Today's 10 Bets to Watch, Marlins are Surging + Big Ten Season Preview

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Marlins get historic sweep

• Bets to Watch: NFL futures, WNBA matchups and tennis

• Matchups: Brewers batters have new Braves’ starter’s number

• Player to Watch: Dodgers’ Glasnow has given up 2 or fewer ER in 4 of 5

• College Football: Big Ten team previews

• Overtime: The starting quarterback that still isn’t healthy enough for training camp

The Marlins’ sweep of the Yankees over the weekend was a unique swing that could ripple through baseball in August. Miami wasn’t supposed to be here. The Yankees entered the series as slight favorites in each game, closing at -115 on Sunday, but the Marlins controlled play wire to wire. Attendance for the three games topped 100,000, a new franchise record, as the team surged to a .500 mark that looked nearly impossible six weeks ago.

This is the first time the Marlins have been .500 since April 15th. Miami is 30-14 since since June 13th, which matches the 2003 World Series squad for the most wins in 44 games in franchise history. The sweep also means Miami is now the only MLB team with a winning all-time record against the Yankees.

The Yankees, meanwhile, have lost 7 of 11 games and are 4.5 games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East and just two games ahead in the race for a Wild Card spot.

—Abe Rakov

In Struggling AFC East and With Win Total at 12.5, Bills are NFL’s Biggest Favorite to Win a Division

By Chris Farley

Bills to win AFC East (-280 at FanDuel)
This is a steep price but it still has plenty of value. Buffalo benefitted from the best turnover ratio in the NFL last season, a metric that's always somewhat about luck, so one might think regression is near. We do not. Based on Buffalo's schedule, we give them nine games where they have significant advantages, and it helps that they exist in one of the NFL's weakest divisions. Picking up Joey Bosa aids a defensive line that needed a star, and Josh Allen remains the most unstoppable player in the league. According to our projections, only the Baltimore Ravens have a higher rating entering the 2025 season, which is why oddsmakers set Buffalo's win total at 12.5 (or 11.5, mega-juiced to the over). New England is their only threat in the East this season, and to expect sudden success in Foxboro is a bit unrealistic. This could easily be -350 or higher.

Panthers under 6.5 wins (+110 at DraftKings)
We want good things for the Panthers, we really do, but again the hype is bigger than the reality. We like the moves Carolina made in the offseason. Tetairoa McMillan has the characteristics of a main event wide receiver, Terrell Owens-like. They fortified their defensive line with veteran talent, and safety Tre'von Moehrig could be special. All that said, the Panthers were a historically bad defense last year. For example, they allowed more points than any defense in any regular season, ever (534). And Bryce Young, while we appreciate his efforts to reportedly become a more vocal leader, has yet to prove he can consistently perform at a high-level, even if he had some good moments in 2024. This organization is still a work in progress, and getting to seven wins is harder than it used to be in an improving league.

WNBA (Tuesday Games)

New York Liberty -9.5 (-110 consensus)
Once on top of the basketball world, the Liberty haven't been in their best form for a long time now. Since the All-Star break, they're just 3-4 straight up, and the inefficiencies show in the stat-sheet. They're mediocre on offense, defense, and net-rated 7th overall. Injuries haven't helped, and now they're dealing with star center Breanna Stewart on the bench for at least another week, but Tuesday should bring some respite. Last week, the 8-21 Wings beat the Liberty in Dallas, outshooting the favorites (46.2% to 42.8%.) behind a big effort from Paige Bueckers (20 points). Back at home, where New York is 12-3 overall, we anticipate the requisite vengeance to mean a blowout in Brooklyn.

Fever vs. Sparks over 176.5 points (-110 consensus)
No Caitlin Clark? No problem. The Indiana Fever have accepted life without their star at this point, mostly because they have no choice. Clark won't return until August 12th but the Fever are in a groove, winners of their last five games. Their offense has been at the center of that solution, rated as the third-best unit in the W over the same span. They're also second in overall field goal percentage (46%) and first in tempo. Meanwhile, the red-hot Sparks (4-1 in their past five) have put up 95.4 points per game over their past five contests and, like Indiana, love to run the floor with ferocity (a score of 99.34 in pace, fourth overall). This is a recipe for a giant scoreboard.

Washington Mystics -5.5 (-110 consensus)
The Mystics haven't been very consistent lately. Since June 22nd, their results have gone as follows: three wins, two losses, three wins, two losses, win, loss, win, loss, loss. It's that brand of basketball that makes them tough to wager on, unless they're facing Chicago. Washington has gotten the better of Chicago in three straight battles this season, winning by an average margin of 8.6 points per game. The Sky continue to falter in every way, losing 10 of their past 12 games and rated, by far, as the worst overall program. Against DC they've shot well (47%), but they've really struggled defensively (the Mystics scored 87.7 per game this year versus their rival). We have no reason to expect any deviation.

