Knicks Look to Close Out Sixers in Game 5 at the Garden

What’s next for the Lakers and LeBron James? With a 108-106 loss to the Nuggets last night, the Lakers fell 4-1 in the first round of the NBA Playoffs a year after being swept by Denver in the Western Conference Finals. There isn’t a whole lot of logic to bringing back the same team to try again next season.

When asked how he’ll decide how to move forward, James said, “I haven't given it much thought,” and that he’ll see “what’s best for my career.” It’s hard to argue that playing for a middling Lakers team is best for his career, so you have to expect there will be some changes in LA this summer.

In today’s newsletter, Jason is looking for more scoring in an elimination game in the Knicks/Sixers series, the Bucks being unable to overcome their injury woes, and the Cavs continuing home-team dominance against Orlando. In MLB, Jack is all over the Phillies/Angels game and is tracking Yankees starter Nestor Cortes to continue his success against the Orioles.

Abe

• The Knicks earned a 97-92 victory in Philadelphia on Sunday despite their lowest-scoring output of the series. New York only scored 109 points per 100 possessions and shot a 47.1% effective field goal percentage. While the Knicks haven’t shot the ball well this series, they’ve dominated the offensive glass to add extra possessions. In an elimination game, the Knicks should be aggressive on the glass and perform well offensively in the Garden for Game 5. Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks OVER 202.5 (-115 at ESPN Bet)

• The home team has dominated in all four games of this series. Don’t expect anything to change for Game 5. The Cavaliers held Orlando to no more than 86 points in consecutive playoff games to begin the series. While Game 5 should have more consistent offense on both ends, I’d still expect the Cavaliers to rally. Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 (-112 at BetRivers)

• The Magic played tremendous defense in Games 3 and 4, holding the Cavaliers to about 92 points per 100 possessions in the two games combined. That’s extraordinary. However, Orlando allowed 102.5 points per 100 possessions on the road against Cleveland in the first two games of the series. Those are still good numbers but not nearly as good as the home defensive numbers. Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 200 (-112 at BetRivers)

• If you take away the first half in Game 1 of the series, the Pacers would’ve won in four games over the Bucks. Damian Lillard carried the Bucks with an unbelievable half in that game, scoring 35 points. But heading into Game 5, with the Pacers up 3-1 in the series, it sounds like Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo won’t play. That’s a red flag. The Bucks simply don’t have the depth to stick with Indiana’s top-tier offense. Indiana Pacers -4 (-114 at FanDuel)

• In an elimination game, Joel Embiid has to be aggressive and do most of the scoring. This series has already gone that way. Embiid and Tyrese Maxey have averaged 64 points per game. The next highest scorer is Kelly Oubre Jr., who has scored 12 points per night. Embiid can’t rely on his teammates if he’s looking to carry the 76ers past the Knicks in Game 5. Joel Embiid UNDER 5.5 Assists (-120 at FanDuel)

• Wendell Carter Jr. was inserted into the starting lineup in Games 3 and 4. Not only did the Magic win those two games, but Carter Jr. added about 25 minutes per game. That was about a seven-minute increase from his first two games of the series. In Game 4, Carter Jr. scored 11 points on 4-for-6 from the field. He also nailed a couple of three-pointers. With Carter Jr. expected back in the starting lineup, his points total is appealing. Wendell Carter Jr. OVER 7.5 Points (-110 at BetRivers)

• Even with Lillard out in Game 4, Patrick Beverley played 21 minutes and took only six shots. He drained three buckets of those six attempts and added two foul shots, scoring nine points. Beverley has attempted two or fewer threes in each game of the series so far. He’s also attempted no more than six shots in any game. At the end of the day, this is still Khris Middleton’s squad for Game 5. Patrick Beverley UNDER 9.5 Points (-122 at DraftKings) 

• There’s nothing Nestor Cortes loves more than facing the Baltimore Orioles. In nine career appearances against the division rivals, the Yankees left-hander is 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 61 strikeouts. Current Orioles hitters are batting just .180 with a .236 xwOBA and a 37.6% strikeout rate against Cortes in 109 plate appearances. On the other side, Baltimore’s Dean Kremer has given up 15 hits and 11 earned runs over his last three starts. If Cortes can leave the game with the lead, New York’s bullpen has the most saves and the fifth-best ERA in baseball. Nester Cortes to record a win (+180 at DraftKings)

• Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds, the first two hitters in Pittsburgh’s lineup, are a combined 13-26 with six extra-base hits and two walks against Athletics starter Alex Wood. They’ll look to attack the left-hander early and jump out to a lead. Wood and Pirates starter Mitch Keller each sport a 6.00 ERA in the first inning this year. This is a good spot for some early runs, especially for the Pirates. Pirates @ Athletics over 0.5 runs 1st inning (-104 at FanDuel)

• White Sox pitcher Michael Soroka has been one of the worst starters in MLB this season in terms of generating swings and misses. The right-hander ranks dead last among 130 qualified pitchers in strikeout rate (9.8%) and 129th in whiff rate (15.1%). He also ranks 127th in expected batting average allowed, hasn’t recorded more than four strikeouts in a start all season, and has gone past the fifth inning just once in six starts. This number is only 4.5 because the Twins rank 25th in MLB in strikeout rate, but Soroka has a minuscule 3.4% K rate against current Minnesota hitters. Michael Soroka under 4.5 Ks (-140 at DraftKings)

• Sticking with the same game, this should look like batting practice for both teams. Current Twins hitters have a .404 xwOBA and an average exit velocity of 91.2 miles per hour in 29 plate appearances against Soroka, and Minnesota has the best OPS and the second-best batting average in baseball over the last week. As for the White Sox, current Chicago hitters are batting .350 against Simeon Woods Richardson. Twins @ White Sox over 16.5 total hits (-125 DraftKings)

• Alec Bohm is on an absolute heater at the plate. The Phillies third baseman leads MLB in batting average (.500), OPS (1.399), RBIs (19), and doubles (10) over the last 15 days, and he’s gone over this line in 11 of his last 12 games. He also leads the team in batting average and RBIs against left-handed pitching, and he’s 2-5 with a triple and a home run against Angels lefty Tyler Anderson in his career. Alec Bohm over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-145 DraftKings)

• Speaking of Anderson, he doesn’t have many fond memories going up against this Phillies lineup. Current Philadelphia hitters are batting .375 with a .433 xwOBA and a .668 expected slugging percentage in 79 plate appearances against him. The Phillies also have the highest OPS and the most runs scored in MLB over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s Spencer Turnbull has been lights out this season with a 1.33 ERA and a 0.852 WHIP. Phillies first 5 innings -0.5 (-106 at FanDuel)

• Another Phillies pick? Another Phillies pick! Anderson is giving up the second-highest fly ball rate and the 18th-highest barrel rate in MLB this season, and he’s surrendered four home runs over his last three starts. Bryce Harper is 6-10 against Anderson in his career with three home runs and a 1.800 slugging percentage, so he clearly sees the ball well out of the lefty’s hand. Oh, and the wind will be blowing straight out to center field at Angel Stadium on Tuesday night. Bryce Harper to hit a home run (+290 at FanDuel)

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