NFL Draft Analysis (Sanders is Favored to Go 1st Today) + Bets to Watch in the NBA Playoffs

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Best players still on the board in the NFL Draft

• Top 10 Bets: Timberwolves have won 4 straight at home against Lakers

• Game of the Day: Giannis averaged 35 points and 15 rebounds through 2 games

• Matchups: Aaron Judge has 5 HR against tonight’s starting pitcher

• Overtime: Analysis from the first round of the NFL Draft

New Jaguars general manager James Gladstone made a statement in his first NFL Draft in charge, as the 34-year-old executive traded up to the 2nd pick to take the most talented all-around player in the draft, Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Gladstone gave up his first and second round picks this year and a 2026 first round pick to move up from the No. 5 spot to grab the generational, two-way talent.

Hunter’s Colorado teammate, Shedeur Sanders, wasn’t selected on day one of the draft even after the Giants traded to get into the back half of the first round — they went with Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart with the 25th pick after the Steelers decided against filling their signal caller void with the 21st pick (Pittsburgh drafter Oregon DT Derrick Harmon).

There has only been one quarterback taken in the second round in the past three drafts (the Titans took Will Levis in 2023), but Sanders is the favorite (-170) to be picked first with the 33rd pick — currently held by the Browns. According to ESPN, Sanders will be the eighth-best player available when round two begins at 6pm ET today.

Michigan cornerback Will Johnson is ESPN’s best available player left, followed by Marshall edge Mike Green, South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori, Boston College edge Donovan Ezeiruaku, Toledo defensive tackle Darius Alexander, Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson and East Carolina cornerback Shavon Revel Jr. Along with Sanders, high-profile quarterbacks Jalen Milroe (Alabama), Will Howard (Ohio State), Quinn Ewers (Texas) and Tyler Shough (Louisville) are still available.

In today’s newsletter Craig gives you his top 10 bets to watch. We also have a preview of Game 3 in the Pacers vs. Bucks series, where Milwaukee is looking to avoid going down 0-3. And we look at how five pitchers match up against opposing batters in our MLB insights.

— Abe Rakov

Banchero Scored 36 and 32 Points in First 2 Games of Series, Tatum Remains Doubtful

By Craig Williams

Bucks -2.5 alternate spread (-156 at FanDuel)
This is a season-saving spot for the Bucks, who are down 0-2. The good news is they’ve won — and covered — each of their past three home tilts with the Pacers. The Pacers have had the Bucks’ number overall of late, dating back to their playoff series in 2024, so we’re giving them some extra respect here with the alternate spread. However, at least from a theoretical perspective, if there’s a game the Bucks will win, it’s Game 3 tonight when they have desperation and an amped crowd on their side.

Bucks over 117.5 points (-108 at DraftKings)
We’re not banking on the Bucks winning on the strength of their defense in this case. They ranked 23rd in defensive rating over their final 10 regular-season games, but No. 1 in offensive rating. Even though the Bucks finished under this number in Game 2, their improvement from Game 1 was encouraging. And they scored at a higher clip and played more efficiently on the offensive end at home. Another encouraging sign is Damian Lillard playing 37 minutes. He was only 4 for 13 from the field and 2 for 8 from three, but the combination of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Lillard should be able to lead the Bucks to a strong offensive showing at Fiserv Forum.

Giannis Antetokounmpo over 52.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at DraftKings)
We’re leaning on Antetokounmpo to play an instrumental role in the Bucks’ efforts to get on the board in the series. He’s been dominant in the scoring column and on the glass — he’s averaging 35 and 15 in two games— and he handed out seven dimes in Game 2. We like him to remain active in the assists department too, particularly at home and with Damian Lillard having a game under his belt. There are few players in the league with the tenacity and physicality of Antetokounmpo, and we expect him to power the Bucks to a victory with another dominant performance.

Magic +1.5 first quarter (-125 at ESPNBET)
The Magic are clear underdogs in the series overall and on an individual game basis, but we still expect them to throw everything they have at the Celtics in front of their home crowd. The Magic posted better records — straight-up and against the spread — at home, in addition to playing stingier defense. The status of Jayson Tatum remains an important factor after the Celtics star missed Game 2 with a bruised wrist. Our position doesn’t hinge on Tatum being active, but if he’s still limited to any degree, we like it to work in Orlando’s favor — at least early in the contest.