Connecticut Sun +14.5 (-110 consensus)
Tuesday will feel like a welcome respite for the Mercury, a team that's been on the road for five straight games. Phoenix has regressed significantly since the break, net-rated second-worst in the association, mostly because of poor defensive effort (also second worst, 90.6 points per game allowed). Meanwhile, the Sun have improved somewhat, rising to the 2nd-best net rated program and playing some stellar defense (82 points per game allowed, 3rd in opponent three-point rate- 33.6%). But the Mercury need to turn things around, and Connecticut's offense just hasn't been consistent this season (last overall). The setup is perfect for the home team's redemption, but 14.5 is too rich for our blood.

Lynx vs. Storm under 157.5 points (-110 at DraftKings and Bovada)
Tuesday’s late-night battle features two of the top teams in the West in what will feel like a playoff battle. Splitting the season series 1-1 so far, we expect a physical, contentious war between two of the top defenses in the W. The Lynx are at the top of the charts in nearly every category since the All-Star break. Their offense has averaged a ridiculous 99.4 points per game and no one is shooting the three-ball better (44.6%). That won't bother Seattle, though. While the Storm's offense continues to struggle (12th in offensive efficiency since the break), their defense is the best in the league, permitting just 32% from beyond the arc to their opponents. Two teams with slower paces to boot; give us the under.

Tennis

Marta Kostyuk to win a set (-118 at FanDuel)
Marta Kostyuk may not have the raw talent of Elena Rybakina, who at times looks and performs like a true phenom, but the Ukrainian is as tenacious as any player on tour. At just 23 years old and only rising in fame the past two years, Kostyuk's mentality can still get the best of her. When she's confident she can beat anyone, seen most vividly in her finals appearance at the Olympics last year. Rybakina is the deserving favorite, a true elite in the sport and always a threat to win her next Grand Slam. She's looked great in Montreal, losing just one set in three matches, but it's been nearly a year since the two clashed last and we love Kostyuk's resilience in this event.

Victoria Mboko wins 2-0 (-120 at DraftKings)
Mboko is a great sports story. At just 18 years old and mostly performing on lower circuits this season, the young prodigy looks ready to bloom and Montreal has been her proving ground. En-route to the semifinals she's beaten Sofia Kenin, Marie Bouzkova, and her last victory was against 2025 French Open champion, World #2 Coco Gauff. She dominated Gauff, 6-1, 6-4. Overall Mboko, who's now ranked 85th, is 46-9 this year. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro is a fine player, but she's had an easier journey in Canada. At 18-16, she's also had a mediocre year, and Mboko's momentum has been palpable and influential, enough to mow through the best on tour.

WNBA Future
Sparks to win WNBA Championship (+15000 at DraftKings)
Since the start of July, no team has been hotter than the L.A. Sparks. Earlier in the spring they were still figuring things out, but the dog days of summer have revealed their potential. They're 7-3 since the start of July and they own the league's most productive offense by a wide-margin, averaging 91.8 points per game (Minnesota is second with 89.5). Their defense is far more flawed, allowing the highest total per game in the same span (90.1), but that might not matter. Los Angeles has outpaced and beaten teams like New York, DC, Indiana, and Las Vegas this summer, and if the Lynx have more major injury or hit a cold streak, the door is wide open for a Sparks' program that's feeling itself.

Current Brewers Hit .425 with .495 OBP Against Braves’ Fedde

MLB Batters

• William Contreras (Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Braves): 9-16, 1 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 1 K

• Tommy Pham (Pirates) vs. Justin Verlander (Giants): 8-15, 3 2B, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 0 K

• Luis Arraez (Padres) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 10-19, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 2 K

• Christian Yelich (Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Braves): 8-16, 2 2B, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K

• Christian Walker (Astros) vs. Sandy Alcantara (Marlins); 5-11, 1 2B, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K

• Jake Cronenworth (Padres) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (Diamondbacks): 8-19, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 K

• Cody Bellinger (Yankees) vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 10-25, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 5 BB, 6 K

• Nico Hoerner (Cubs) vs. Nick Lodolo (Reds): 6-15, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 1 BB, 0 K

• Joey Ortiz (Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Braves): 4-10, 2 2B, 2 RBI, 0 K

• Ryan McMahon (Yankees) vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 7-19, 1 2B, 2 RBI, 4 K

