Bucks Defense Aims to Slow Down Tonight's Game Against Pacers

The NBA Playoffs got more interesting last night, except in LA. With the Magic blowing out the Cavs in Orlando and the 76ers using a 43-27 third quarter to beat the Knicks, we’re seeing the difference being at home can make in the NBA. Other than for the Lakers, who fell behind 0-3 to the Nuggets and have no hope in sight.

In the NFL Draft, six quarterbacks were chosen in the first 12 picks, and the first 14 selections were offensive players. The draft went basically as expected, except nobody can figure out why the Falcons created a QB controversy by drafting Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. or why Buffalo traded their pick to the Chiefs to allow the two-time defending Super Bowl champs to add explosive University of Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy.

On to today’s newsletter, where Chris is looking for Kyrie Irving to get opportunities with the Clippers needing to focus on Luka Doncic, and has lost faith in the Suns. In baseball, Jack likes both pitchers facing off in San Diego and thinks we shouldn’t forget about Marlins second baseman Luiz Arraez.

• The NBA market has teeter-tottered in the Bucks-Pacers series. Now it's taken a strong position on the home team. Indiana as a 5-point home favorite makes them anywhere from a 2-3-point favorite on a neutral site, a designation they haven't earned just yet. With or without Giannis, Milwaukee has a roster with seasoned playoff experience and they know how to step up in tough spots. In the end, the number is the most important thing, and this is too much inflation. Bucks +6 (-110 at DraftKings)

• Damian Lillard is getting no shortage of shot attempts, averaging 22.5 in two games, and is clearly the Bucks' chosen one without Giannis. While Lillard's extra attention isn't necessarily a bad thing for Milwaukee, their over-dependence didn't seem to help in game two. After Siakam and the Pacers ran over the Bucks on Tuesday, expect their offensive game plan to look different. That'll reduce Lillard's point-total. D. Lillard under 31.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

• Doc Rivers gets a lot of criticism these days, but the man can still coach up a defense. Milwaukee's improvement on the defensive end has been stark since he took over, earning top-10 marks in opponent three-point and effective field goal percentages this season. They also play notably slower (ranked 15th). They were pitiful in game two, allowing a 55.6% field goal and 44% three-point rate. Milwaukee's aim will be to slow this game down, and we know they're capable. Bucks/Pacers under 222 (-109 at BetRivers)

• Kawhi Leonard didn't look right in his first game back. Shooting just 7/17 from the floor and not hitting a single three-pointer (0-5), Leonard lacked explosiveness and aggression. His defense lagged in spots, and when the game allowed he seemed to be resting between possessions. Knee inflammation continues to be an issue, which makes life hard for a basketball player. This is a rather presumptuous line. K. Leonard under 22.5 points (-122 at FanDuel and DraftKings)

• Kyrie Irving may think the Earth is flat (ahem...) but he's also one of the most gifted scorers in NBA history. At home he's one of the most prolific scorers in the association this season, averaging 27 ppg. Luka Doncic put on a show in game two, carrying the Mavs to a win, so it makes sense that the Clippers will make a few necessary adjustments. Kyrie Irving is Luka's #2, but he can assume #1 duties at any time — and this profiles as a game where he'll need to. K. Irving over 24.5 points (-111 at FanDuel)

• The Phoenix Suns are always dangerous according to public perception, but much of that doesn’t pan out. In the final month of the regular season, they were the 25th-best offense at home, a pitiful rating considering the importance of March and April basketball. At home and off two embarrassing losses, one might think this is their spot to show up. But Minnesota's physicality has proven too much for the Suns, who fold when they can't get off clean shots. When their sharpshooters struggle, they can't survive. Timberwolves ML (+150 at Bet365, DraftKings, BetMGM, ESPNBet)

