Bets to Watch in Tonight's Two NBA Playoff Games + MLB Matchups

In today’s newsletter…

• Top 10 Bets: Mobley has scored 48 points across 3 playoff games

• Game of the Day: Rockets’ field goal percentage is worst in NBA Playoffs

• Matchups: Guardians hitters combine for a .141 OBP against tonight’s starter

• Overtime: NFL Draft grades

Cavaliers Scored 121+ in all 3 Games in Series Against Heat

By Chris Farley

Heat +9 (-110 at Caesars)
A tale as old as time, the less-talented program is down 0-3, a heavy underdog, and Monday could mean the end of their season. What often happens in scenarios like this is anything but obvious. Aside from a hotly contested game two that they probably should have won, the Heat have not performed well and were immediately overwhelmed after holding an eight-point lead early in the first quarter of game three. Miami ended up losing by 37 points. That doesn't change the fact that Erik Spoelstra is an exceptional coach and game-planner, a guy who's been in tough playoff scenarios plenty of times before, and we'd be hard-pressed to believe his squad will go down without a fight.

Evan Mobley under 16.5 points (-110 consensus)
Fresh off the announcement that Evan Mobley won this season's Defensive Player of the Year award, a snubbed and motivated Bam Adebayo responded. Although his team did not follow suit, Adebayo ended up with 22 points and nine rebounds, and he was easily among the best defenders on Saturday. Mobley, who scored 19 points and has scored 48 in three contests, has been efficient, averaging a 57.6% field goal rate in the series. But with Adebayo defending his home turf and Miami hell-bent on keeping the series going, we project Mobley, who averages 18.5 points per game this season, to face a grueling environment on Monday, a scenario that doesn't suit a guy whose production is already quite humble.

Cavs vs. Heat over 209.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
We get why game four's total is projected to go far under what we've seen thus far. Miami is desperate and less than inclined offensively, at most points of the season rated as one of the worst offenses in the NBA. The issue is what Cleveland has continued to bring game in, game out. The Cavaliers have dominated the Heat defense, scoring at least 121 points in all three battles. Even more impressive, they averaged 50.7% from the field, and despite maintaining a relatively slow tempo (91.17), they're effective field goal percentage is the best of any playoff team so far. The Cavs' offense is just too explosive, and since we expect Miami to play a more respectable game, we project this far over 210.

Rockets to win (+155 at Bovada)
Whether Jimmy Butler is back or not (we don't think he will be), we don't think it'll matter on Monday. Golden State has some of the old championship parts that made them so exceptional in the past, particularly an enigmatic Steph Curry who absolutely dominated Houston on Saturday (36 points), but let's be real — this isn't quite the same program. Filled with undependable players like Jonathan Kuminga, Buddy Hield and Quinten Post, guys like Curry and other veterans are under immense pressure to close out this series. Houston, despite cogs like Jalen Green laying an egg at times (4-11, nine points on Saturday), is very well-coached with great team chemistry. We like them to steal another one.

Rockets vs. Warriors over 201.5 points (-110 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
Easily the lowest-scoring series in the postseason until this point, the Rockets and Warriors haven't exactly looked like juggernauts through three affairs. Both programs eclipsed 100 points just once so far, and each defense has held the other to under 45% from the floor (GS has shot 44%, HOU has shot just 41.3%). Game four might finally be the one that deviates. Eventually, when both offenses have been this poor, regression starts taking shape, especially when each rosters is extremely familiar with the other's schemes and style. Fueled by Houston's desire to even up the series and cultivated by Golden State's typical offensive uptick at home, we see far more shots falling tonight.

Steph Curry over 27.5 points (-110 at Bovada)
Regardless of who wins, we doubt Curry will slow down. The all-world guard has been a part of many notable moments in his career, including a performance at the 2024 Summer Olympics that essentially clutched the game for Team USA (eight three-pointers). In game three, Curry took over (36 points, seven rebounds, nine assists), needing to lead his team solely without Butler in the lineup. Although Warriors' sources say they're hopeful Butler will play in game four, we have our doubts. Pelvic injuries are no joke, in the least it'll limit Butler's production, and Curry has more experience dominating defenses at the Chase Center than just about any player in any arena in the world.

