Ohtani Back on the Mound, FedEx Cup Playoff Insights and 3 NFL Futures to Watch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: DPOY favorite Micah Parsons could sit out the Cowboys’ opener

• Bets to Watch: Ravens, Titans and Bengals futures to watch

• Public Betting: Bettors like the Blue Jays today

• Player to Watch: Shohei Ohtani is back on the mound

• Overtime: ESPN is acquiring NFL Network and RedZone channel

Jerry Jones is “absolutely not” confident that Micah Parsons will play in the Cowboys’ Sept. 4 season opener at Philadelphia.

"A big part of that is his decision," Jones told reporters Tuesday. "How would I know that?"

Parsons, who requested a trade Friday amid unsuccessful contract negotiations, is a major reason for any hope Dallas might have of making noise this season. He’s still the favorite (+600 at FanDuel) to win Defensive Player of the Year, while Dallas has less-than-stellar odds elsewhere (+186 to make the playoffs, +550 to win the division, +2200 to win the NFC, +4600 to win the Super Bowl).

Per ESPN, Parsons has been participating in walk-throughs during training camp, but not drills.

Dallas, you might recall, has not won or even reached a Super Bowl since the 1995 season.

—Patrick Dorsey

Hall Has 9 Straight Top-30 Finishes Heading Into PGA Tour’s FedEx Playoffs

By Jack Dougherty

Phillies vs. Orioles under 4.5 runs first 5 innings (-140 at DraftKings)
This has all the makings of a pitcher’s duel. Trevor Rogers has been one of the few bright spots for the Orioles this season, as he has a 1.44 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP through nine starts. He’s also had success against this lineup in the past, holding Phillies hitters to a .251 xBA and a .420 xSLG in 100 plate appearances. As for Ranger Suarez, he’s had a few rough starts recently, but he still ranks in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate (29.6%) and the 82nd percentile in barrel rate (6.0%). The Orioles have scored only 10 runs through their first five games in August, so this is a prime bounce-back spot for Suarez. 

Jose Quintana under 3.5 strikeouts (+115 at DraftKings)
Quintana is no longer an effective swing-and-miss pitcher. The Brewers left-hander ranks in the second percentile in whiff rate (17.0%) and the eighth percentile in strikeout rate (15.9%) this season, and this is a tough matchup for him. Not only does Quintana have just an 18.5% strikeout rate against current Braves hitters, but Atlanta also has the fourth-lowest K rate against lefties over the last two weeks (15.5%). 

Luis Arraez 2+ hits (+130 at FanDuel)
Arraez has just two hits in his last 14 at-bats, but he recorded at least two hits in five of his previous six games before this recent cold streak. This is a good time to consider him with Anthony DeSclafini on the mound. In six career at-bats against DeScalfini, Arraez is 5-6 with two doubles. Arraez is batting .350 against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks, and this is a matchup he clearly loves. 

Golf: FedEx St. Jude Championship

Tournament matchup: Maverick McNealy > Shane Lowry (-110 at DraftKings)
Did Oakmont Country Club break Lowry? After shooting +17 and missing the cut at the U.S. Open, Lowry finished T45 at the Travelers Championship and T40 at the Open Championship while having two of his worst ball-striking weeks of the season. Now he returns to TPC Southwind, where he’s finished T50 and T46 in his last two appearances. Lowry typically struggles on Bermuda greens, while McNealy ranks 16th in the field in strokes gained from putting on Bermuda over the last 12 months. 

Harry Hall top-30 finish (-120 at DraftKings)
Speaking of putting on Bermuda greens, no one is better at it than Hall. The Englishman ranks first in the field in strokes gained from putting on Bermuda over the last year, and he’s gained a ridiculous 17.4 strokes on the green in his last eight rounds on Bermuda. Hall cashed this bet last week with yet another top-30 finish, his ninth straight dating back to May 11. This price is too cheap for the hottest putter in the sport in a limited field with no cut. 

Round 1 matchup: Russell Henley > Justin Thomas (-110 at DraftKings)
Henley is a great player to target in head-to-head matchups because of his consistency. The veteran is coming off four straight top-10 finishes, and he has the perfect game to attack TPC Southwind. Henley is one of the most accurate drivers on the PGA Tour, which will be crucial this week with thick rough and water lurking near the fairways. He’s also on fire with his irons and loves putting on Bermuda greens. As for Thomas, he’s much more volatile due to his inaccuracy from off the tee. This is a driver-heavy golf course, and that’s bad news for Thomas and his biggest weakness. 

Aaron Rai top-20 finish (+105 at DraftKings)
The keys to success at TPC Southwind are peppering fairways, hitting precise iron shots into these small greens and putting well on Bermuda grass. Check, check and check for Rai. He ranks second on the PGA Tour this season in driving accuracy. Rai is also on fire with his irons after leading the field in strokes gained on approach last week, and his lone PGA Tour win came on a golf course with Bermuda greens. Rai finished T16 and led the field in strokes gained on approach at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last year. 

