Lakers (-5.5), Rockets (-4) Favored to Avoid Elimination at Home + Our Top 10 Bets to Watch Today

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Champions League semifinals

• Top 10 Bets: Warriors and Rockets went over in Game 4 because of 53 free throws

• Game of the Day: Bettors are with underdog Timberwolves (+5.5) in Game 5

• Matchups: Guardians hitters have a .414 OBP against tonight’s starter

• Overtime: Another Spurs player won Rookie of the Year

The Champions League semifinals are underway, with PSG beating Arsenal 1-0 in London in the first leg of their matchup and Inter traveling to Barcelona today for their first game. FanDuel has Barcelona (-160) as the favorite, with Inter at +410 and a draw at +320.

• Both teams to score: Yes -176, No +138

• 2.5 goals: Over -178, Under +144

• To score or assist: Raphinha (-130), Ansu Fati (-125), Ferran Torres (-115), Lamine Yamal (-105), Fermin Lopez and Dani Olmo (+105)

With a win in hand, PSG (+125) is the current favorite to win the Champions League, followed by Barcelona (+187), Inter (+500) and Arsenal (+550).

In today’s newsletter, Jack gives you his top 10 bets to watch across the NBA, MLB and golf. We also have a preview of Game 5 of the Timberwolves vs. Lakers and 15 batter vs. pitcher matchups across five MLB games.

— Abe Rakov

LeBron Averages 48.1 Points + Rebounds + Assists in 13 Career Elimination Games

By Jack Dougherty

Rockets vs. Warriors under 203.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)
There’s no reason to get off the under train in this series after one outlier game. The Rockets and Warriors scored 215 points in Game 4 to hit the over for the first time in this series, but that’s mostly because they combined to shoot 53 free throws and go 28/69 (40.6%) from three. Houston and Golden State averaged just 37 total free throws per game and shot 34.5% from deep in the first three games. We’re predicting a return to the norm in Game 5. 

Draymond Green over 2.5 steals + blocks (-145 at DraftKings)
The Rockets can get loose with the ball on offense, which isn’t surprising for such a young team in a playoff environment. Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson all average more than 2.0 turnovers per game this season, and Green is especially equipped to take advantage of that. The Warriors forward cleared this line in each of the first three games of the series, and we’re getting a slight discount on this price after he didn’t record a single steal or block in Game 4. 

LeBron James over 42.5 points + rebounds + assists (-118 at FanDuel)
You know James isn’t going down without a fight. In 13 career elimination games, he’s averaged 48.1 points + rebounds + assists and cleared this line nine times. Since recording just five rebounds and three assists in Game 1, James has averaged 46.0 PRA in this series. He’ll also be much more aggressive as a scorer after attempting just nine shots in Game 4. 

MLB

Miles Mikolas under 3.5 strikeouts (-122 at FanDuel)
If you’ve been fading Mikolas with strikeout props in 2025, you’re having a pretty darn good season. The veteran right-hander has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in four of his five starts this year, and he ranks in the first percentile in whiff rate (13.7%) and the fifth percentile in strikeout rate (12.3%). The Reds have the second-lowest chase rate in MLB this season, and current Cincinnati hitters have just a 15.9% K rate in 82 plate appearances against Mikolas. 

Cal Quantrill under 3.5 strikeouts (-120 at DraftKings)
Quantrill has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, and that’s especially true this season. The Marlins right-hander has recorded just 13 strikeouts in 23.0 innings of work this year, and he ranks in the sixth percentile in strikeout rate (12.5%) and the 13th percentile in whiff rate (19.6%). This is also a brutal matchup against the Dodgers, as current LA hitters have a minuscule 10.1% K rate against Quantrill in 138 plate appearances.

Phillies first 5 innings -0.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
Christopher Sanchez has been one of our favorite pitchers to back this season, and he’s paid us back with two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts. The Phillies left-hander ranks in the 90th percentile in chase rate (34.7%), the 82nd percentile in whiff rate (31.6%) and the 75th percentile in xERA (2.75). He should be in store for another solid outing against a Nationals lineup that ranks 28th in MLB in OPS and 27th in wOBA against lefties over the last two weeks. On the other side, Philadelphia’s bats have come to life with 27 hits and 20 runs in the last three games. 