• Seiya Suzuki (Cubs) vs. Nick Lodolo (Reds): 5-13, 3 2B, 3 RBI, 8 BB, 3 K

• Ian Happ (Cubs) vs. Nick Lodolo (Reds): 7-20, 4 2B, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K

• Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) vs. Patrick Corbin (Rangers): 9-27, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB, 7 K

• Carlos Santana (Guardians) vs. Sean Manaea (Mets): 5-15, 1 2B, 4 BB, 4 K

• Sal Frelick (Brewers) vs. Erick Fedde (Braves): 6-9, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 2 BB

MLB Pitchers

• Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson holds current Tigers batters to a .133 average and .167 OBP. He has given up just 6 hits in 45 at bats, 1 double, 1 home run, 2 RBI, and 2 walks, while striking out 11.

• On the other side of today’s matchup, Tigers starter Casey Mize has given up just 8 hits in 44 at bats to current Twins batters (.182 average, .250 OBP). Mize has only allowed 1 home run, 2 RBIs and 4 walks, while striking out 7.

No Current Cardinals’ Batters Have a Hit Against Dodgers’ Glasnow (22 At-Bats)

Name: Tyler Glasnow
Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Position: Starting Pitcher
Matchup: vs. St. Louis Cardinals
2025 Stats: 9 starts, 1-1, 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 40.0 innings, 21 BB, 49 K, 15 ER, 7 HR

Past 5 Games

• at Cincinnati: 4.0 innings, 4 hits, 4 ER, 2 HR, 5 BB, 3 K

• vs. Minnesota: 7.0 innings, 3 hits, 1 ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 12 K

• vs. Milwaukee: 6.0 innings, 4 hits, 1 ER, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 K

• at Milwaukee: 5.0 innings, 2 hits, 0 ER (1 run), 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K

• vs. Pittsburgh: 1.0 innings, 2 hits, 2 ER, 2 HR, 1 BB, 0 K

Matchup

• Glasnow hasn’t given up a hit to any current Cardinals batters in 22 at bats. He’s given up three walks and struck out seven. Cardinals first baseman Willson Contreras is 0-6 with 2 walks and 2 strikouts against Glasnow.

Potential Bets

• Total Strikeouts (6.5): Over +128, Under -164

• First 5 Innings Moneyline: Dodgeres -166, Cardinals +132

• First 5 Innings Run Line: Dodgers -0.5 (-120), Cardinals +0.5 (-108)

• 7+ Strikouts + Dodgers to Win: +210

Big Ten Preview: Penn State Returns 14 Starters, Defending CFP Champ Ohio State Remains Favorite

By Abe Rakov

The Big Ten comes into the 2025 season with a deep and experienced field, including three teams (Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon) ranked in the top 10 in most preseason polls. Ohio State returns star receiver Jeremiah Smith, who set freshman school records with 1,315 yards and 15 touchdowns, while new quarterback Julian Sayin, an Alabama transfer, steps into a reloaded offense. Penn State brings back 14 starters from last year’s playoff team, including quarterback Drew Allar, who threw for 3,327 yards and 24 touchdowns, and will benefit from the addition of former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon, coming off a Big Ten championship in its first year in the league, now hands the offense to former UCLA quarterback Dante Moore and avoids both Ohio State and Michigan in the regular-season schedule.

In the middle tier, Nebraska and Indiana are positioned to build on momentum from last year with promising quarterbacks Dylan Raiola and Fernando Mendoza, while Michigan will rely on top quarterback recruit Bryce Underwood to get back to national relevance. With 11 Big Ten teams returning at least 60% of their production and a nine-game conference schedule that includes multiple playoff-caliber matchups, the road to Indianapolis is expected to be as competitive, and unforgiving, as any in the nation.

Click here to read our full Big Ten preview on our website, Sportmoney.com

In the News 

• The 200-meter showdown between Noah Lyles and Kenny Bednarek ended in a Lyles win and Bednarek shove.

• It’s still unclear when Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is going to be ready to play.

• The Marlins swept the Yankees for the first time in franchise history.

• Despite the postponement due to rain, MLB set a single-game attendance record yesterday.

• The Connecticut Sun’s president says the deal to sell the team to a Boston-based group isn’t done and that they’re playing in Connecticut again next season.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 12pm: Liverpool vs. Athletic Club in a soccer friendly on DAZN

• 3pm: Men’s and women’s tennis quarterfinals from Toronto and Montreal on Tennis Channel

• 9:40pm: Rays vs. Angels or Padres vs. Diamondbacks on MLB Network

Photo of the Day