NBA Future

Nuggets win first round series (+138 at FanDuel)
The Denver Nuggets will likely be the favorite in game five of their series against the Clippers, a clash that's now 2-2 and every bit as close as the record implies. Three battles have been decided by three points or less, and we're inclined to believe it could easily go the full seven games. Either way, there's value betting on Denver for one clear reason: Nikola Jokic. Arguably (we don't think it's arguable) the NBA's best player, Jokic decided to take matters into his own hands in game four, accruing a ridiculous 36 points, 21 rebounds and eight assists. We expect the same vigor from the the one player who's the most unstoppable on the court for the rest of this series, and that makes all the difference. 

WTA: Madrid

Moyuka Uchijima (+211 at BetOnline)
Casual tennis fans won't know about Uchijima or her capability. The Japanese 23 year old is ranked 56th in the world, still developing her best form. She has never won a grand-slam, but 2024 was groundbreaking for her career. Reaching the top-60 for the first time, Uchijima got to the second round at Rolland Garros and at the U.S. Open last season, and this year she beat out Magda Linette in their opening match at Sydney. She's been fantastic in Madrid, losing just two sets in three matches. Ekaterina Alexandrova has also looked fantastic as of late, earning seminal wins against top-tier players like Jessica Pegula, Qinwen Zheng, and Diana Shnaider in recent events. Neither will budge Monday, so we love a long battle.

Elina Svitolina 2-1 (+290 at FanDuel)
Maria Sakkari is now 29 years old, a competitor who made her WTA debut 10 years ago, and lately it seemed like her best tennis was behind her. In Madrid, she has looked like the same player who was once ranked 3rd in the world (March 2022), annihilating Magda Linette and 6th-ranked Jasmine Paolini (6-2, 6-1). She should put up a fight Monday, but Svitolina is simply playing on a different level lately. The Ukrainian, continually motivated to make her country proud, has only lost to Iga Swiatek in her past two tournaments, and she's coming off a win at the Rouen Open. She also just made Elena Rybakina look pedestrian (6-3, 6-4).

NFL Futures

New York Giants over 5.5 wins (+130 at FanDuel)
The Giants have been an extremely mediocre franchise for the past decade, but we believe 2025 may finally grant some hope. Their schedule will be very difficult, slated to face the AFC West and NFC North, arguably the two toughest divisions in the NFL, outside of their own rivals this season. Their projected win total is very low because of it. Regardless, New York has done a great job restocking their roster, including a game-changing edge rusher in Abdul Carter that adds to an already exceptional defensive line. Their secondary is full of A+ talent, and veteran, Super-Bowl winning QB Russell Wilson can steer the ship of an underrated surrounding cast. Not to mention, head coach Brian Daboll is fighting for his job.

Houston’s 41.3% Playoff Field Goal Percentage is Lowest of all 16 Teams

No. 2 Rockets vs. No. 7 Warriors
10pm on TNT
(Warriors lead 2-1)

• Spread: Warriors -3.5 (-112), Rockets +3.5 (-108)

  • GSW: 44-40-2, HOU: 44-40-1

  • 56% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Golden State

• Moneyline: Warriors -172, Rockets +144

• Total (201.5): Over/Under -110

  • GSW: 42-44-0, HOU: 44-40-1

*Stats in the Playoffs

Player Stats

• April 26: Warriors won 104-93 at Golden State

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Curry (36), Hield (17), Payton II (16)

    • Leading rebounds: Post (12), Green (8), Curry (7)

    • Leading assists: Curry (9), Green and Post (4)

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: VanVleet (17), Sengun (15), Brooks (13)

    • Leading rebounds: Sengun (11), Thompson (7)

    • Leading assists: Green (5), Sengun and Thompson (4)

• April 23: Rockets won 109-94 at Houston

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: Green (38), Sengun (17), Brooks (16)

    • Leading rebounds: Sengun (16), VanVleet and Eason (6)

    • Leading assists: Sengun (7), Green (6), Thompson (3)

