Soccer AM: A North London Derby with Huge Stakes for Both Teams

We have a battle between two of England’s coastal towns on Sunday. Just one point separates 10th-place Bournemouth and 11th-place Brighton, but there’s not much riding on this match because it’s unlikely, but not quite impossible, for either team to finish in a European qualification spot. Brighton are a real concern right now, as they haven’t won in their last five outings and come in after being thrashed 4-0 by Man City. That’s great news for Dominic Solanke, who has 18 goals in 34 Premier League games this season. He needs to continue to score to boost his chances of making England’s Euro 2024 squad. Solanke has scored in eight of 17 home games this season, and +130 is an attractive price to do it again against a struggling Brighton. Dominic Solanke to score (+130 at FanDuel)

We can’t forget that Man City have a game-in-hand on Arsenal, but it’s the Gunners who come into today on top of the Premier League table with a match against Spurs, their hated rival. There’s nothing Tottenham would like more than to kill Arsenal’s Premier League title bid, but it’s unlikely. This Arsenal team are playing at a high level right now, with just five dropped points in the past 14 Premier League games. They should take advantage of a Spurs team who have conceded nearly double the goals they have, with 49 to Arsenal’s 26. Both teams to score has landed in all but two of Spurs’ home games this season, so they should score but don’t look for them to take points off Arsenal. Arsenal and Both teams to score (+187 at Bet365)

We’re sticking with the North London derby and taking Emerson Royal to get booked. Spurs’ impressive leftback Destiny Udogie has been sidelined for the rest of the season, which means that Ange Postecoglou will have to pick a replacement. It’s likely to be Emerson Royal over Ben Davies, and the Brazilian can at times be rash, especially in high-pressure games like this. He’ll be lined up opposite Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka, who is fouled on average twice per game. Emerson Royal to be shown a card (+290 at BetRivers)

Gladbach and Union Berlin are 13th and 15th, respectively, in Bundesliga. So they’ll both be looking down at 16th-place Mainz and feeling slightly nervous, knowing that they aren’t safe from finishing in that relegation playoff spot. Both of these teams have the same record over the past five games, three defeats, one draw and one win. But Gladbach have the home advantage and we’ve seen Union combust throughout the season. They’ve taken just three points from losing positions all year, so if Gladbach score early then the game is likely over, and have more players sent off than anybody in the league, showing that they can’t handle pressure. Gladbach (+130 at FanDuel)

Sticking with that match, goals have been Union’s problem all season, scoring just 26 times in 30 Bundesliga games — the second-worst record in the league. They come into today having scored just one goal in their past four games, and even that goal came last week as a 90th-minute consolation against a Bayern Munich team who were winning 5-0. Union Berlin Under 0.5 goals (+225 at DraftKings)

Mainz host Koln in another Bundesliga game featuring teams concerned with relegation. The visitors are second from bottom in the league, while Mainz are currently in the relegation playoff spot. One bright spot for Mainz has been the performances of Jonathan Burkardht. He’s either scored or assisted a goal in each of his past five home starts in the league and will have a chance of continuing that trend against one of the league’s weaker sides. Jonathan Burkardt to score or assist (-120 at Bet365)

There’s a big +300 price on a Roma win here because conventional wisdom says that some players will rest to prepare for their Europa League semifinal midweek against Leverkusen. However, this feels like an opportunity given they are a far better team than this season’s Napoli. Roma have been great since Daniele De Rossi replaced Jose Mourinho as manager, having lost just once in their last five games, while Napoli have just one win in their last five. While Roma will have an eye on their European semi, we need to take into account that it’s not until Thursday, so the risk of rotation is perhaps lower than some think. If rotation is minimal, then +300 will look like great value. Roma (+300 at Bet365)