MLB Pitching Matchups to Watch, Insights on 10 Bets and CFP Odds Update

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: An early look at College Football Playoff odds

• Bets to Watch: Mariners have league’s worst wOBA since the All-Star break

• Matchups: Still on Twins, Joe Ryan has pitched well vs. Guardians

• Public Betting: The money is with the new-look Padres vs. St. Louis

• Overtime: Where could Terry McLaurin end up if he’s traded?

The calendar has turned to August, which means college football is on the horizon.

Right now at DraftKings, there are eight teams with negative odds to reach the College Football Playoff: Defending champion Ohio State (-400), Penn State (-350), Texas (-330), Oregon (-270), Georgia (-250), Clemson (-200), Alabama (-200) and last season’s runner-up Notre Dame (-190).

The next four contenders are LSU (+125), Miami (+170), Ole Miss (+175) and Boise State (+190). Tennessee (+300), SMU (+370), Arizona State (+380) and Indiana (+500) all made the playoff last season, but are outside the top 12 in odds this year.

Michigan, which won two seasons ago, is +200. Bill Belichick’s North Carolina is sitting at +1300. Northwestern, Purdue and Stanford are the lowest-rated Power Four teams (+20000). Nineteen teams are tied for last at +30000.

—Patrick Dorsey

Flaherty Struck Out 37 Batters Over Past 25.1 Innings for Detroit

By Craig Williams

Marlins +1.5 (-130 at Hard Rock Bet)
The Marlins have quietly been one of the better teams in baseball for several weeks now — they’re 29-22 since June 1. They’ll call on right-hander Janson Junk, who has been pitching effectively. There’s nothing in particular about his profile that jumps out at you, but he’s been on a roll, to the tune of a 2.79 ERA/2.39 FIP in five July starts. The Marlins are also catching Carlos Rodon during a stretch in which he has not been particularly sharp (4.89 FIP and 5 HR allowed over past 28.1 IP).

Yankees vs. Marlins under 8 runs (-120 at DraftKings)
While we’re acknowledging Carlos Rodon’s struggles across recent starts — the Yankees are 2-3 across his past five — we’re also not bullish on the Marlins’ offensive ceiling in spite of their winning record since June. They own the league’s fifth-worst wOBA against left-handers, and a modest .312 wOBA since June 1. We’re also bullish on Janson Junk’s recent form, especially at home, where he enters tonight’s start with a 0.92 WHIP. The Yankees are 22-31 against the runline on the road compared to the Marlins’ 28-25 runline record at home.

David Peterson over 17.5 outs recorded (-155 at DraftKings)
Peterson has been one of the game’s most underrated arms this season, and he’s entering tonight’s start in quality form. He’s completed at least six innings in each of his past four starts while allowing a total of three runs over that span. While the Giants hit better on the road, they don’t hit well — they enter Queens with a .693 OPS away from Oracle Park. And their .628 OPS against left-handers suggests those offensive struggles will be amplified against a tough southpaw.

Giants vs. Mets under 7.5 runs (-125 at DraftKings)
We’re bullish on the Mets’ David Peterson against a Giants offense that struggles on the road and against left-handers. But we can’t suggest the Mets are firing on all cylinders themselves. They’re 7-5 since the All-Star break, which is fine, but they’re fresh off of being swept by the San Diego Padres. They’re also entering the series with the league’s 28th-ranked wOBA in the second half in addition to a .659 OPS against left-handers. They’ll stand in against lefty Robbie Ray, who allowed two earned runs in 5.2 innings against the Mets in his most recent start.

Athletics over 4.5 runs (-125 at bet365)
It’s always worth considering how a team and a player will handle a last-minute rotation adjustment. The Diamondbacks traded tonight’s originally scheduled starter, Merrill Kelly, to the Rangers, forcing them to rearrange their plans. That’s not nothing for baseball players, who are considered creatures of habit. More tangibly though, we’re looking at the way the A’s are swinging the bats of late. They rank first in ISO, fourth in wOBA, and they’re averaging 5.0 runs per game since the All-Star break.  

Ranger Suarez over 5.5 strikeouts (-150 at Fanatics Sportsbook)
Suarez isn’t your quintessential strikeout pitcher. While he can miss bats, he excels by changing speeds and inducing low-quality contact. However, the metrics suggest we could see a few more swings-and-misses from Detroit tonight. The Tigers own the second-highest strikeout rate (26.3%) since the All-Star break. And while Suarez may not be a punchout artist, he will — typically — pitch deep into games. He’s logged at least six innings in 11 starts and pitched beyond six innings in nine. This is a spot in which we could see him rack up an extra K or two, leading to an over.

Parlay: Tigers +1.5 + under 8 total runs (+174 at DraftKings)
Suarez isn’t the only pitcher who appears poised to deliver a quality outing. The Tigers’ Jack Flaherty hasn’t been as sharp as Suarez this season, but he’s struck out 37 batters over his past 25.1 innings, and he has good head-to-head numbers against Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. The Tigers have won four in a row, and they’re 28-25 on the road. We like them to do enough to cover in what has the makings of a low-scoring contest.

Braves vs. Reds over 6.5 runs first 7 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
The Reds and Braves both used five relievers in Game 1 of their series, perhaps putting a little extra pressure on Brady Singer and Bryce Elder to provide length. Elder has two quality starts out of his past nine turns; Singer has four over his past 10 — including a 7.1- inning performance in his most recent start. He still has a mediocre 4.17 FIP over those 51 innings, but this is a spot in which both teams may ask their starter to soak up outs, even if that means taking a few extra lumps. 

