Ten Bets to Watch Today + Where Sportsbooks Have MLB's Two Tied Divisions

In today’s newsletter…

• Leading Off: Two MLB divisions are suddenly tied at the top

• Bets to Watch: Mariners’ Gilbert has 39 Ks in last 27.2 innings

• Public Betting: Big money is backing the streaking Brewers

• Player to Watch: Cristopher Sanchez is on a roll for Philly

• Overtime: Grades for the first-round NFL rookies’ preseason debuts

Don’t look now, but we have ties atop two MLB divisions that didn’t seem competitive not that long ago.

After the Angels continued their stunning dominance of the Dodgers with a win in extras Tuesday, pushing Orange County’s team to 5-0 vs. their neighbors to the north, the Dodgers (68-52) are now deadlocked in the NL West with the Padres (68-52), whose loading up at the deadline has paid quick dividends (they beat the Giants 5-1 on Tuesday).

Meanwhile, another team that went big with trades in late July has ascended to its own shared spot in first place: the Mariners (67-53), who claimed their eighth straight win Tuesday while their AL West rival Astros (67-53) were hammered by the Red Sox.

On July 3, the Astros led the Mariners by 7.0 games, and the Dodgers led the Padres by 9.0.

Seattle is now -130 to win the division (Houston is +105). The Dodgers are still -310, while San Diego is +230.

—Patrick Dorsey

Brewers Have Won 11 Straight, With 8 of 11 Wins Coming By Over 1 Run

By Jack Dougherty

Brewers -1.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
Will the Brewers ever lose again? Milwaukee is currently riding an 11-game winning streak, and eight of those wins came by more than one run. Since the start of August, the Brewers are batting .323 with a .961 OPS and a 168 wRC+, the three best marks in MLB. In 88 plate appearances against Pirates starter Mitch Keller, Brewers hitters are batting .346 with a .392 xwOBA. On the other side, Pirates hitters are batting just .153 with a .280 xSLG in 80 plate appearances against Brandon Woodruff. 

Cristopher Sanchez under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-170 at DraftKings)
It’s hard to overstate how good Sanchez has been this season. The Phillies left-hander has a 2.36 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP through 23 starts, and he’s gone under this line in 12 of his last 13. This is also a strong matchup against Cincinnati, which ranks 25th in OPS (.648) and wRC+ (80) against left-handed pitching since the start of July. Sanchez has been remarkably consistent on the road all season, and that shouldn’t change on Wednesday night. 

Logan Gilbert over 6.5 strikeouts (-158 at FanDuel)
Gilbert has been a strikeout machine of late, as he’s racked up 39 Ks over his last 27.2 innings of work. The Mariners right-hander now ranks in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate (35.1%) and the 95th percentile in whiff rate (33.5%) this season. As if that isn’t enough, the Orioles have the highest strikeout rate against righties in MLB this month (29.3%), and Gilbert has a career 33.3% K rate against current Baltimore hitters. 

Freddie Freeman 2+ hits + runs + RBIs (-160 at DraftKings)
Freeman is on fire at the plate, batting .366 with a 1.051 OPS in 48 plate appearances this month. He’s also hit this line in nine of 11 games in August. In 21 career plate appearances against Angels starter Kyle Hendricks, Freeman is batting .400 and slugging .667 with a double, a home run and six walks. 

Golf: BMW Championship

Patrick Cantlay top-10 finish (+185 at DraftKings)
Cantlay has a good chance to make the American Ryder Cup team, but he probably feels he needs a strong week to give captain Keegan Bradley no other choice. Luckily, this is always his favorite week on the PGA Tour calendar. In his last six starts at the BMW Championship, Cantlay has finished T13, T15, win, win, T12 and solo second. One of those wins came at Caves Valley Golf Club, which is hosting the tournament again in 2025.

Cameron Young top-20 finish (-140 at DraftKings)
Caves Valley is going to look a lot different than it did at the 2021 BMW Championship. The venue underwent an extensive renovation that lengthened the course to 7,601 yards and changed it to a par 70. This is now a massive ballpark that will favor the bombers, and Young is driving it better than anyone on the PGA Tour right now. Young led the field in strokes gained from off the tee at TPC Southwind by a wide margin, leading to a fifth-place finish. This week sets up for another strong performance. 

Tournament matchup: Sam Burns > Chris Gotterup (-105 at FanDuel)
After winning the Genesis Scottish Open and finishing third and T10 in his next two starts, Gotterp came back down to earth with a T54 in the 75-man FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The American was riding an unsustainable putting hot streak, and it ended with the switch back to Bermuda at TPC Southwind. Now, Gotterup is back on bentgrass, which has caused him trouble this season. Over the last 12 months, Gotterup ranks 47th in the 49-man field in strokes gained from putting on bentgrass. Burns, on the other hand, is a bentgrass putting expert, and he’s finished T19 or better in four straight BMW Championship starts. 

