Will the Magic and Cavs Get Over 200 Points Tonight and How Many People Will Watch the NFL Draft?

The NBA has three Game 3s tonight, but more eyes will be on the NFL Draft in Detroit. Last year’s first round was watched by an average audience of 11.4 million viewers. The most-watched game of the NBA playoffs so far was the Nuggets/Lakers game on ABC on Saturday, which averaged 5.65 million viewers. With all three NBA games on cable tonight and the draft being broadcast on ABC, ESPN and NFL Network, it won’t be a fair fight. But an open question is whether tonight’s draft will get a bigger audience than last year’s NBA Finals, which averaged 11.64 million viewers on ABC.

In today’s edition of the newsletter, Chris is looking for the Cavs/Magic series to stay low scoring and for home teams to get off to quick starts (all three are down 0-2). In MLB, Craig is tracking Blue Jays’ starter Jose Berrios’s strong beginning to the season and sees a lot of opportunity for Brewers shortstop Willy Adames in Pittsburgh.

Abe

• The Magic have blossomed into a formidable team, one that was hoping it could end its 14-season drought of no playoff series wins. So far they've been dominated in two games at Cleveland, only scoring 169 total points. Fortunately for Orlando, all of their offensive statistics improve at home, where they score four more ppg on average. The Magic are the best home favorite in the NBA (19-6 ATS), and their defense rises from 9th to 2nd at the Kia Center. If they're going to win one, this is the spot. Magic -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings and Caesars)

• Markets can't afford to list a total too low in respect to how the modern NBA is played. Regular season totals averaged 214.2 ppg this season, but that doesn't mean the market isn't making a mistake with tonight’s game in Orlando. There is almost no evidence to suggest that more points will be scored than what we've seen so far: The Magic’s defense is better at home, the Cavs' defense is better on the road, and the only home-team slower-paced than Orlando is New York. Cavs/Magic under 199.5 (-110 at FanDuel and Caesars)

• Monday was a true heartbreaker for the 76ers. They had a 101-96 lead with 47 seconds left in the game only to let New York find a way to come out the victor. Joel Embiid was visibly upset afterward, swearing that his team would still win the series. The Wells Fargo Center will be rocking and Philly is no stranger to starting hot, owning one of the NBA's best first half ATS records this season (47-37-1). 76ers 1H -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• Astoundingly, Tyrese Maxey averages more points per game at home and with Joel Embiid in the lineup (26.7). While the reigning MVP will likely still take the lion's share of shot attempts for the 76ers, he also draws attention away from the NBA's Most Improved Player — a guy who's scored 27 points or more in four out of his five matchups against the Knicks this season. Maxey's opportunities will continue to be there. T. Maxey over 26.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

• The 76ers have done a good job defending Jalen Brunson this season, limiting New York's star guard to only 22.5 points per game in six contests. Brunson will continue to serve as Philly's focus when he has the ball, especially in a pivotal battle that profiles to be the Knicks' toughest challenge. The Sixers' ability to defend Brunson will only be enhanced by the return of De'Anthony Melton, one of the NBA's elite perimeter defenders. J. Brunson under 28.5 points (+102 at DraftKings)

• Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic tends to do his best work in the biggest games, which are usually the most challenging games. When the Nuggets' offense is struggling it's Jokic that takes over and imposes his will. If any game checks out as an opportunity for the Lakers to bring intensity, at home and down 0-2, it's this one. Game three won't be a cake-walk, and the dynamic Serbian will be needed more than usual. N. Jokic over 27.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

• The Lakers assume their fastest tempo at home in the 1st quarter (a 103.76 rating), a method they use to overrun their opponent from the get-go. After two disappointing losses at Denver, the Lakers are fired up and finally in front of their fans, an opportunity to set the tone and make Denver play their brand of basketball. L.A. is 2-0 in the first quarter in this series, and now they're in a more advantageous position. Lakers win 1Q (-135 at DraftKings)

• Freddy Peralta is who the Brewers want on the hill with a series split at their fingertips. He has generated a game score of 69.0 or better in three of four starts, misses bats (12.55 K/9), and is stingy with free passes (1.52) and home runs (0.76). Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds owns the best numbers against Peralta, but he’s struggling at the dish. Brewers -1.5 (+135 at Caesars)

• The Phillies are playing well, back-to-back losses to the Reds notwithstanding. They’ll eye the series split behind Zack Wheeler, who enters Thursday with four quality starts out of five and a 10.91 strikeout rate. He has two games of 10-plus punchouts, while the Reds whiff at a 27.7% rate against right-handers. This is a spot where we may not see an abundance of contact from the home side. Phillies ML (-156 at FanDuel)

• Brewers shortstop Willy Adames has hit safely in nine of 12 contests with a .417 wOBA over that span. He has success against Pirates starter Mitch Keller, connecting on two doubles and a homer in 17 at-bats. He also owns a .367 OBP on the season, so he’s getting on base even when he’s not connecting with a base hit. We’re looking for him to sprinkle some love throughout the boxscore as he gets involved in the action today. Willy Adames over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI (-115 at DraftKings)

• It’s becoming easy to pick on the Chicago White Sox, who have been dreadful this season. That’s especially the case when they send right-hander Michael Soroka to the hill. He’s surrendered a home run in each of his five starts, failed to advance beyond the fifth inning in four out of five turns, and has more walks than strikeouts. The Twins are no juggernaut themselves, but the White Sox own the league’s worst run differential, so the Twinkies may look like one in comparison. Michael Soroka over 4.5 hits allowed (-145 at DraftKings)

• Current Texas Rangers hitters own a collective .842 OPS against Seattle starter Luis Castillo. Texas is also top 10 in OPS versus right-handed pitchers at this early juncture of the season. Southpaw Andrew Heaney will take the hill against the Mariners, who have not hit lefties well so far. But Heaney’s season has consisted of four rough starts, so we anticipate some offensive production from both sides. Mariners vs. Rangers over 8.5 (-115 at Caesars)

• Strikeouts may be difficult to come by for the Royals’ Cole Ragans. The Blue Jays have a tidy 16.7% whiff rate against lefties. Meanwhile, Toronto is giving the ball to Jose Berrios, who has been sharp to start the season. He has an 0.85 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and is riding a streak of three straight 65+ game scores. Ragans will likely improve upon his recent disaster (1.2 IP, 9 H, 7 ER), but Berrios has only surrendered 11 hits over his last 19.2 innings. Blue Jays most H (-105 at FanDuel)

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been good but not great to begin his MLB career. He’s toeing the rubber against the Washington Nationals, who enter the contest ranked seventh in both contact rate and OPS vs. right-handers. That serves as a mild concern for Dodgers backers, considering opponents have made quality contact against Yamamoto when they’re not whiffing. According to statcast, Yamamoto is allowing a 54.4% hard hit rate and 90.4 mph average exit velocity. Yoshinobu Yamamoto under 6.5 strikeouts + over 8.5 total runs (+188 at FanDuel)

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