10 Bets to Watch + Shedeur is Getting the Start and the NFL Might Be Waiting Longer for Arch

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Is Arch Manning already out of the 2026 NFL Draft?

• Bets to Watch: Padres are 36-19 at Petco Park with a +56 run differential

• Game of the Day: Future Hall of Famers face off at Dodger Stadium

• Player to Watch: Shedeur Sanders gets the preseason start

• Overtime: A key Chargers player sustained a crushing injury in practice Thursday

Archie Manning has a message for NFL teams that might be aiming to tank for Arch Manning in 2025:

"Arch isn't going to do that," the elder Manning told Texas Monthly when asked about his grandson declaring for the 2026 NFL Draft. "He'll be at Texas."

Archie told Texas Monthly that he hadn’t discussed the subject with Arch, so this isn’t a full-on, definitive declaration. But teams in the mix for the No. 1 pick might want to take notice.

At ESPNBET, the Browns (4.5) have the lowest win total number of the season. The Saints, Giants, Jets and Titans are next at 5.5, with the Panthers and Raiders at 6.5.

Manning was recently the favorite to go with the top pick, but he since has sunk in the odds. Garrett Nussmeier (+340) is the favorite at FanDuel, with Cade Klubnik and LaNorris Sellers (+380) next, followed by Drew Allar (+470) and then Manning (+850).

—Patrick Dorsey

Sanchez Gave Up 2 or Fewer Earned Runs in 11 of Past 12 Starts for Phillies

By Craig Williams

Astros moneyline (-120 at ESPNBET)
It doesn’t appear as if the going will get any better for the Yankees. Not on paper at least. While both the Yankees and Astros enter the contest 4-6 over their past 10, the Astros have fared significantly better offensively during that stretch though, ranking top 10 in wOBA compared to the Yankees, who rank bottom 10. The ‘Stros will also turn to budding ace Hunter Brown while the Yankees are calling on rookie Cam Schittler to deliver in a difficult spot.

Yankees under 4.5 runs alternate (-180 at FanDuel)
The Yankees have struggled offensively over their recent stretch of poor play. Aaron Judge’s return will eventually help matters, but it won’t be a shock to see them continue to scuffle against Hunter Brown. Brown has delivered two quality outings (12 IP, 2 ER, 0.92 WHIP) after a rough three-start stretch. He’s looking a lot more like the guy who allowed seven earned runs across 42.1 innings (seven starts) from May 27 through July 2.

Mets under 4.5 runs alternate (-178 at FanDuel)
The Mets are 2-8 over the past 10, and own a league-worst .282 wOBA since the All-Star break. They produce worse offensive numbers on the road, and this isn’t just any road game. The Brewers rank fifth in ERA in the second half, and they enter with the game’s best record. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has been effective across five starts, posting a 2.22 ERA and microscopic 0.64 WHIP over 28.1 innings.

Brewers moneyline (-125 at bet365)
We’re not ready to bet against the red-hot Brew Crew, especially against the reeling Mets, who were just swept at home by the Cleveland Guardians. The Brewers rank top five in team ERA and wOBA, and they enter tonight’s contest riding a six-game winning streak. Perhaps a day off can cool them down a bit, but they’re 36-20 on their home turf, so it certainly appears as if the Mets are in for another long series.

Kodai Senga under 15.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings)
Senga’s struggles have played a significant role in the Mets’ scuffles as a whole. He is only averaging 4.0 innings per start across his past four, and he owns a 6.19 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over that span. Senga’s form hasn’t suggested that he’ll be up for a lengthy start against a team hitting as well as the Brewers are at the moment.

Marlins moneyline (-115 at BetMGM)
The Marlins and Braves are moving in opposite directions — last night’s win by Atlanta notwithstanding. The Marlins have won six of their past 10, while the Braves have lost six of 10. The Marlins are calling on Edward Cabrera, who owns a 2.28 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his past eight starts (47.1 innings). The Marlins are 28-27 on the road while the Braves enter tonight’s divisional tilt 27-29 at Truist Park.

Braves under 3.5 runs (+100 at FanDuel)
We’re leaning into Marlins’ right-hander Edward Cabrera, who has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his past eight turns. He’s averaging nearly six innings across that stretch, so we’re not talking about a guy making 1.5 trips through the order before turning things over to the ‘pen. Making matters bleaker for the Braves are the continued absences of Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley.

Rangers +1.5 (-155 at Fanatics)
Even if the Phillies ultimately win, we like the Rangers to protect their home turf and keep things close. The Rangers have been dominant at home with a 36-21 record and +66 run differential at Globe Life Field. The Phillies, meanwhile, enter with a 28-28 record on the road with a +38 run differential. The angle we’re considering in particular is the Phillies’ diminished offensive production away from Citizens Bank Park. A less potent lineup will allow Rangers starter Merrill Kelly to build on his successful Rangers debut from August 2 (5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K).