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Curry (20), Moody and Post (12)

    • Leading rebounds: Curry and Green (5), Looney and Hield (4)

    • Leading assists: Curry (9), Looney (3), Kuminga (2)

• April 20: Warriors won 95-85 at Houston

  • Warriors

    • Leading scorers: Curry (31), Butler (25), Podziemski (14)

    • Leading rebounds: Podziemski (8), Butler (7), Green and Curry (6)

    • Leading assists: Butler (6), Podziemski (5), Green and Curry (3)

  • Rockets

    • Leading scorers: Sengun (26), Brooks and Smith Jr. (11)

    • Leading rebounds: Adams (12), Sengun and Thompson (9)

    • Leading assists: VanVleet (7), Thompson (6), Sengun and Green (2)

In 29 Plate Appearances vs. Martinez, Cardinals Hitters Combine for a .414 OBP

Griffin Canning (Mets) @ Nationals — 4:05pm on MLB Network

• Season: 3-1, 3.12 ERA, 5 starts, 26.0 innings, 25 hits, 9 ER, 2 HR, 11 BB, 26 K

• Matchup: Current Nationals hitters have 45 plate appearances against Canning and combine for a .356 OBP (15 hits, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K)

  • James Wood: 2-3, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI

  • Nathaniel Lowe: 3-13, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 K

  • Luis Garcia Jr.: 0-5, 1 RBI

Bailey Ober (Twins) at Guardians — 6:10pm

• Season: 2-1, 5.04 ERA, 5 starts, 25.0 innings, 29 hits, 14 ER, 5 HR, 7 BB, 23 K

• Matchup: Current Guardians hitters have 71 plate appearances against Ober and combine for a .141 OBP (8 hits, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 21 K)

  • Jose Ramirez: 9-16, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Carlos Santana: 0-10, 2 K

  • Steven Kwan: 0-12

Nick Martinez (Reds) vs. Cardinals — 6:40pm MLB Network

• Season: 0-3, 5.40 ERA, 5 starts, 26.2 innings, 28 hits, 16 ER, 4 HR, 9 BB, 23 K

• Matchup: Current Cardinals hitters have 29 plate appearances against Martinez and combine for a .414 OBP (8 hits, 1 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 2 K)

  • Brendan Donovan: 3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1 BB

  • Nolan Gorman: 2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB

  • Nolan Arenado: 1-7, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 K

JP Sears (Athletics) @ Rangers — 8:05pm

• Season: 3-2, 3.21 ERA, 5 starts, 28 innings, 25 hits, 10 ER, 4 HR, 6 BB, 23 K

• Matchup: Current Rangers hitters have 124 plate appearances against Sears and combine for a .274 OBP (28 hits, 5 2B, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 6 BB, 26 K

  • Marcus Semien: 6-24, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 4 K

  • Adolis Garcia: 4-24, 2 RBI, 7 K

  • Leody Taveras: 2-15, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 6 K

Edward Cabrera (Marlins) @ Dodgers — 10:10pm

• Season: 0-1, 6.14 ERA, 3 starts, 14.2 innings, 13 hits, 10 ER, 3 HR, 8 BB, 18 K

• Matchup: Current Dodgers hitters have 58 plate appearances against Cabrera and combine for a .379 OBP (11 hits, 1 2B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 11 BB, 11 K)

  • Michael Conforto: 4-10, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 K

  • Max Muncy: 3-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

  • Freddie Freeman: 0-7, 2 BB, 2 K

In the News 

• CBS Sports’ NFL Draft grades.

• The officials in yesterday’s Knicks vs. Pistons matchup admitted they made a mistake that ended up deciding the game.

• The Commanders are moving back to Washington.

• Falcon defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich’s son was behind the prank call to Shedeur Sanders.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 4:05pm: Mets vs. Nationals on MLB Network

• 6:40pm: Cardinals vs. Reds on MLB Network

• 7pm: Lightning vs. Panthers on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Cavaliers vs. Heat on TNT

• 9:30: Avalanche vs. Stars on ESPN

• 10pm: Rockets vs. Warriors on TNT

Photo of the Day