With Three NBA Heavyweights in Action Tonight Don't Look for Many Surprises

The Knicks and Pacers took commanding 3-1 leads yesterday, the Timberwolves swept the Suns, and the Clippers outlasted the Mavericks to tie the series at two. Dallas got off to a horrific start and were down 39-16 after the first quarter. The Mavs righted the ship in the second and then held the Clippers to 16 points in the third quarter.

Yes, two different teams only scored 16 points in a quarter in this game. By the fourth quarter, it felt like the Clippers were going to give away another one, but they held on for the 116-111 win. Do the Clippers have momentum for tying the series on the road, or do the Mavs have momentum for outscoring the Clippers by 18 in the final three quarters? In this series and with these teams, nobody knows.

In today’s edition, Jason is looking for the Thunder to close out the Pelicans, Derrick White to continue being the Celtics’ third option on offense, and for the Lakers to avoid a blowout. In baseball, Craig is tracking another good start from Braves pitcher Max Fried and expecting a lot of hits in the Yankees vs. Orioles matchup.

See you tomorrow!

Abe

• The Celtics took care of business in Game 3, holding the Miami Heat to just 84 points in a 20-point win. Miami still shot 41.8% from the field and hit a better percentage from downtown than the Celtics. The difference was the Heat taking nine fewer three-point attempts and seven fewer foul shots. Don’t look for much change in Game 4. Expect another Boston rout in a low-scoring affair. Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat UNDER 203.5 (-110 at ESPN Bet)

• The Pelicans are checked out. After an enjoyable Game 1 matchup, New Orleans just looked utterly exhausted and gassed in Games 2 and 3. The Pelicans lost those two games by a combined score of 230-177. They’ve literally lost the previous eight quarters to the Thunder by 53 points. Meanwhile, the Thunder have looked solid offensively in this series, and the defense has been tremendous: The Pelicans haven’t scored more than 100 points per 100 possessions against the Thunder in any game of this series. Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 (-110 at BetRivers)

• By now, you’ve seen the stats. The Lakers have been ahead of the Nuggets for almost all of the series but trail 3-1. If the Lakers pull off a miracle on the road tonight, Los Angeles would head back home for Game 6 to potentially tie the series and make things interesting. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but I will stick with the analytics. They’ll compete and won’t go down without a fight. Los Angeles Lakers +7.5 (-109 at BetRivers)

• In the playoffs, Derrick White is the third-leading scorer for the Celtics. It’s not Kristaps Porzingis or Jrue Holiday. It’s Derrick White. White averaged 15.2 points per game for Boston in the regular season. He’s also scored 16.3 points per game for the Celtics in this playoff series. In addition, he’s nailed at least 13 points in each playoff game while taking an average of 6.3 three-point attempts per game. Game 4 might go Under the total, but 13+ points from White certainly won’t kill the Under. Derrick White OVER 12.5 Points (-109 at BetRivers)

• The Heat predictably will miss many shots tonight. That’s usually a good sign for Jayson Tatum. However, in the regular season he only added 8.1 rebounds per game. Now, we’re getting a little crazy with 9.5 rebounds at -110. In the regular season, Tatum played Miami three times and averaged below nine rebounds. He also hasn’t even averaged 10 rebounds in the playoffs this year, despite two games with 10+ rebounds. It’s more likely he comes back down to earth and grabs nine or fewer rebounds. There’s also a chance this game gets out of reach quickly, allowing Tatum to sit for some of the fourth quarter. Jayson Tatum UNDER 9.5 Rebounds (-110 at ESPN Bet)

• C.J. McCollum has averaged just 5.7 assists per game for the Pelicans in the three matchups against the Thunder. But after two demoralizing losses, the Pelicans will likely get trounced early, and that would be the end of the New Orleans Pelicans’ season. In the regular season, McCollum averaged only 4.6 assists per game. But after two games with six or more assists in the playoffs, McCollum has a line of 5.5. Now’s the time to look at fading McCollum. Don’t expect his teammates to help out much after the Thunder held the Pelicans to a 44.3% effective field goal percentage in two of the three games in the playoffs. C.J. McCollum UNDER 5.5 Assists (+120 at BetRivers)

• Jamal Murray hasn’t scored more than 22 points in any of the playoff games against the Lakers. Yet, we can still find some intriguing value on Murray’s points total. Heading into tonight’s game, Murray is questionable with a calf strain. In addition, he’s shot just 38% in the playoffs and has done even worse from downtown, hitting 1.3 threes on six attempts per game. That’s under 21% from downtown in this series. Jamal Murray UNDER 22.5 Points (+133 at BetRivers)

• We’re considering the possibility of the Braves coming out a bit flat, particularly offensively, after an emotional and competitive series preceding a cross-country flight. The Braves are up against the first-place Seattle Mariners, who are 7-3 over their last 10. Mariners right-hander Bryce Miller has demonstrated the ability to be dominant over extended stretches, and has a 1.59 ERA the first time through the order. Mariners +0.5 first three innings (-145 at DraftKings)

• Braves starter Max Fried’s numbers are inflated by a pair of rough early outings, but he has pitched very well over his last three starts, compiling a 1.77 ERA and .238 wOBA across 20.1 innings pitched. He pitched beyond six frames in two of those three starts, and he’s facing a poor offensive Mariners team in a pitcher-friendly park — especially against left-handed pitching. Max Fried over 17.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)

• Clarke Schmidt and Grayson Rodriguez will take the hill for the Yankees and Orioles, respectively, in the first of a four-game set. Schmidt has struggled against the O’s across his last four starts (5.40 ERA), while the Yankees collected 43 hits over their series win against the Brewers. If they can carry over some of that momentum from the weekend, both teams should have a busy night in the hit column. Yankees vs. Orioles over 17.5 total hits (-110 at DraftKings)

• Nobody will expect a pitcher’s duel when the Tigers host the Cardinals. Both Kenta Maeda and Cardinals lefty Steven Matz sport ERAs approaching 6.00. However, we’re giving Maeda and the Tigers a slight advantage thanks to the right-hander’s success against the heart of the Cardinals order — including 15 K and zero homers allowed against Nolan Arenado in 30 at-bats. Tigers ML first 5 innings (-112 at FanDuel)

• The Athletics will host the Pirates and southpaw Bailey Falter in Oakland following a 10-game road trip. Neither team is an offensive juggernaut, and that’s putting it nicely for the A’s in particular, who own a .299 xwOBA, fourth-lowest in the league, in addition to a .198 batting average versus lefties. Add the pitcher-friendly conditions of Oakland Coliseum and there are a lot of factors to suggest a low-scoring game. Pirates vs. Athletics under 8 (-105 at Caesars)

• Marlins vs. Nationals features a battle of left-handers, Trevor Rogers and Jake Irvin, respectively. The Marlins have the second-worst OPS vs. left-handers and a .302 xwOBA overall. On the plus side for the fish, Rogers’ advanced metrics suggest he’s pitching better than his 4.10 ERA. The Nats are better offensively than the Marlins — which isn’t saying much — but they’re far from a heavy hitting unit. Nationals vs. Marlins under 8.5 (-105 at Caesars)

• We’re eyeing Mets righty Luis Severino against the Cubs on Monday evening with a specific look at his hits allowed prop. Even though we acknowledge his quality form of late — six innings pitched in each of his last two starts — we’re going to fall short of calling him “dominant.” The Cubs are a respectable offensive team, superior to the likes of Severino’s recent opponents (Giants, Pirates). This isn’t a spot where we expect Severino to struggle per se, but we like the Cubs to have some success in the hit column. Luis Severino over 5.5 hits allowed (+118 at Caesars)

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