Rangers under 3.5 runs (-128 at FanDuel)
While we expect a competitive contest, we don’t necessarily expect a lot of runs. That’s especially the case for the Rangers, who will face off against breakout lefty Cristopher Sanchez. Sanchez was an All-Star in 2024, but he’s been even better in 2025. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in 11 of his past 12 starts. As dominant as the Rangers are at home in the win-loss column, they own a .637 OPS against lefties and a .643 OPS against power pitchers.

Padres moneyline (-185 at ESPNBET)
The Padres and Red Sox are both 8-2 over their past 10, but the Padres have the serious on paper advantage at home. They’re 36-19 at Petco Park compared to the Red Sox’s 25-30 mark away from Fenway. Run differential tells a similar story with the Padres’ +56 home mark outpacing the Red Sox’s +5 road run differential by a healthy margin. The Friars enter with a stark advantage on the pitching side as well, as Nick Pivetta’s form (1.01 ERA, 0.67 WHIP over past 44.2 innings) is a far cry from Walker Buehler’s (7.13 ERA, 1.45 WHIP over past 53.0 innings). 

Future Hall of Famers Max Scherzer & Clayton Kershaw Square Off in L.A.

It’s not every day you see pitchers with 435 combined wins squaring off, but that’s what we have when Toronto’s Max Scherzer faces former Dodgers teammate Clayton Kershaw on Friday. Scherzer has 218 career wins, and Kershaw 217. Both teams are in first; the Blue Jays are 68-48, the Dodgers 66-49.

Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
10:10pm ET

• Starting Pitchers:

  • TOR: Max Scherzer (2-1), 4.39 ERA, 41.0 IP, 20 ER, 44 K, 8 BB, 1.05 WHIP

  • LAD: Clayton Kershaw (5-2), 3.29 ERA, 65.2 IP, 24 ER, 42 K, 18 BB, 1.25 WHIP

• Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+134), Blue Jays +1.5 (-162)

  • 60% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Toronto

• Moneyline: Dodgers -154, Blue Jays +130

• Total (9): Over -115, Under -105

Head to Head

• Scherzer has allowed a .222 batting average vs. current Dodgers hitters (38-171), striking out 54 and giving up a .758 OPS against. Michael Conforto (1.041 OPS in 39 at-bats) has had the most success. Shohei Ohtani is 0-3 with 2 Ks.

• Kershaw has been stellar vs. current Blue Jays hitters, allowing a .186/.255/.326 slash line in 43 at-bats while striking out 15. Bo Bichette has been successful vs. Kershaw, though, striking out once but homering in his other two at-bats.

Shedeur Sanders is Set to Start the Browns’ Preseason Opener

Name: Shedeur Sanders
Team: Cleveland Browns
Position: Quarterback
Matchup: vs. Panthers
2024 Stats (at Colorado): 353-477, 4,134 yards, 37 pass TD, 10 INT, 4 rush TD, 42 sacks, 168.2 QB Rating

Last 5 Games (at Colorado)

• vs. BYU (Alamo Bowl): 16-23, 208 yards, 2 pass TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks

• vs. Oklahoma State: 34-41, 438 yards, 5 pass TD, 1 INT, 6 sacks

• at Kansas: 23-29, 266 yards, 3 pass TD, 0 INT, 1 sack

• vs. Utah: 30-41, 340 yards, 3 pass TD, 1 INT, 3 sacks

• at Texas Tech: 30-43, 291 yards, 3 pass TD, 0 INT, 1 rush TD, 3 sacks

Potential Bets

• First pass to be a completion: -175

• First pass to be a touchdown: +10000

• To throw a TD pass on first offensive drive: +750

• To run for a TD on first offensive drive: +5000

• To have 1+ passing TD: +120

• To have 1+ rushing TD: +1400

• To have 100+ passing yards: -210

• To have 150+ passing yards: +160

In the News 

• Chargers Pro Bowl left tackle Rashawn Slater ruptured his patellar tendon on a freak play in practice Thursday, ending his 2025 season.

• Anthony Richardson sustained an injury in Thursday’s game while in the middle of a QB battle.

• A cryptocurrency group has taken responsibility for the recent rash of sex toy throwing incidents at WNBA games.

• Aidan Hutchinson has been so dominant in camp that the Lions had to make up a new rule.

• Is trouble brewing with the contract status of a key Steelers defensive player?

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 2pm: FedEx St. Jude Championship on Golf Channel

• 6:40pm: Reds vs. Pirates on Apple TV+

• 7pm: Browns vs. Panthers in NFL Preseason on NFL Network

• 7:05pm: Astros vs. Yankees on Apple TV+

• 10pm: Utah Royals vs. Kansas City Current on Prime Video

Photo of the Day