Top 10 Bets to Watch Today + Takeaways From Week 1 in the NFL Preseason

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Takeaways from Week 1 in the NFL preseason

• Bets to Watch: NFL Futures, WNBA and Tennis

• Game of the Day: Reds looking to catch Mets but have tough Philly series

• Player to Watch: The surprising Valkyries’ rookie standout

• Overtime: Behind the scenes of the AP Top 25 poll

The first week of the NFL preseason was primarily about rookie debut performances. Here are the six biggest storylines that emerged from the opening slate:

• Shedeur Sanders had a solid debut for Cleveland, completing 14 of 23 passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-10 victory over Carolina. Was it enough to force the Browns into a real quarterback conversation — even if it’s just how many QBs to keep on the roster?

• Travis Hunter played both wide receiver and cornerback for the Jaguars in their loss to Pittsburgh, recording two catches for nine yards on offense while missing a tackle on defense in his highly anticipated first game as a dual-threat in the NFL.

• Jaxson Dart had an impressive opener for the Giants, going 12-19 for 154 yards and a touchdown, including a 28-yard scoring strike to Lil'Jordan Humphrey under pressure.

• Not all rookies had a good weekend, as Miami's Quinn Ewers struggled mightily — completing just 5 of 18 passes for 91 yards and losing a fumble.

• In non-rookie news, Jaguars kicker Cam Little made NFL history by drilling a 70-yard field goal just before halftime against Pittsburgh, which would have broken the NFL record by four yards if it wasn’t an exhibition game.

• Several competitions for starting (and backup) roles intensified during the opening week, including quarterback battles in Indianapolis (Daniel Jones vs. Anthony Richardson) and New Orleans (Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough and Jake Haener).

—Abe Rakov

Do the Improved Cowboys Have a Shot In the Ultra-Competitive NFC East?

By Chris Farley

Cowboys to win the NFC East (+611 at Bookmaker)
If you're not a fan of the Cowboys then you'll hate this play, but gambling isn't about fandom or emotion. Dak is back with his team and is a former MVP candidate for good reason. George Pickens is one of the biggest free agent signings in the NFL offseason and becomes one half of a terrifying duo of pass-catchers. Dallas was also second overall in sack rate last season, despite the fact that they often played from behind and ended just 7-10. Their front-seven has incredible potential, adding Donte Fowler to an already hyper-talented group, and now they have a new administration to boot, one that's dying to create a winning culture again. The Eagles' luck after a Super Bowl win is already being tested, potentially losing pro-bowl guard Landon Dickerson to injury, and they gave up a ton of talent on defense during the break. And while Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are on the right path, everyone's underestimating the Cowboys, including oddsmakers.

Browns under 5.5 wins (-140 at DraftKings)
The Cleveland Browns are in a tizzy. For starters, they have the most tumultuous quarterback room in the NFL, led by 40-year-old Joe Flacco and followed by an assembly of young, under-experienced talent. Last season they were the lowest scoring team in the league (15.2 points per game); we're not convinced that'll change. Their offensive depth chart is shallow, with Jerome Ford and Ohio State draftee Quinshon Johnson leading their running backs, and Jerry Jeudy the only formidable name among their receivers. Their defense remains their stalwart unit and they drafted pass-rushing expert Mason Graham from Michigan, but their lack of offensive production meant the defense spent a ton of time on the field and ranked in the bottom-five in most major categories last season. Like always, Cleveland faces a very hard schedule of prolific offenses in 2025, and we have very few reasons to believe their offense can keep up,

Bengals over 9.5 wins (-115 at FanDuel)
Joe Burrow needs no introduction. He excelled in the passing game, top-3 in most marks, and the Cincinnati offense was great on third down and in the red zone. No matter what you think of the Bengals' chances this season, you can't deny how potent they are on that side of the ball. Their defense took a major step down in 2024, very bad in the red zone (bottom-3), poor against the pass, and one of the worst in sacks (26th). They made improvements there, too, including signing Notre Dame's defensive coordinator Al Golden, who led the Irish to some of the best marks in the country. They also refreshed their linebacking crew and added young talent to their defensive line (like first round pick Shemar Stewart and former Eagles linebacker Oren Burks). With a schedule that we rate as "medium," Cincinnati is very dangerous, and we doubt they'll start as slow as they have the last three seasons (0-2 from 2022-2023, 0-3 last season). 