Tournament matchup: Rickie Fowler > Shane Lowry (-115 at FanDuel)
Lowry is limping to the finish line of the 2025 season. The Irishman has finished T59, T40, T45 and cut in his last four starts, as his iron play has fallen off a cliff over the last two months. With his lack of distance off the tee, Lowry will need to be sharp with his irons and putter to compete at Caves Valley, and it’s hard to trust him to do either of those things right now. As for Fowler, he’s driving the ball the best he has all season, and he’s coming off his best iron week of 2025 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. 

NFL Futures

Aaron Glenn to win Coach of the Year (+1600 at DraftKings)
Expectations are low in New York after a ninth straight losing season, which is the exact scenario you want to look for in a Coach of the Year candidate. The Jets won only five games last year and have a win total of just 6.5, so if Glenn can whip this team into shape and go 9-8 with Justin Fields running the offense, the first-year head coach is going to receive most of the credit. This team still has a ton of blue-chip talent with Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner. Maybe all the Jets need is a no-nonsense head coach who can nail down the fundamentals and raise their floor. 

Dak Prescott over 3,875.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
We don’t normally suggest season-long prop overs due to the high injury risk in the NFL, but Prescott should soar over this number if he can stay healthy. Everything is setting up for another prolific passing season for the Cowboys gun-slinger. Two game-breaking wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens? Check. Poor running game? Check. Terrible defense that will force the offense to chuck the ball all over the field to keep up? Check. Prescott has thrown for more than 4,400 yards in each of the last three seasons in which he played at least 16 games, and this year should be no different.  

98% of the Money is Backing the Streaking Brewers (-1.5) vs. Pittsburgh

WNBA

• Valkyries (+1.5, +100) vs. Mystics: 69% of the money and 58% of the bets are with Golden State.

• Liberty vs. Aces (-2.5, -110): 87% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Las Vegas

• Dream (-1.5, +105) vs. Storm (+1.5, -115): 64% of the money is with Seattle, but 56% of the bets are with Atlanta

MLB

• Pirates vs. Brewers (-1.5, +105): 98% of the money and 84% of the bets are with Milwaukee

• Rockies vs. Cardinals (-1.5, -108): 85% of the money and 71% of the bets are with St. Louis

• Diamondbacks (+1.5, -162) vs. Rangers: 56% of the money and 67% of the bets are with Arizona

• Padres (-1.5, +106) vs. Giants: 76% of the money and 57% of the bets are with San Diego

• Phillies vs. Reds (+1.5, -134): 59% of the money and 59% of the bets are with Cincinnati

• Mariners vs. Orioles (+1.5, -137): 56% of the money and 60% of the bets are with Baltimore

• Marlins (+1.5, -200) vs. Guardians: 55% of the money and 61% of the bets are with Miami

• Twins vs. Yankees (-1.5, +138): 76% of the money and 60% of the bets are with New York

• Cubs (+1.5, -178) vs. Blue Jays (-1.5, +146): 58% of the money is with Toronto, but 56% of the bets are with Chicago

• Red Sox (+1.5, -150) vs. Astros: 70% of the money and 66% of the bets are with Boston

• Braves vs. Mets (-1.5, -108): 86% of the money and 67% of the bets are with New York

• Dodgers (-1.5, -128) vs. Angels: 76% of the money and 63% of the bets are with the Dodgers

Cristopher Sanchez Has Allowed 1 ER or Fewer in 8 of 9 Starts

Name: Cristopher Sanchez
Team: Philadelphia Phillies (69-50)
Position: Starting Pitcher
Matchup: at Cincinnati Reds (63-58)
2025 Stats: 11-3, 2.36 ERA, 144.2 IP, 38 ER, 35 BB, 151 K, 1.08 WHIP

Past 5 Games

• at Texas (8/8): W, 6.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

• vs. Detroit (8/3): W, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

• at Chicago White Sox (7/28): L, 6.2 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

• vs. Boston (7/22): W, 9.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K

• at San Diego (7/13): W, 7.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Potential Bets

• Strikeouts (5.5): Over -154, Under +116

• 5+ Strikeouts: -400

• 7+ Strikeouts: +130

• 5+ Strikeouts + Phillies to Win: +105

• 6+ Strikeouts + Phillies to Win: +150

• 7+ Strikeouts + Phillies to Win: +240

In the News 

• Grading the first-round NFL rookies for their preseason debuts.

• The Brewers did something rare Tuesday: They got to Paul Skenes.

• Here’s how controversial new UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava looks at camp, according to sources.

• The Mets have a new all-time home run king.

What to Watch (times are ET)

• All Day (starting 1pm): Little League World Series on ESPN

• 7:05pm: Twins vs. Yankees on Prime Video

• 7:10pm: Braves vs. Mets on FS1

• 9:30pm: Liberty vs. Aces on ESPN

Photo of the Day