanDuel) 

• The Seattle Mariners, buoyed by starter Bryce Miller's standout performances and a bullpen ranked third in MLB for ERA, head into their matchup looking to even up the series against the Rangers. Miller's impressive streak—yielding just one earned run over his last three starts—complements Seattle's overall pitching strength. Texas’s ongoing injury challenges could hinder their performance against a Seattle team rolling out a formidable pitcher. Mariners @ Rangers Under 9 Total Runs (-110 at FanDuel)

• Amed Rosario continues to impress at the plate for the Tampa Bay Rays, with a .359 batting average and a .526 slugging percentage. He’s on a 14-game hitting streak and has shown consistent ability to connect powerfully, including multiple extra-base hits in recent games. Facing Detroit's pitching, which has been inconsistent (starter Jack Flaherty is 0-1 with a 4.44 ERA), Rosario could significantly contribute to the Rays' offensive efforts. Amber Rosario 1.5 Total Bases (+114 at Caesars) 

• Despite recent struggles, Garrett Crochet's advanced metrics suggest a strong rebound — with an xERA and xBA in the 89th and 91st percentiles, respectively. His exceptional Whiff Rate and Strikeout Rate further underscore his potential against a Minnesota lineup that has historically struggled against him, with a 57.1% Strikeout Rate in previous matchups. Garrett Crochet Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel) 

• The market is telling us that we should see goals in Everton vs Liverpool. In terms of Total Goals, we have Over 2.5 at a best price of -188. But let’s review the numbers: Does this make sense? Liverpool are the third-highest scoring team in the Premier League, but Everton’s 34 goals is the second-fewest of any team this season. It’s hard to see their blunt attack scoring against Liverpool’s backline, who have allowed the second-fewest goals in the league. That means we’d need Liverpool to bag all three. They did that against Fulham last time out, but that was the first time they’d managed to score three or more goals in five games. In five meetings across the past three seasons in this matchup, we’ve seen Overs land just once. Follow the data. Under 2.5 goals (+160 at DraftKings)

• There’s no doubt about it, Manchester United are in crisis. Needing penalties and a disallowed goal to beat Championship club Coventry in the FA Cup is shambolic, and the manner of that performance is hugely worrying for the team’s fans. They allowed a team from the division below them to have 18 shots, five of which were on target. That bodes well for Sheffield United — in particular their English and Chilean forward Ben Brereton Diaz. He’s done well since arriving in the Steel City in January, with four goals in nine league games for the club. He’s also had at least one shot on target in eight of those nine games. Ben Brereton Diaz Over 0.5 shots on target (+110 at Bet365)

• Crystal Palace come into the match on the back of two consecutive wins for the first time this season, but they’ll be hard pushed to beat Newcastle despite Oliver Glasner’s hard work. Those Crystal Palace wins have alleviated any risk, no matter how small it was, of being sucked into the relegation fight. Newcastle won their last game in style, thrashing Spurs 4-0, and come in with 11 days of rest — which should be the difference maker. They’ve had consecutive clean sheets and the extra recovery time was really needed given the depth of their injury crisis. Even with some of their best players still missing, they will come into this match fresh. Newcastle to win (+145 at FanDuel)

• Anthony Gordon has been Newcastle’s best player this season. He’s caused chaos on the left flank, scoring 10, assisting on eight more, and getting his first senior international call-up. He gets fouled on average 1.9 times per game, so the player on Crystal Palace’s right flank needs to be careful. That player is Daniel Munoz, who arrived from Genk in January. In 11 games since signing in South London, he’s picked up three yellow cards. +275 is a good price for him to get another. He’s committed two or more fouls in four of his past five home games and now faces a foul-magnet in Gordon. If he gives up multiple fouls then it’s likely he’ll get booked too. Daniel Munoz to be shown a card (+275 at Bet365)

• We saw Hwang Hee-chan start the season in electric form for Wolves. He scored 11 goals by the new year and was one of the key reasons why the Midlands’ club had done so well. Since the turn of 2024 he’s just played four times in the Premier League, thanks to an international callup to the Asian Cup for South Korea and an injury that kept him out for six weeks. Now he and Wolves have a home tie against a Bournemouth team who have given up seven goals in their past three games. If we look across Hwang’s season, we can see he’s been efficient at home, scoring in 50% of the Premier League games he’s played at Molineux. Against a poor Bournemouth backline he has every chance of keeping his good home performances coming. Hwang Hee-chan to score (+220 at BetRivers)

• PSG are 11 points ahead of Monaco in Ligue 1 with just 15 available to play for. Barring an historic collapse the title is theirs again. It could even happen today if they win against Lorient and Monaco fail to beat Lille. That should mean we see PSG focused and go out to win with style. They’ve won three of their past four in Ligue 1, and in each of those victories they’ve won by two or more goals. No team has allowed more goals than 17th-place Lorient this season, who have conceded 55 in just 29 games. They have also failed to pick up a win in their last five as they get closer to being relegated. PSG -1 (+100 at FanDuel)

• Kylian Mbappe is the best player in Ligue 1 and leads the goalscoring table by seven goals. With 24 league goals on the season he has over double his nearest PSG teammate. He’s done all of that in just 26 games, of which four were from the bench. He’s also been lethal on the road, finding the back of the net in 10 of his past 14 games away from home. And remember, Lorient have conceded more goals than anyone in the league. Kylian Mbappe to score (-150 at Bet365)

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