Timberwolves Look to Finish off Hapless Suns, and It's Time to Get Ready for the Kentucky Derby

Post positions were drawn yesterday for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez’s Fierceness is the current favorite, with 5-2 odds. Sierra Leone is at 3-1, Catching Freedom is 8-1, and Just a Touch and Forever Young start the week at 10-1. According to the Louisville Courier Journal, since 1930 the most winners have come from Post 5 (Catalytic, 30-1), and Post 10 (T O Password, 30-1) has produced the most in-the-money finishers.

Chris is covering all four NBA games in today’s newsletter, and is looking for the Knicks to start quick, Kawhi to continue to be slowed by injury, Patrick Beverley to do all he can for the depleted Bucks, and the Suns to be swept. In baseball, Malcolm is tracking Pirates rookie Jared Jones’s fast start to his major league career. And in soccer, Sam thinks Roma starters will play more than people assume against Napoli.

Have a great Sunday!

Abe

• The Knicks must feel overwhelmed after the tidal wave thrown at them in game three. Joel Embiid dropped a 50-burger on their defense, one of the top-ranked units in the NBA, and the officials seemed to be on the Sixers’ side. Philly dwarfed New York with 33 trips to the charity stripe compared to their 19; 21 attempts alone went to Embiid. Fired up and sounding off in the media since, expect an aggressive Knicks' squad from the start. Knicks 1Q ML (+128 at FanDuel)

• Jalen Brunson finally had his coming out party against his new rival, exploding for 39 points in game three. But Thursday's battle was an outlier more than the norm. The Sixers blitzed New York and caught them off guard, forcing the visitors to chase Philly all game. The fourth matchup profiles to be lower-scoring, which suggests Brunson will return to a total closer to his average vs. Philly (23 ppg). Two top-10 defenses will adjust, and the same opportunities just won't be there. Brunson under 31.5 points (-118 at DraftKings)

• We faded Kawhi Leonard's point-prop on Friday. He only took 7 shots in game three, scoring 9 points. "The Claw" is inching his way back into form, but his team is hurting because of it. Paul George went just 3-11 for 7 points and Russell Westbrook went 0-7 for 1 point in game three, a pathetic output. Oddsmakers are anticipating more Kawhi in response, but the embattled star admitted his knee "didn't respond right" after game one. Expectations are too high. K. Leonard under 19.5 points (-105 at DraftKings)

• Plenty has gone wrong for the Clippers in their last two losses. The Dallas defense deserves some credit - Jason Kidd has his guys swarming - but the Clippers just haven't found any rhythm in two straight contests. The urgency of game four and the desire to correct their wrongs should ignite a Clippers' offense that needs a spark, and Paul George is due for a much better showing after a clunker three days ago. Clippers Team Total over 101.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

• Patrick Beverley's role grew immediately when Damian Lillard got injured in game three, staying on the court for 42 minutes in an OT battle. With Lillard doubtful for game four, everyone has to pick up the slack with Milwaukee's two top scorers out. Prospects don't look great for the underdog, but Beverley has been in big battles throughout his career and won't shy away from attacking the rim. The veteran tends to thrive in these moments. P. Beverley over 9.5 points (-104 at FanDuel)

• No Giannis was one thing, but no Damian Lillard could be too much to overcome for the struggling Bucks. Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers delivered a heartbreaking blow to Milwaukee after an admirable comeback led to OT, and now the Pacers get another home game to build off their momentum and out-run the Bucks' weakened offense. Indiana has shown more energy and tenacity on both sides of the court in this series. Pacers -9.5 (-110 at FanDuel and DraftKings)

• The Suns just don't have answers for Anthony Edwards and the T-Wolves. Capitulating in every game, usually at some point in the second quarter, Phoenix's stars could be seen frustrated and without answers in all three previous affairs. Frank Vogel appears to be losing his grip on the roster, visibly emotional and red-faced by the bench. And even when the Suns' big-3 perform at a high level (they combined for 76 points in game three), it has no effect on the outcome. Timberwolves -2 (-105 at DraftKings)

• Pirates starter Jared Jones is off to an exceptional start to his major league career largely due to his potent fastball that clocks in at an average of 97.3 mph. That pitch’s effectiveness is complemented by his slider, which boasts the highest whiff rate in the majors at 51.1% and a formidable .190 expected batting average (xBA). Jones's command is also noteworthy, issuing just four walks over 29 innings. The Giants, who have shown vulnerability against high-velocity fastballs and effective sliders, face a challenging matchup. Pirates First 5 Moneyline (-105 at FanDuel) 

• Jones has been a reliable strikeout artist, hitting the over on strikeouts in all five of his starts this season. Facing the Giants, who sit in the middle of the pack with their strikeout percentage against right-handers, Jones finds an intriguing matchup. The Giants are prone to high called-strike rates, frequently ending up in two-strike counts. Despite their modest swinging strike rate, Jones's elite pitching has demonstrated the ability to effectively miss bats over and over again. Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106 at FanDuel)

• The Orioles are swinging hot bats at home, pushing across 31 runs in their past five games in Baltimore. They'll meet the A’s Paul Blackburn, who faltered with seven runs allowed over his last two starts, including four in his most recent road outing. Given the Orioles' success against right-handers and Blackburn's dip in form, Baltimore looks set to exploit any pitching missteps. Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+116 at FanDuel) 