Braves team total over 6.5 runs (+102 at FanDuel)
The Braves are starting to look like the Braves again. Atlanta has won nine of its past 11 games and scored 34 runs over its past five. The Braves rank third in batting average (.303) and seventh in OPS (.798) and wRC+ (122) against right-handed pitching over the past week, and this is a matchup they should hammer at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Rookie Chase Dollinger ranks in the second percentile in barrel rate (19.4) and the sixth percentile in xERA (6.70) this season. He’s given up 16 hits and 11 earned runs over his past two starts.

Golf

Scottie Scheffler top-5 finish (-125 at FanDuel)
If you haven’t heard, Scheffler is a pretty good bet when he’s playing in his home state. In his last seven starts in Texas, the World No. 1 has finished T2, T2, T2, T3, T5, T9 and solo second. He ranks first in this field in total strokes gained, strokes gained on approach and strokes gained from around the green on Texas courses during that span. Not too shabby. This is a weak field with no superstars outside of Scheffler, so it’s a great spot for him to pick up his first win of the season. His +280 odds are too cheap for an outright price, so we’ll play it safe with a top five.

Sami Valimaki top-40 finish (+115 at DraftKings)
Over the past 24 rounds, Scheffler ranks third in this field in strokes gained on approach. The player in front of him in second? That’s right, Valimaki, who’s gained strokes with his irons in eight straight starts. He also ranks 16th on the PGA Tour this season in approaches from 200-225 yards, which is always a key distance at TPC Craig Ranch. Valimaki has finished fourth, T12 and T18 in his last three stroke-play starts, two of which came in Texas. 

Mackenzie Hughes top-30 finish (+115 at DraftKings)
Hughes is playing his best golf of the season, as he’s gained strokes in all four major categories in three straight starts. He’s coming off back-to-back top-10 finishes at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and the RBC Heritage, and he hasn’t even been putting at his typical high level. Over his past two starts at TPC Craig Ranch, though, the Canadian has gained nearly 10 strokes on the green. If Hughes keeps up this hot ball-striking and gets back in the groove with his putter, he could be a threat to win this week. 

Lakers (-5.5) Favored to Avoid Series-Ending Loss at Home vs. Timberwolves

No. 6 Timberwolves vs. No. 3 Lakers
10pm on TNT
(MIN leads 3-1)

• Spread: Lakers -5.5 (-114), Timberwolves +5.5 (-106)

  • LAL: 46-38-2, MIN: 42-43-1

  • 52% of the money and 63% of the bets are with Minnesota

• Moneyline: Lakers -235, Timberwolves +194

• Total (209.5): Over/Under -110

  • LAL: 43-43-0, MIN: 46-40-0

Series Stats

• Game 4: Timberwolves won 116-113 in Minnesota

  • Timberwolves

    • Leading scorers: Edwards (43), Randle (25), McDaniels (16)

    • Leading rebounds: McDaniels (11), Gobert (10), Edwards (9)

    • Leading assists: Edwards (6), McDaniels and Randle (3)

  • Lakers

    • Leading scorers: Doncic (38), James (27), Hachimura (23)

    • Leading rebounds: James (12), Finney-Smith (8), Reaves (7)

    • Leading assists: James (8), Finney Smith (6), Reaves (4)

• Game 3: Timberwolves won 116-104 in Minnesota

  • Timberwolves

    • Leading scorers: McDaniels (30), Edwards (29), Randle (22)

    • Leading rebounds: Edwards (8), Reid (6), DiVincenzo, McDaniels and Randle (5)

    • Leading assists: Edwards (8), Conley, DiVincenzo and Randle (4)

  • Lakers

    • Leading scorers: James (38), Reaves (20), Doncic (17)

    • Leading rebounds: James (10), Doncic and Reaves (7)

    • Leading assists: Doncic (8), James and Reaves (4)

• Game 2: Lakers won 94-85 in Los Angeles

  • Lakers

    • Leading scorers: Doncic (31), James (21), Reaves (16)

    • Leading rebounds: Doncic (12), James (11), Hachimura, Reaves and Finney-Smith (5)

    • Leading assists: Doncic (9), James (7), Reaves (5)

  • Timberwolves

    • Leading scorers: Randle (27), Edwards (25), Reid (9)

    • Leading rebounds: Conley, Edwards and Gobert (6)