Bears under 8.5 wins (-135 at DraftKings)
Last season Caleb Williams' line allowed more sacks than any other front, but Chicago's offseason moves focused on upgrading his protection. New coach Ben Johnson is a massive change, too. He led the Lions to historic production (564 points last season, the second-most in NFL history) and nurtured a symbiotic relationship with quarterback Jared Goff. It is not a guarantee that the same thing will occur in Chi-Town. Still, they totally revamped their offensive line and their roster is full of exceptional talent. They also signed new coordinator Dennis Allen following a failed tenure in New Orleans. We like his aggressive style for the Windy City. Still, their schedule is very hard, in arguably the NFL's toughest division with inter-conference battles against the AFC North and other big matchups against NFC elites like Philly and San Francisco. With the rate of change they've gone through this offseason, this number is still far too high.

Tennis

Taylor Townsend to win (-127 at Bookmaker)
Cincinnati marks the second venue in three weeks where we've seen Taylor Townsend play very well. The 29-year-old is feeling herself on familiar American hard courts, beating formidable foes like Camila Osorio and Sofia Kenin in D.C. In Cincinnati she's already blazed by Danielle Collins and Liudmila Samsonova, losing just 16 games in the process. Townsend is playing with confidence and ferocity that will make her a difficult opponent for anyone, especially for a player like Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. Maneiro has ascended recently and has had a decent year (22-17 overall), but power-hitters have given her issues. Maneiro relies on baseline smarts and finesse in her returns, while Townsend resembles opponents that overwhelmed the Spaniard in recent matches (Mboko, Baptiste, Samsonova).

Maya Joint to win (+147 at BetOnline)
There's no doubt that Ekaterina Alexandrova is one of the elite in women's tennis. In the top 25 consistently the last three years, the Russian makes a living out of routinely demolishing lower-ranked competition. Currently ranked #16 in the world, she's an exceptional 30-16 this season, but like most seasons she hasn't come close to winning a Grand Slam title, only making it as far as the third round. Her opponent on Monday is not one to take lightly. Just 19 years old, Maya Joint is blazing through 2025, 39-19 overall and now ranked 44th in the world. She started the 2024 season ranked 684th. Like her foe, she also won a title this season (Eastbourne), although she's been rather quiet since. Already 2-0 against seasoned veterans in Cincinnati, we think Alexandrova won't see her coming.

Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 (-105 at DraftKings and FanDuel)
Emma Raducanu is a tough player not to cheer for. Extremely famous in Great Britain and one of tennis' most likable, her earnest nature and good looks often mean she's not taken seriously enough. That's a mistake. The Brit is 23-16 and ranked 39th in the world this season, back on a similar path that saw her threatening at Grand Slams not long ago. Since Wimbledon she's played well, and contrary to what many think she has a sterling record on hard courts (68% win-rate in her career), although she's just 37-31 (54.4%) the last four seasons. In any case, Sabalenka remains the World #1 despite a challenging, emotional year, making it to the finals in Melbourne and Paris and the semifinals at Wimbledon without winning a title. Having spent time ruminating on the last big loss, the Belarusian comes into Monday following a month of rest, and hard courts are notably her favorite surface — boasting a ridiculous 118-35 (77%) the last four seasons. We like Emma, but Sabalenka should dominate.

Anna Kalinskaya +3.5 (-102 at BetOnline)
Anna Kalinskaya is another tennis star that has plenty of endorsements and attention but sometimes for all the wrong reasons. Kalinskaya has been a consistent top-35 player for years now, top-11 last October after some very impressive showings at the Australian Open (quarterfinals) and Wimbledon (fourth round). Very active for the last few weeks, Kalinskaya has been tireless and resilient, beating opponents like Clara Tauson, Emma Raducanu, and Elise Mertens in prior events. In Cincinnati she opened with a statement win over American Peyton Stearns, taking the final set 6-1. Amanda Anisimova is officially one of the most talented players in women's tennis again, coming off a Wimbledon finals appearance. What we don't like is that her nerves have gotten the best of her far too much lately, and Kalinskaya is cold and calculated, not an easy foe when there's a momentary lapse. We like the Russian to keep it close or win.