NFL Futures

Ravens to win AFC North (-155 at FanDuel)
The Ravens should be a bigger price than -155 to win the AFC North. This is a team that ranked first in the NFL in EPA per play on offense and third in success rate on defense last season, and all it did was improve. The core from both sides of the ball is back in place, and the additions of wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and cornerback Jaire Alexander only raise the ceiling for Baltimore. The Bengals still don’t have a competitive defense, the Steelers don’t have a high ceiling and have a low floor with 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers running the show and the Browns don’t stand a chance in this division.

Titans over 5.5 wins (-136 at BetMGM)
The Titans are a prime target to double their win total from last season. Brian Callahan’s first season in Tennessee was a disaster, as the offense led by Will Levis coughed up a league-worst 34 turnovers. Switching out Levis for No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward is a huge upgrade, and the additions of Kevin Zeitler and Dan Moore on the offensive line will help make things easier for the rookie. This team has plenty of talent with Ward, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Tony Pollard, T’Vondre Sweat, Jeffrey Simmons and L’Jarius Sneed, and it has the eighth-easiest schedule in the NFL, per Sharp Football Analysis. 

Bengals to miss the playoffs (+125 at DraftKings)
The Bengals entered the offseason needing to upgrade the offensive line and the defense as a whole. Instead, they paid Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins a combined $276 million, failed to improve the offensive line and refused to pay Trey Hendrickson, last year’s league-leader in sacks. Hendrickson might not even suit up for the start of the season at this rate. With Sam Hubbard retiring and the secondary still a mess, this will likely be one of the worst defenses in the NFL once again. Joe Burrow can only do so much to overcome Cincinnati’s weaknesses, as we saw last season when he threw for nearly 5,000 yards and 43 touchdowns but still couldn’t lead the Bengals to the playoffs. 

Bettors Are Overwhelmingly Favoring Toronto (-1.5) vs. Colorado

WNBA

• Aces (-5.5, -105) vs. Valkyries: 63% of the money and 53% of the bets are with Las Vegas

MLB

• Giants (-1.5, +114) vs. Pirates: 62% of the money and 57% of the bets are with San Francisco

• Orioles vs. Phillies (-1.5, +126): 89% of the money and 76% of the bets are with Philadelphia

• Guardians (+1.5, -138) vs. Mets (-1.5, +115): 79% of the money is with New York, while the bets are 50/50

• Reds (+1.5, -178) vs. Cubs (-1.5, +146): 67% of the money is with Chicago, but 59% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Yankees (-1.5, +126) vs. Rangers (+1.5, -150): 64% of the money is with New York, but 56% of the bets are with Texas

• Blue Jays (-1.5, -152) vs. Rockies: 97% of the money and 88% of the bets are with Toronto

• Rays (-1.5, +142) vs. Angels (+1.5, -172): 52% of the money is with Tampa Bay, but 62% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Cardinals vs. Dodgers (-1.5, -102): 94% of the money and 80% of the bets are with Los Angeles

• Astros (-1.5, +150) vs. Marlins (+1.5, -182): 66% of the money is with Houston, but the bets are 50/50

• Royals vs. Red Sox (-1.5, +146): 84% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Boston

• Brewers (+1.5, -176) vs. Braves: 85% of the money and 85% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• White Sox vs. Mariners (-1.5, -118): 93% of the money and 84% of the bets are with Seattle

• Padres (-1.5, +106) vs. Diamondbacks (+1.5, -128): 57% of the money is with San Diego, but 59% of the bets are with Arizona

Shohei Ohtani Takes the Mound a Week After Leaving Due To Cramping

Name: Shohei Ohtani
Team: Los Angeles Dodgers (66-48)
Position: Starting Pitcher/Designated Hitter
Matchup: vs. St. Louis Cardinals (57-58)
2025 Stats (Pitching): 0-0, 2.40 ERA, 15.0 IP, 4 ER, 17 K, 5 BB, 1.27 WHIP

Past 5 Pitching Starts

• at Cincinnati (7/30): ND, 3.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K

• vs. Minnesota (7/21): ND, 3.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K

• at San Francisco (7/12): ND, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

• vs. Houston (7/5): ND, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

• at Kansas City (6/28): ND, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K

Matchup

• Ohtani has allowed 3 hits in 12 at-bats vs. current Cardinals hitters, striking out 8. Lars Nootbaar has struck out in all 3 plate appearances. Nolan Gorman is 2-3 with a HR.

Potential Bets

• Strikeouts (4.5): Over +102, Under -128

• 3+ Strikeouts: -800

• 4+ Strikeouts: -270

• 5+ Strikeouts: +100

• 6+ Strikeouts: +194

• 7+ Strikeouts: +400

In the News 

• ESPN is acquiring NFL Network and RedZone channel.

• Rory McIlroy skipping this week’s tournament has one PGA Tour veteran “very concerned.”

• Jordan Addison’s long-awaited suspension has come down.

• George Kittle is NOT happy about one of the NFL’s newest rules.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 1:10pm: Guardians vs. Mets or Twins vs. Tigers on MLB Network

• 4:10pm: Cardinals vs. Dodgers on MLB Network

• 7:15pm: Brewers vs. Braves on FS1

• 9:40pm: Padres vs. Diamondbacks on MLB Network

Photo of the Day