Points scored: Paolo Banchero -3.5 vs. Jayson Tatum (-110 at DraftKings)
We like Banchero to continue putting the Magic on his back on the offensive side of the floor, and we’re banking on him outperforming a fellow Dukie in the scoring column. The Magic need Banchero to lead the scoring charge more than the Celtics need Tatum thanks to the support the latter has, even if it’s on the road. Banchero’s recent production suggests he’s up for the task. He performed better offensively on the season, and he poured in 36 and 32 points across the series’ first two games. Tatum, meanwhile, scored 17 points in Game 1 before missing Game 2 with a bruised wrist. Even if he returns for Game 3, it’s reasonable to suspect he’ll be less than 100 percent, further paving the way for Banchero to cover the spread against Tatum.

Timberwolves moneyline (-150 at Fanatics)
The Lakers had no choice but to throw their best at the Wolves in Game 2, lest they hit the road down 0-2. The Wolves have won each of their past four home meetings with the Lakers. And even though it must be noted that the Lakers didn’t have Luka Doncic in the fold at that point, we’re still bullish on the Wolves in front of their home crowd. The Lakers performed worse in the offensive and defensive efficiency departments on the road this season, while the Wolves naturally played better offensively at home. Concerns continue to linger regarding the level of the Lakers’ play, and it’s unlikely they have the opportunity to muck the game up like they did in Game 2.

MLB

Yankees vs. Blue Jays over 5.5 runs first 5 innings (-108 at FanDuel)
Tonight’s matchup hardly screams “pitchers’ duel”. Berrios enters the contest with a 5.02 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and advanced metrics that further support his early season struggles. Making matters worse for Berrios is the .323/.402/.646 line current Yankees hitters have against him across 99 at-bats. Berrios has struggled on the road for his career, and that includes Yankee Stadium, where he has a 6.05 ERA across eight starts. We expect Carlos Carrasco to contribute to a high-scoring start to the game as well. He’s doing everything you don’t want a pitcher to do — surrender walks, homers, and hard contact while failing to miss bats.

Aaron Judge 4+ total bases (+145 at DraftKings)
Judge has been white-hot this season, and especially over the Yankees’ past 10 games, a stretch over which they’re 7-3. He’s batting .500/.568/.711 across 44 plate appearances. His full-season numbers are nearly as impressive, and his advanced metrics communicate that he’s simply annihilating the baseball. Perhaps even more impressive — if that’s possible — is his history versus Berrios, against whom he has five homers in 34 at-bats. Judge certainly doesn’t need extra help at the moment, but Berrios may provide it anyway — he’s carrying a 1.88 HR/9 into the start while allowing opponents to slug .509 against him.

Nationals under 3.5 runs first 7 innings (-110 at DraftKings)
Mets starter Kodai Senga has turned in three straight scoreless starts, spanning 17.2 frames. He has a 1.02 WHIP and 2.86 FIP over that span as well, so he isn’t getting by on good fortune. Senga isn’t blowing away opposing lineups with a surplus of punchouts, but that’s not a problem against a Nats team that is stingy in the strikeout department anyway. Look for Senga to miss bats in the moments that he needs to — he has created plus-value with multiple offerings, including his “Ghost Fork” — and induce weak contact en route to another quality outing.

Nationals +1.5 (-115 at Caesars)
We’re taking a bit of a qualitative approach to this play, and anticipating a competitive showing from the Nats, who are fighting to remain out of the NL East cellar. Still, as well as the Mets have played, it can be difficult to bully division rivals — the Mets’ sweep of the Phillies notwithstanding. The Mets have won seven in a row, but the streak came at Citi Field. They’re 6-6 on the road so far while the Nats are 7-4 at home. We’re also considering the opportunity a team has to experience a bit of a letdown in this spot. It can be easy to come out a little sluggish after sweeping your chief rival entering an off-day. 

Siakam and Haliburton Each Earned Double-Doubles in Game 2 Against Bucks

No. 4 Pacers vs. No. 5 Bucks
8pm on ESPNU/NBA TV
(IND leads 2-0)

• Spread: Bucks -5.5 (-110), Pacers +5.5 (-110)

  • MIL: 44-40-1, IND: 37-44-3

  • 65% of the money is with Milwaukee but 57% of the bets are with Indiana

• Moneyline: Bucks -220, Pacers +184

• Total (230.5): Over/Under -110

  • MIL: 44-40-1, IND: 46-37-1

Series Stats

• April 22: Pacers won 123-115 at Indiana (Game 2)

  • Pacers

    • Leading scorers: Siakam (24), Haliburton (21), Nembhard (17)