Rangers vs. Mariners under 7.5 runs (-110 at Caesars)
The Mariners look like a much better offense on paper — and they’ll almost certainly perform like so in real life too (eventually). But for now, we’re talking about a team that enters play with the league’s worst wOBA and fifth-worst strikeout percentage since the All-Star break. That’s good news for young right-hander Jack Leiter, who has missed plenty of bats of late — 25 punchouts over his past 21 innings. Meanwhile, the Mariners will turn to Logan Gilbert, who has a 1.94 ERA and 0.65 WHIP at home.

Red Sox under 3.5 runs (-113 at FanDuel)
This position is centered around Hunter Brown, who has established himself as one of the best young arms in the game, recent struggles notwithstanding. He has a 5.54 ERA over his past 26 innings, though his 3.97 FIP suggests some bad luck is at play. Even the game’s elite pitchers endure some rough stretches. Brown is still the guy who posted a 0.82 WHIP and 2.86 FIP across 30.1 innings in June, and he held the hot-hitting Athletics to only one run across five frames in his previous start, so it won’t be a surprise to see him take off on another run of dominance as the calendar flips to August. 

How 15 Small Brands Achieved Remarkable Marketing Results

Stop believing you need a big budget to make an impact. Our latest collection highlights 15 small brands that transformed limited resources into significant market disruption through innovative thinking.

• Case studies revealing ingenious approaches to common marketing challenges

• Practical tactics that delivered 900%+ ROI with minimal investment

• Strategic frameworks for amplifying your brand without amplifying your budget

These actionable insights can be implemented immediately, regardless of your team or budget size. See how small brands are making big waves in today's market.

Get the case studies for free here.

Still On Twins, Joe Ryan (.183 AVG) Has Pitched Well vs. Guardians

Batters to Watch

• Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) vs. Jack Leiter (Rangers): 6-11, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 K

• Dansby Swanson (Cubs) vs. Trevor Rogers (Orioles): 6-12, 3 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Ty France (Blue Jays) vs. Michael Wacha (Royals): 12-25, 5 2B, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 2 K

• Sean Murphy (Braves) vs. Brady Singer (Reds): 5-11, 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 K

• Yandy Diaz (Rays) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): 5-12, 1 3B, 1 RBI, 1 K

• Bryan Reynolds (Pirates) vs. Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): 3-5, 3 2B, 1 RBI

• Tommy Pham (Pirates) vs. Antonio Senzatela (Rockies): 6-15, 2 2B, 2 BB

• Nick Castellanos (Phillies) vs. Jack Flaherty (Tigers): 5-13, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Cal Raleigh (Mariners) vs. Jack Leiter (Rangers): 3-8, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB

Pitchers to Watch

• Gavin Williams (Guardians) has stifled current Twins hitters into just a .395 OPS against in 44 at-bats, allowing 7 hits and striking out 11.

• Nick Pivetta (Padres) has been lights-out vs. current Cardinals, allowing just 6 hits in 45 at-bats for a .133/.231/.200 slash line. He has struck out 14 in that span.

• Logan Gilbert (Mariners) has a lengthy and successful history vs. Rangers hitters, allowing a .168 average and .548 OPS in 202 at-bats, with 60 strikeouts.

• Joe Ryan (Twins) has been strong against Guardians hitters, allowing a .183/.221/.341 slash line in 82 at-bats, with 13 Ks. Jose Ramirez is just 5-26.

• Jack Flaherty (Tigers) has allowed just a .161 average against current Phillies hitters, with 15 Ks in 56 at-bats. Kyle Schwarber is 2-23 and Trea Turner is 1-11, although both have homered vs. Flaherty.

• Jose Quintana (Brewers) has allowed a .188/.296/.306 slash line in 85 at-bats vs. current Nationals hitters, striking out 20.

The Money is Behind the Padres a Day After Their Flurry of Trades

WNBA

• Fever (-3.5, -110) vs. Wings: 64% of the money and 77% of the bets are with Indiana

• Mercury (-3.5, +100) vs. Dream: 89% of the money and 51% of the bets are with Phoenix

• Sparks at Storm (-5.5, -108): 67% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Seattle

MLB

• Braves vs. Reds (-1.5, +130): 62% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Orioles vs. Cubs (-1.5, +150): 79% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Chicago

• Tigers (+1.5, -160) vs. Phillies: 54% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Detroit

• Brewers (-1.5, +105) vs. Nationals: 67% of the money and 62% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Royals vs. Blue Jays (-1.5, +136): 63% of the money and 52% of the bets are with Toronto

• Astros vs. Red Sox (+1.5, -152): 79% of the money and 75% of the bets are with Boston

• Twins vs. Guardians (+1.5, -205): 85% of the money and 83% of the bets are with Cleveland

• Yankees (-1.5, +108) vs. Marlins: 74% of the money and 63% of the bets are with New York

• Giants vs. Mets (-1.5, +150): 65% of the money and 56% of the bets are with New York

• Dodgers (-1.5, +106) vs. Rays: 68% of the money and 54% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Cardinals vs. Padres (-1.5, +138): 83% of the money and 56% of the bets are with San Diego

• Rangers (+1.5, -152) vs. Mariners: 57% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Texas

In the News 

• Terry McLaurin has reportedly requested a trade — here are his top potential landing spots.

• Speaking of trades, here are the winners and losers from the MLB deadline.

• The Hall of Fame Game gave us a glimpse of the NFL’s chain-free measurement future.

• Charlie Woods is (potentially) closing in on a Junior Ryder Cup spot.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7am: AIG Women’s Open on USA Network

• 3pm: Wyndham Championship on Golf Channel

• 7pm: Savannah Bananas vs. Firefighters on ESPN

• 8pm: Chicago Stars vs. Gotham FC on Prime Video

• 11pm: Tigres vs. San Diego FC in the Leagues Cup on FS1

Photo of the Day