Elise Mertens +3.5 (+105 at BetOnline)
Elena Rybakina has been through some tough moments this summer. In the fourth round of French Open she was booted out by Iga Swiatek in a 12-game third set. In Berlin, Sabalenka knocked her out of the quarterfinals. And last week she was overcome by the mystical energy of Victoria Mboko in Montreal. She had a 3-0 lead in the final tiebreaker. Still, Rybakina remains one of the game's top players, threatening to win titles at nearly every tournament. Mertens has had some good moments of her own recently, including a deep run at Wimbledon before Sabalenka put an end to the 23-game match. The Belgian is a calculated, consistent player who catches opponents when they're off their game, and we're not sure how Rybakina can't be questioning herself after her recent results. The value is with the pooch, even if Rybakina has dominated her (6-1) over their career.

WNBA

Connecticut Sun +8 (-105 at DraftKings)
The Sun are one of the worst teams in the W but that doesn't mean this line isn't disrespectful. The Valkyries are coming off a great win over the Sparks, one of the few teams to completely stifle the Los Angeles offense since the start of July. We're thinking that it was more about a letdown game for the Sparks, though, with a big rivalry against the Storm looming one night later. Golden State's net rating is 9th since July 1, not exactly elite. Meanwhile, Connecticut is coming off a loss to the Aces but their defense has improved, allowing a respectable 85 points per game since July 1. Golden State and Connecticut are also two of the worst offenses in the WNBA (11th and 9th since July 1, respectively), which adds more variance and nuance to a battle that should be closely fought. We can't align with this big of a spread on an expansion team. 

Reds’ Abbott Had Worst Outing of Season in 1st Matchup Against Phillies

The Reds come into their series against the Phillies just 1.5 games behind the reeling Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot. Philadelphia now has a comfortable 5.5 game lead in the NL East because of New York’s fade.

Phillies (68-49, 31-28 Away) vs. Reds (62-57, 33-26 Home)
6:10pm

• Starting Pitchers

  • PHI: Taijuan Walker (24 GP, 13 GS, 4-5, 3.53 ERA, 79.0 innings, 60 K, 25 BB, 78 hits, 31 ER

  • CIN: Andrew Abbott (20 GS, 8-2, 2.34 ERA, 115.1 innings, 99 K, 35 BB, 95 hits, 30 ER

• Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+164), Reds +1.5 (-200)

  • 51% of the money is with PHI but 57% of the bets are with CIN

• Moneyline: Reds -118, Phillies +100

• Total Runs (9.5): Over -115, Under -105

  • PHI: 51-61-4, CIN: 43-71-4

Matchup

• The Phillies won the first series against the Reds 2-1 in Philadelphia on 4th of July weekend. Cincinnati won the opener 9-6, and the Phillies followed with 5-1 and 3-1 wins.

• Reds starter Andrew Abbott had his shortest, and one of his worst, starts of the season in the Phillies 9-6 win in July: 3.1 innings, 9 hits, 4 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 K.

• Phillies starter Taijuan Walker didn’t appear as a starter or reliever in the earlier series, but has held current Reds batters to a .217 average (10-46). He’s given up 10 hits (Gavin Lux is 3-5), 3 2B, 0 HR, 6 RBI and 6 BB (OBP is .308), while striking out 6.

Valkyries Rookie Salaun Has Averaged 10.8 Points Since Thornton’s Season-Ending Injury

Name: Janelle Salaun
Team: Golden State Valkyries (15-15)
Position: Forward
Matchup: vs. Connecticut Sun (5-24)
2025 Stats: 10.1 points (37.5% FG), 4.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 steals

Last 5 Games

• vs. Los Angeles: 11 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals

• vs. Las Vegas: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal

• at Las Vegas: 6 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists, 1 steal

• at Chicago: 16 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal

• at Washington: 9 points, 4 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 1 block

Matchup

• Salaun scored 9 points on 4-9 shooting and added 3 rebounds and a block in her first matchup against Connecticut, a 95-64 Golden State loss in July.

Potential Bets

• Total Points (12.5): Over -102, Under -128

• Made Threes (1.5): Over/Under -114

• Total Rebounds (5.5): Over +128, Under -172

• Points + Rebounds (17.5): Over -110, Under -120

In the News 

• The MLB umpire who made history yesterday.

• When Mike Tomlin said he knew Aaron Rodgers would eventually sign with the Steelers.

• ESPN ranked the current 2026 top 40 college football recruiting classes.

• How the college football AP Top 25 poll works.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• 7:05pm: Twins vs. Yankees (or Pirates vs. Brewers at 7:40pm) on MLB Network

Photo of the Day