• Cleveland's bullpen ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 1.04 are standout figures, pointing to their ability to control games late. Atlanta is starting Bryce Elder, who didn’t give up a run in 6.2 innings pitched in his debut. With each team bringing strong pitching to the fore, scoring could be sparse. Under 9 total runs (-105 at FanDuel) 

• The Braves, tearing through the league with a .750 win percentage, face Cleveland's Ben Lively, whose ERA against them stands at 2.82. Atlanta's hitters, boasting a high team batting average and OPS, should also expect help from Edler. Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-168 at FanDuel) 

• The Mets, known for their clutch late-game performances, are up against the Cardinals, who usually jump out to quick starts. It’s simple math: If the Cardinals get out to an early lead, they have an advantage; if it’s close later in the game, the edge goes to New York. The Mets need a win to avoid being swept by an average team at home. They’ve hit 19 homers against right-handers this season, and with Cardinals starter Lance Lynn’s tendency to allow home runs, the Mets' power swinging lineup could be the key. J.D. Martinez is back in the fold, offering a major boost to the Mets lineup. Mets Moneyline (-118 at FanDuel) 

• Both starting pitchers for the White Sox and Rays have been strong to begin the season, not giving up many runs. The White Sox are having a historically bad 2024 and it starts and ends with their issues at the plate. The White Sox are batting below .200 against right-handers and Tampa Bay’s offense is not faring much better, so the first inning could be rather quiet. No Runs First Inning (-125 at FanDuel) 

• Mainz host Koln in another Bundesliga game featuring teams concerned with relegation. The visitors are second from bottom in the league, while Mainz are currently in the relegation playoff spot. One bright spot for Mainz has been the performances of Jonathan Burkardht. He’s either scored or assisted a goal in each of his past five home starts in the league and will have a chance of continuing that trend against one of the league’s weaker sides. Jonathan Burkardt to score or assist (-120 at Bet365)

• There’s a big +300 price on a Roma win here because conventional wisdom says that some players will rest to prepare for their Europa League semifinal midweek against Leverkusen. However, this feels like an opportunity given they are a far better team than this season’s Napoli. Roma have been great since Daniele De Rossi replaced Jose Mourinho as manager, having lost just once in their last five games, while Napoli have just one win in their last five. While Roma will have an eye on their European semi, we need to take into account that it’s not until Thursday, so the risk of rotation is perhaps lower than some think. If rotation is minimal, then +300 will look like great value. Roma (+300 at Bet365)

Matches covered in our Soccer AM coverage, which is posted on sportmoney.com 
by 8:30am on Saturdays and Sundays during the European soccer season:

• We have a battle between two of England’s coastal towns on Sunday. Just one point separates 10th-place Bournemouth and 11th-place Brighton, but there’s not much riding on this match because it’s unlikely, but not quite impossible, for either team to finish in a European qualification spot. Brighton are a real concern right now, as they haven’t won in their last five outings and come in after being thrashed 4-0 by Man City. That’s great news for Dominic Solanke, who has 18 goals in 34 Premier League games this season. He needs to continue to score to boost his chances of making England’s Euro 2024 squad. Solanke has scored in eight of 17 home games this season, and +130 is an attractive price to do it again against a struggling Brighton. Dominic Solanke to score (+130 at FanDuel)

• We can’t forget that Man City have a game-in-hand on Arsenal, but it’s the Gunners who come into today on top of the Premier League table with a match against Spurs, their hated rival. There’s nothing Tottenham would like more than to kill Arsenal’s Premier League title bid, but it’s unlikely. This Arsenal team are playing at a high level right now, with just five dropped points in the past 14 Premier League games. They should take advantage of a Spurs team who have conceded nearly double the goals they have, with 49 to Arsenal’s 26. Both teams to score has landed in all but two of Spurs’ home games this season, so they should score but don’t look for them to take points off Arsenal. Arsenal and Both teams to score (+187 at Bet365)

• We’re sticking with the North London derby and taking Emerson Royal to get booked. Spurs’ impressive leftback Destiny Udogie has been sidelined for the rest of the season, which means that Ange Postecoglou will have to pick a replacement. It’s likely to be Emerson Royal over Ben Davies, and the Brazilian can at times be rash, especially in high-pressure games like this. He’ll be lined up opposite Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka, who is fouled on average twice per game. Emerson Royal to be shown a card (+290 at BetRivers)

• Gladbach and Union Berlin are 13th and 15th, respectively, in Bundesliga. So they’ll both be looking down at 16th-place Mainz and feeling slightly nervous, knowing that they aren’t safe from finishing in that relegation playoff spot. Both of these teams have the same record over the past five games, three defeats, one draw and one win. But Gladbach have the home advantage and we’ve seen Union combust throughout the season. They’ve taken just three points from losing positions all year, so if Gladbach score early then the game is likely over, and have more players sent off than anybody in the league, showing that they can’t handle pressure. Gladbach (+130 at FanDuel)

• Sticking with that match, goals have been Union’s problem all season, scoring just 26 times in 30 Bundesliga games — the second-worst record in the league. They come into today having scored just one goal in their past four games, and even that goal came last week as a 90th-minute consolation against a Bayern Munich team who were winning 5-0. Union Berlin Under 0.5 goals (+225 at DraftKings)

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