• While we like the T-Wolves to win, the Suns are at home, which means finding a rhythm is an easier and more familiar process. The first quarter of game two was one of the weaker 12 minutes of basketball we've ever seen, but Phoenix had plenty of opportunities. They just missed a ton of jump shots, free throws, and even dunks (yikes). They looked nervous, but the welcoming confines of a home crowd will mean at least a few more shots made. Suns 1Q over 26.5 (-102 at DraftKings and FanDuel)

• Pitchers Aaron Nola and Joe Musgrove have had success against the lineups they’re facing tonight, especially at the top. The top three hitters in San Diego’s lineup are a combined 3-24 (.125) against Nola with only one extra-base hit, while the top three hitters in Philadelphia’s lineup are a combined 11-61 (.180) against Musgrove with four extra-base hits. The wind will be blowing in from left field at Petco Park, which only helps these pitchers. Phillies @ Padres no runs first inning (-115 at DraftKings)

• Brewers starter Colin Rea has struck out only 14 batters in 21.2 innings of work this season, and he’s recorded three or fewer Ks in three of his four starts. The right-hander ranks in the eighth percentile in whiff rate and the 12th percentile in strikeout rate. He also has the second-highest chase contact rate in MLB among qualified pitchers at 80.5%. The Yankees, meanwhile, have the second-lowest chase rate and the fifth-highest chase contact rate in the league. This number is too high, plain and simple. Colin Rea under 4.5 Ks (-134 at FanDuel)

• We haven’t heard much from Luiz Arraez this season because he isn’t leading MLB in batting average (and the Marlins are terrible), but he’s still batting .299 with only 11 strikeouts in 107 at-bats. The second baseman is 8-18 over the past four games, and he’s staring down a great matchup against Nationals starter Trevor Williams. In 16 career ABs against Williams, Arraez is batting .438 with a double and a home run. He crushes right-handed pitching, and this is a righty he loves to face. Luis Arraez over 1.5 hits (+140 at FanDuel)

• Twins starter Bailey Ober couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start this season. The right-hander was smacked around by the Royals for nine hits and eight earned runs in his 2024 debut, but he’s been lights out since. Over his last three starts, Ober has surrendered only eight hits and two earned runs while racking up 16 strikeouts. Minnesota’s offense also ranks fourth in MLB in OPS over the last week. The Twins should be bigger favorites in this one. Twins moneyline (-110 at FanDuel)

• We’re running out of words to describe just how great Shohei Ohtani is. The Dodgers slugger is batting .358 with a 1.089 OPS this season, and he’s been unstoppable against right-handed pitching: Ohtani leads MLB in batting average (.415) and OPS (1.333) against righties this year. Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt ranks in the 15th percentile in expected batting average allowed and the 22nd percentile in barrel rate allowed, so this is a good spot for Ohtani to have another big game at the plate. Shohei Ohtani over 2.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-115 DraftKings)

• Shota Imanaga has been brilliant to start his MLB career — with only two earned runs in his first 21.1 innings — but the strikeouts haven’t been there. The Cubs lefty has gone under 5.5 Ks in three of his first four starts, and he ranks only 43rd in whiff rate among qualified pitchers. He’s also due for a rough start considering he has the third-highest hard-hit rate and fly ball rate in MLB. The Red Sox have the fifth-best wOBAcon and the eighth-best barrel rate in MLB this year, so they could jump on Imanaga early and chase him from the game. Shota Imanaga under 5.5 Ks (+125 at DraftKings)

• Speaking of Imanaga, we’re interested in fading him with a home run prop on Friday night. The Japanese star is giving up a slugging percentage of just .237 this season, but his expected slugging percentage allowed is .411 because of how many hard-hit balls he surrenders. That 0.174 difference is the largest in MLB, so regression should be coming for Imanaga. Rafael Devers led the Red Sox last year in home runs off left-handed pitching, and he’s 6-9 with a home run since returning to the lineup earlier this week.  Rafael Devers to hit a home run (+560 at FanDuel)

IN THE NEWS