    • Leading assists: Randle (6), Alexander-Walker (3), DiVincenzo (2)

• Game 1: Timberwolves won 117-95 in Los Angeles

  • Timberwolves

    • Leading scorers: McDaniels (25), Reid (23), Edwards (22)

    • Leading rebounds: McDaniels (9), Edwards (8), Gobert (6)

    • Leading assists: Edwards (9), Randle (5), DiVincenzo (4)

  • Lakers

    • Leading scorers: Doncic (37), James (19), Reaves (16)

    • Leading rebounds: Doncic (8), Hachimura and James (5)

    • Leading assists: James and Reaves (3), Hachimura, Finney-Smith and Vanderbilt (2)

Padres’ King has 40 Strikeouts in 33 Innings this Season, 17 Ks in 62 at Bats Against Giants Hitters

Cal Quantrill (Marlins) @ Dodgers — 3:10pm on MLB Network

• Season: 2-2, 7.83 ERA, 5 starts, 23.0 innings, 32 hits, 20 ER, 4 HR, 9 BB, 13 K

• Matchup: Current Dodgers hitters have 118 at bats against Quantrill and combine for a .404 OBP (38 hits, 8 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 17 BB, 14 K)

  • Freddie Freeman: 8-15, 2 2B, 1 3B, 3 BB, 2 K

  • Shohei Ohtani: 5-16, 2 2b, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 5 K

  • Teoscar Hernandez: 5-18, 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

Michael King (Padres) vs. Giants — 4:10pm

• Season: 3-1, 2.18 ERA, 6 starts, 33 innings, 24 hits, 8 ER, 3 HR, 11 BB, 40 K

• Matchup: Current Giants hitters have 62 at bats against King and combine for a .310 OBP (13 hits, 1 3B, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 9 BB, 17 K)

  • Willy Adames: 4-10, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

  • Matt Chapman: 3-20, 1 RBI, 4 K

  • LaMonte Wade Jr.: 2-9, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K

Pablo Lopez (Twins) @ Guardians — 6:10pm

• Season: 2-1, 2.08 ERA, 4 starts, 21.2 innings, 20 hits, 5 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 20 K

• Matchup: Current Guardians hitters have 63 at bats against Lopez and combine for a .414 OBP (22 hits, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 8 k)

  • Steven Kwan: 7-14, 1 2B

  • Jose Ramirez: 7-19, 1 3B, 3 RBI

  • Bo Naylor: 2-8, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 3 BB, 2 K

Carlos Carrasco (Yankees) @ Orioles — 6:35pm Prime Video

• Season: 2-1, 5.26 ERA, 5 starts, 25.2 innings, 26 hits, 15 ER, 5 HR, 9 BB, 17 K

• Matchup: Current Orioles hitters have 41 at bats against Carrasco and combine for a .340 OBP (10 hits, 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 BB, 7 K)

  • Gunnar Henderson: 3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI

  • Ramon Laureano: 2-5, 1 2B, 1 K

  • Cedric Mullins: 1-7

Nathan Eovaldi (Rangers) vs. Athletics — 8:05pm

• Season: 2-2, 2.21 ERA, 6 starts, 36.2 innings, 24 hits, 9 ER, 3 HR, 3 BB, 38 K

• Matchup: Current A’s hitters have 85 at bats against Eovaldi and combine for a .286 OBP (20 hits, 7 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 6 BB, 20 K)

  • Gio Urshela: 8-23, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

  • Shea Langeliers: 3-9, 2 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3 K

  • JJ Bleday: 1-9, 1 RBI, 3 K

In the News 

• Stephon Castle gave the Spurs back-to-back NBA Rookies of the Year.

• Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy says he’s ready to start for Minnesota after the team let Sam Darnold leave in free agency.

• Twenty-two tennis matches at the Madrid Open had to be postponed due to the blackouts in Spain and Portugal.

• CBS Sports has Arch Manning first in its 2026 mock draft.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2:10pm: Tigers vs. Astros on MLB Network

• 7pm: Canadiens vs. Capitals on ESPN

• 7:30pm: Warriors vs. Rockets on TNT (or Panthers vs. Lightning on ESPN2)

• 9:30pm: Blues vs. Jets on ESPN

• 10pm: Timberwolves vs. Lakers on TNT

Photo of the Day