    • Leading assists: Haliburton (12), Nembhard (6), McConnell (4)

    • Leading rebounds: Siakam (11), Haliburton and McConnell (5)

  • Bucks

    • Leading scorers: Antetokounmpo (34), Portis (28), Lillard (14)

    • Leading assists: Antetokounmpo and Lillard (7), Prince (4)

    • Leading rebounds: Antetokounmpo (18), Portis (12), Kuzma and Lillard (3)

• April 19: Pacers won 117-98 at Indiana (Game 1)

  • Pacers

    • Leading scorers: Siakam (25), Turner (19), Nembhard (17)

    • Leading assists: Haliburton (12), Nembhard and McConnell (5)

    • Leading rebounds: Siakam and Haliburton (7), Nesmith (6)

  • Bucks

    • Leading scorers: Antetokounmpo (36), Green (15), Trent Jr. (14)

    • Leading assists: Porter Jr. (5), Prince and Rollins (3)

    • Leading rebounds: Antetokounmpo (12), Portis (8), Porter Jr. (5)

Benintendi is 13-25 with 2 Home Runs and 10 RBIs Against A’s Severino

Taijuan Walker (Phillies) @ Cubs — 2:20pm on MLB Network

• Season: 1-1, 2.29 ERA, 4 starts, 19.2 innings, 15 hits, 5 ER, 2 HR, 8 BB, 16k

• Matchup: Current Cubs hitters have 102 plate appearances against Walker and combine for a .363 OBP (28 hits, 7 2B, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 9 BB, 21 K)

  • Jon Berti: 7-19, 6 K

  • Dansby Swanson: 4-15, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Ian Happ: 1-12, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K

Jose Berrios (Blue Jays) @ Yankees — 7:05pm on MLB Network

• Season: 1-1, 5.02 ERA, 5 starts, 28.2 innings, 28 hits, 16 ER, 6 HR, 13 BB, 24 K

• Matchup: Current Yankees hitters have 112 plate appearances against Berrios and combine for a .402 OBP (32 hits, 5 2B, 9 HR, 19 RBI, 13 BB, 28 K)

  • Aaron Judge: 13-34, 2 2B, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 6 BB, 6 K

  • Anthony Volpe: 4-13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

  • Paul Goldschmidt: 2-12, 6 K

Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks) vs. Braves — 9:40pm on MLB Network

• Season: 1-3, 5.60 ERA, 5 starts, 27.1 innings, 26 hits, 17 ER, 5 HR, 13 BB, 29 K

• Matchup: Current Braves hitters have 85 plate appearances against Gallen and combine for a .282 OBP (21 hits, 5 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 3 BB, 18 K)

  • Austin Riley: 5-13, 1 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 4 K

  • Ozzie Albies: 4-14, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K

  • Matt Olson: 3-15, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 5 K

Luis Severino (Athletics) vs. White Sox — 10:05pm

• Season: 1-3, 3.31 ERA, 5 starts, 32.2, 24 hits, 12 ER, 4 HR, 10 BB, 22 K

• Matchup: Current White Sox hitters have 69 plate appearances against Severino and combine for a .464 OBP (24 hits, 4 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 8 BB, 10 K)

  • Andrew Benintendi: 13-35, 4 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K

  • Michael A. Taylor: 5-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI

  • Luis Robert Jr.: 3-8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 K

Paul Skenes (Pirates) @ Dodgers — 10:10pm on MLB Network

• Season: 2-2, 2.87 ERA, 5 starts, 31.1 innings, 21 hits, 10 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 30 K

• Matchup: Current Dodgers hitters have 34 plate appearances against Skenes and combine for a .294 OBP (8 hits, 1 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 10 K)

  • Teoscar Hernandez: 3-5, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB

  • Shohei Ohtani: 2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K

  • Freddie Freeman: 0-6, 1 K

In the News 

• CBS Sports graded every pick in the first round.

• How do the Jaguars plan to use Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball?

• The Giants might have gotten a franchise player in Abdul Carter.

• Cleveland’s Evan Mobley was picked as the NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:20pm: Phillies vs. Cubs on MLB Network

• 7pm: Celtics vs. Magic on ESPN (or Capitals vs. Canadiens on TNT)

• 8pm: Pacers vs. Bucks on ESPNU and NBA TV (or Hurricanes vs. Devils on TBS)

• 9:30pm: Lakers vs. Timberwolves on ESPN

• 10pm: Kings vs. Oilers on TNT

Photo of the Day